Since I complained about this repeatedly in 2020, I must emphasize that the Federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, belatedly and without enthusiasm, began to publish realistic estimates of the extent of Covid-19 in the USA
It is difficult to describe what is deliberate as an error, but at least the opportune addendum reminds us that any fourth wave will be concentrated on people who are not among the 100 million or more who have already been infected and, therefore, have acquired some immunity as well. Possibly overlapping 100 million who were vaccinated.
Which means that the fourth wave will be largely confined to unvaccinated young people who diligently confined themselves to the end and are now mixing and exposing themselves to risks in ways they did not do a few months ago.
In the same vein, the results from California, Florida, Germany, Sweden and elsewhere have any simple correlation of mandatory blocks with successful practices of social detachment. Incredibly, one conclusion holds: like Florida, whose peak came much later than New York or northern Italy, certain places have benefited from having time to think and consider and follow more nuanced approaches to Covid’s arrival.
We may find that blocking measures arrived too late, were not followed, or are simply irrelevant to the choices people make about when and how to expose themselves to risk.