Why Josh Hawley’s move could endanger Senate Republicans

Hawley’s announcement that he would oppose the certification of the electoral results of at least one state on January 6 turns what would be a ceremonial process into a real headache for the Republican bases.

The vote next week will not be about a day, but about the impact it will have on members in the years to come. Trump keeps the score and will not be silently in the background. Trump is stuck with the Republican brand now and any senator who contradicts him next week is aware that there may be a price to pay for it.

It may be nothing more than retribution on Twitter. Perhaps, however, Trump’s ire is so powerful that it takes Republican candidates to the primaries by appearing in contests across the map in 2022. Republican senators will essentially be choosing Wednesday from a vote in an election that many recognize as fair. and their political futures. Hawley contacted the leadership and informed them of his plans in advance, but the announcement still puzzled Republican members and advisers.

“It is the height of selfishness to subject almost all of his colleagues to a reaction from conservatives just so that he can kick-start his presidential campaign,” said a Republican aide. “It reminds me of the brilliant strategy of ‘closing the government to empty Obamacare’. It will end in the same way and he knows it. “

Republican Senator Susan Collins of Maine said the following: “I don’t think he will triumph in his search. And I question why he is doing this when the courts unanimously rejected the lawsuits that the president’s team filed for lack of reliable evidence. . “

The real reason you need to worry about Hawley's objection to Biden's victory

And overnight, Senator Ben Sasse, a Republican from Nebraska, took to Facebook to post because he thought the whole exercise was the president and his allies “playing with fire”.

“Every public official has a responsibility to tell the truth,” said Sasse. “All the clever arguments and rhetorical gymnastics in the world are not going to change the fact that this January 6 effort aims to deprive millions of Americans simply because they voted for someone from a different party. We must be better than that. to transform American politics into an endless bloody rivalry between Hatfields and McCoys – an irreparably divided house. “

An overview

There are 21 seats in the Republican Senate to defend in 2022. There are 13 Democratic seats. It will already be a big increase in the next cycle for Republicans and no one is looking to recreate the struggles in the intra-party primaries that plagued the party between 2010 and 2014 and finally ended with Republicans losing races they thought they had blocked.

These members were also the same team that had to run for re-election in 2016, when Trump was at the top of the list. Many of them survived the Access Hollywood tape and were asked to comment on everything Trump said at his bombshell campaign rallies. The expectation for many of them was that their re-elections in 2022 would be very different. Trump leaves, but this vote means that there is a chance that his fortunes will be linked to Trump once again.

These are the members eligible for re-election in 2022 and worth watching next week:

  • Sen. Dick Shelby from Alabama
  • Sen. Lisa Murkowksi of Alaska
  • Sen. John Boozman of Arkansas
  • Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowas
  • Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida
  • Sen. Kelly Loeffler of Georgia (if she wins the second round on January 5 to keep the chair she was nominated for)
  • Sen. Mike Crapo of Idaho
  • Sen. Todd Young of Indiana
  • Sen. Jerry Moran of Kansas
  • Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky
  • Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana
  • Sen. Roy Blunt of Missouri
  • Sen. John Hoeven of North Dakota
  • Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio
  • Sen. James Lankford of Oklahoma
  • Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina
  • Sen. John Thune of South Dakota
  • Sen. Mike Lee of Utah
  • Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin

Hawley was asked on Wednesday whether he was concerned about what his colleagues would think of his maneuver and whether it would make him less popular: “More than I already am?” he joked back.

Other senators to watch

Hawley is the first senator to say that he plans to oppose the results of the Electoral College of at least one state. But it may not be the last. Johnson said Wednesday night that he would not object to any state, but that he supported Hawley.

Johnson, a Republican who chaired a hearing on allegations of electoral fraud earlier this month, told reporters that “there was no reason for more people to object. Just one.”

Ali Zaslav of CNN gathered a list of senators and elected senators from the Republican Party to watch:

  • Alabama Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville
  • Paulo
  • Loeffler
  • Kansas Republican-elect Roger Marshall of Kansas

It is also worth keeping an eye on two other candidates for 2024: Republican Sens. Ted Cruz from Texas and Tom Cotton from Arkansas.

On Thursday’s schedule: The Senate will meet at 12 noon Eastern time, but no vote is planned. There will be another procedural vote on Friday afternoon on the NDAA.

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