We are less than 48 hours away.
The state of Ohio surprised many people last week with the dismantling of Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers by 49-28. Justin Fields and Trey Sermon were phenomenal, and Buckeye’s defense made enough stops to come out with a victory in the semifinal.
Since then, the focus has shifted to the No. 1 team in the country and, once again, most experts are not giving Ryan Day many chances against Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide. Alabama looks vulnerable at first at times, but Tide has had a 12-0 season and his fifth league appearance since the start of the playoff era in 2014.
Crimson Tide is 2-2 so far in those league games, with both defeats taking place against Clemson. Today, we are looking at Monday’s clashes and where the Buckeyes may have the upper hand as they hope to hand Alabama their third league defeat.
Ohio State Passing Game vs. Alabama Pass Defense
The Ohio State passing game was almost perfect against Clemson, but it had a few bumps during the 2020 season. It is up to 21 goals after Justin Fields made six touchdown passes against the Tigers. Three of those scores came courtesy of the tight end, which was a good wrinkle. Fields completed more than 73 percent of his 1,900 yard passes in seven games. Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson are two of the biggest broadouts in the country, and Jameson Williams added a long score in the Sugar Bowl.
Patrick Surtain II is one of the best singers in the country and will likely be selected in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft, but Alabama is only ranked 79th against the pass. The Irish didn’t do much in the semifinals, but teams like Ole Miss and Florida gave Tide some big problems in the air. Bama gave up 2,900 yards and 14 touchdown passes in his 12 games this season.
We know what Wilson and Olave can do, but we will see if the Buckeyes will continue to use tight ends in Miami. Alabama linebackers have also struggled on coverage, as Dylan Moses has not been the same after his injury last season.
Ohio State Rushing Game vs. Alabama Rush Defense
Alabama is 13th in the nation’s rush defense, while Ohio’s offensive is 5th. Behind some stellar offensive moves, Trey Sermon helped transform the ground game last month. When you combine this with what Justin Fields can do (even when beaten), it can be problematic for Saban’s defense.
The Christian Barmore Tide nose tackle is really good, but again the linebacking unit hasn’t been great. We’ll see what kind of involvement Mestre Teague can have on Monday. It looks like the real freshman Miyan Williams didn’t make the trip.
Alabama Passing Game vs. Ohio State Pass Defense
As we saw at the Sugar Bowl, this is likely to be the biggest incompatibility of the game. Shaun Wade was burned for 139 yards and two goals against Cornell Powell, so what can we expect against Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith and his final Heisman caller? I can’t imagine Jaylen Waddle being close to 100 percent, but his presence would only make things more difficult for Kerry Coombs.
The positives for the state of Ohio? Sevyn Banks is playing good football and young people like Lathan Ransom have also emerged recently. Josh Proctor has been better than what we saw from Marcus Hooker at the beginning, but he missed at least three interceptions in the last few games. Buckeyes may need these twists if there is a chance to bring Maré down, and putting pressure on Mac Jones may be the key to making some mistakes.
I collected all 21 DeVonta Smith scrimmage touchdowns this season.
He’s an absolute joy to watch pic.twitter.com/54zltu0XpY
– James Simpson (@JS_Football) January 3, 2021
Alabama Rushing vs. Game Ohio State Rush Defense
The defense of the state of Ohio is extremely good (No. 2 nationally) and was very much on display against Travis Etienne and the Tigers. However, Alabama’s offensive line is one of the best in America and Najee Harris is a very different type of attacker. The trench game is elite even without the Rimington Trophy winner, Landon Dickerson. Alabama recently won the Joe Moore Award for the most notable offensive line in college football.
The good news is that Mac Jones doesn’t compare to Trevor Lawrence as an aggressor. The Heisman finalist ran for just three yards and a goal in 12 games this season. Harris, on the other hand, ran more than six yards per attempt and scored 24 touchdowns. With the likelihood that the state of Ohio will drop some guys on Monday night, the Crimson Tide gains an advantage here.
Ohio State vs. Alabama Coaching
Two of the best technical teams in America will be on display, but we have to give the advantage to a program that is disputing its sixth CFP and the fifth game of the championship under the command of Nick Saban. Steve Sarkisian was an ace and that certainly helped him get his new job in Austin.
Ryan Day and Kevin Wilson had the Buckeye attack buzzing against the Tigers, but we still have all kinds of questions about the defense; especially against an enemy like the Crimson Tide. It is also worth remembering that this is not a dominant Alabama defense as we have seen in the past. We expect a lot of scores, as the over / under score is currently 75 points.
The Buckeyes are an eight-point underdog for Monday night’s event, as they seek to get even more stunning than last week. If we were to look at which team has an advantage in each position, it would probably look something like this:
| QB | OL | RB | WR | YOU | DL | LB | DB | ST | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO STATE | √ | PUSH | √ | √ | √ | ||||
| ALABAMA | PUSH | √ | √ | √ | √ |
Mac Jones had a better season than Justin Fields, but there is no doubt who is the most talented quarterback. For the Buckeyes to win, we will need the Clemson version instead of what we saw against Northwestern. Alabama was awarded for having the best offensive line in the country, but I think it’s a push with Landon Dickerson missing in the middle.
Trey Sermon has been amazing lately, but Najee Harris gives Tide an advantage in the defensive field. We’ll see if Jaylen Waddle can make it, as he and DeVonta Smith are the most passable pair in the country. Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson are not far behind, however, and if Waddle can’t go, that’s a push or maybe even a slight advantage for the Buckeyes.
Alabama’s defensive line is not as strong as in previous years. The state of Ohio has the best unit, but we are well aware of the rumors that can affect who is available to Larry Johnson. Tide’s linebackers have not been doing very well this year, and this is especially true in passing coverage. Neither side performed very well, but Patrick Surtain II and company got the advantage there. Alabama kicker Will Reichard hit all 77 attempts for extra points and is 13 out of 13 on field goals.
Ryan Day faces a difficult task against an experienced coach, star quarterback, winner of the Heisman Trophy and one of the most explosive attacks in the country. Buckeyes will need to be almost perfect to turn the tide. A performance similar to what we saw in New Orleans may be enough to solve the problem.