What we learned from NCAA’s female support reveals

In a 2020-21 women’s college basketball season with so many uncertainties, the NCAA selection committee’s top 16 seeds on Monday contained no real shocks or scratches.

But we learned a lot about what the team selection and selection process would be like for the NCAA women’s tournament a month from now, on Monday’s selection.

On how NET’s classifications were used to explain why Baylor and NC State were perhaps sown below expectations, here are the biggest conclusions from Monday’s list of the first 16 seeds.

NET rankings were not gospel

The NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) is the new metrics system that the committee is using as the basis for its selection process. It replaces the RPI and adds elements of offensive and defensive efficiency to a results-based formula, giving a more complete picture of a team’s skill.

But the revelation of the top 16 on Monday illustrated that the committee will no longer be indebted to NET in its decisions than it was to RPI.

Texas A&M is the best example. Despite having 19-1 overall and 9-0 against teams ranked in NET’s top 50, Aggies are in 13th place on NET. But the committee sowed Texas A&M in fifth overall. The committee did not allow a single criterion to dictate its assessment of the Aggies.

This works the other way too. Indiana is ninth on the NET, but only 15 on the committee’s board. The Hoosiers’ four defeats appeared to be more important than NET.

Mild surprises: Baylor as No. 3 seed, NC State as No. 2

NC State was designed as the number 1 seed in female Bracketology for all but one week this year. Baylor was the second seed throughout this period. In Monday’s revelation, NC State was No. 6 overall (No. 2 seed) and Baylor was No. 10 overall (No. 3 seed).

None of these points are notorious, but they are surprising. Baylor is one of the best defensive teams in the country, he is the leader of the Big 12 Conference and has dominated since the defeat to the state of Iowa in mid-January, right after a break at COVID-19. In yet another example of NET being just part of a team’s history, Lady Bears are fourth on NET. The surprising part is that Baylor is a team that could be in the conversation for a No. 1 seed more than a No. 3.

NC State’s curriculum may be the most difficult to assess. Like Baylor, Wolfpack lost two games. One, however, was without her best player, Elissa Cunane. They also won two of the committee’s first seeds – South Carolina and Louisville. This would normally indicate that a No. 1 seed would also be on Wolfpack’s cards. Instead, the committee had UConn, South Carolina, Stanford, Louisville and Texas A&M ahead of them.

“The strength of Baylor’s schedule [rated 96th] and two losses, one out of NET’s top 25 (Iowa state), were probably the biggest factors in their placement, “said NCAA selection committee chairman Nina King.” NC state losses were also above NET’s top 25.

Losses – both in quantity and quality – were a big factor in the way the two teams were placed. The exception – and there are always a few, as 14 different criteria are considered in the selection process – is Stanford. The cardinal also had two defeats, one of which came out of NET’s top 50 (Colorado), but Stanford was still the number one seed. This is a case where NET may have helped a team. Stanford is NET’s number one, which gives more weight to street games than home games. The traveled cardinal – displaced for nine weeks due to the COVID-19 protocols in Santa Clara County, played 13 street games this season.

Five SEC teams in the top 16

The SEC led the way with five teams – South Carolina (No. 2), Texas A&M (No. 5), Georgia (No. 12), Tennessee (No. 13) and Kentucky (No. 16) – on Monday fair reveal. Although I had only three SEC teams in my top 16 positions, Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee were between 17 and 19 on my list. So this is not a surprise.

By any calculation available, the SEC has been the best conference in the country this season, with eight teams among NET’s top 36. Putting five teams in this top 16 reveal reflects the data and what we witnessed. Interestingly, the Razorbacks, the SEC team with the most notable pair of non-conference wins (Baylor and UConn), were not one of the five. This may be another illustration of how good the conference has been.

The SEC also has eight teams in Monday’s pre-disclosure version of Bracketology, and all eight are comfortably on the pitch. Florida and Ole Miss could increase that total with a big push at the end of the season. But more SEC teams in the 64-team field would probably mean less in the top 16. Any race for the Gators and Rebels would come only with wins over the likes of Georgia, Kentucky, Arkansas and Texas A&M.

Long breaks at COVID-19 seemed to hurt Michigan and South Florida

Michigan, Rutgers and South Florida were ranked in NET’s top 16, but not on the committee’s list on Monday. The Wolverines, Scarlet Knights and Bulls have also had long COVID-19-related breaks in their seasons and haven’t played as many games as most teams.

Rutgers’ three defeats take the Scarlet Knights out of the consideration of the top 16, but Michigan and South Florida should be in contention. On Sunday, they both went 11-1 and were included in my last top 16. In fact, the Wolverines were number 3 seed.

But one of the unknowns in that revelation was how the committee would see teams that didn’t play as much. Now we have our answer: playing less was a significant negative factor for the curriculum.

“We looked at Michigan, but in the end we felt that his job did not justify a top 16,” said King. “It is difficult to assess all the capabilities of a team when it has not played as much.”

This is a significant clue as to how the committee will assess teams for the rest of the field in March. Any kind of significant pause at this point in the season now looks like it will hurt teams in the bubble who are fighting for a spot in the field or others who are fighting for taller seeds.

It can also be a sign that teams with a large number of games postponed to reschedule – Michigan has nine and Rutgers and South Florida each – may want to try to play as many of those games as possible.