When officials last summer designed the yellow-purple four-layer system, which California now uses to decide whether people can dine indoors, go to the movies or get together with friends, they didn’t include a green layer – a recognition that a return to normal after the pandemic was far away. Now, Governor Gavin Newsom’s administration is preparing to add one.
“The likelihood of reaching that green level is probably sooner than some of us thought when we were looking at summer and fall,” said Dr. Mark Ghaly, California’s secretary of health, on Thursday.
State officials rely on a complicated formula, including the spread of the virus, to determine which activities are restricted in each county.
But a green designation does not mean “go” for all things. Ghaly said that such a label would still mean wearing masks and being physically distant. He declined in an interview to offer more details about what restrictions would be maintained or to provide a limit on vaccinations the state hopes to achieve to allow such approval.
On Thursday, the state’s director of public health, Dr. Tomas Aragón, predicted that California could achieve collective immunity when about 75% of the population was vaccinated, although that could change with the virus mutation.
The fact that the authorities are optimistic enough to publicly discuss a green level puts California in a dramatically different place than it was a few weeks ago, during the state’s worst rise. Now, rates of cases, hospitalizations and deaths are decreasing and vaccinations are increasing.
On Thursday, Ghaly and other officials, including Dr. Nadine Burke Harris, the general surgeon, received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine publicly at locations in Los Angeles and Oakland to promote its safety and effectiveness. The one-short J&J vaccine recently received emergency use approval from the federal government.
The supply of the single injection vaccine in California is limited for the time being, but officials are eager to build trust in it, particularly in the black and Latino communities. The state recently said that counties can open faster once more people in vulnerable neighborhoods are vaccinated.
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Moderna and Pfizer vaccines require two injections, while J&J requires only one dose. Although public health officials say it provides strong immunity, some people have been hesitating, fearing it might not be as protective as others.
“The only thing that came to mind when the vaccine went to my arm was to hug my mom again. And I think this is something that many Californians have not had since the pandemic began, ”said Burke Harris, who is black.
Cornelia Stevens was among a few dozen residents lined up on the Los Angeles website. As a member of the California National Guard, she received an email on Wednesday night stating that her military branch was eligible for the vaccine.
“I’m waiting for my turn. I didn’t think my time would come so quickly,” said Stevens, 50.
Under the new reopening plan, counties can more easily move from the more restrictive purple layer to the lower red layer when 2 million doses of vaccine reach residents in California’s most disadvantaged zip codes. Once 4 million doses are administered in these neighborhoods, it will be easier to switch to orange.
When officials established the system in August, Newsom said it was too early to think of a green level that would signal “go back to the way things were”. The Democratic governor said on Wednesday that officials had been working on a green layer for months “in anticipation of this bright light at the end of the tunnel”.
Nearly half of the state’s 58 counties have come out of stricter restrictions, and large counties like Los Angeles and Orange are expected to do so soon, allowing limited indoor meals and the reopening of cinemas and gyms. LA County, the most populous in the state with 10 million residents, said it anticipates qualifying for the red level between Monday and Wednesday next week.
Also on Thursday, the state announced new rules for bars and breweries, which are practically closed if they do not serve food. Starting on Saturday, breweries and distilleries that do not serve food can open outside in the purple and red layers. The state’s guidance says that customers of both, as well as wineries, must make reservations and limit their stay to 90 minutes and that the service must end at 8 pm. Bars that do not serve food cannot open to the orange layer.
The state has reason to be cautiously optimistic, said Dr. Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, head of the epidemiology and biostatistics department at the University of California, San Francisco. But she fears that the state’s plan to accelerate the reopening is “too aggressive”.
It is estimated that 4.4 million people with certain medical conditions or significant high-risk disabilities will be eligible for the vaccine on Monday. They will not be required to provide documentation, but will be required to sign a self-attestation that they meet the criteria, the state public health department announced on Thursday.
People who work or reside in congregating locations, such as detention centers, prisons and shelters for the homeless, will also be eligible, as will public transport workers and airport workers for commercial airlines, the state also announced.
This additional eligibility can create congestion if supply remains limited, said Bibbins-Domingo. At the same time, California should focus on vaccinating underprivileged neighborhoods to reduce the likelihood of future outbreaks, she said.
“I am concerned that the really advanced and vigorous look of opening with limits that are a little easier to achieve, frankly, is not going to work out the way we all would like to,” she said.
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