Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is due to release the first quarter delivery numbers next week. The latest figures will come at a time when the company’s stock has seen a liquidation since February and a shortage of chips has forced many automakers to cut production.
Optimistic expectations for Tesla: Although Tesla did not give an approximate figure for 2021 deliveries, the continued sales momentum is likely to continue. The company is closing a year in which it delivered a record 499,550 vehicles.
First quarter deliveries are expected at 170,000 units, which suggests an increase of 92% year on year, said analyst Joseph Spak of RBC Capital Markets, citing checks and data reported regionally.
This represents a 6% decline from the previous quarter and a reduction from Spak’s previous estimate of 182,000.
Dividing deliveries by model, the RBC analyst estimates 164,800 deliveries of Model 3 / Y and 5,300 deliveries of Model S / X.
Tesla may have produced 170,000 cars in the quarter, with 96,000 expected to be launched from its Fremont plant and 74,000 from its Shanghai Giga, Spak said.
The market is pricing a bullish figure for the quarter, judging by the options market negotiations.
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Tesla’s Momentum in China intact: Tesla started selling model Y vehicles made in China earlier this year. The vehicle is seen as a disruptive factor in the company’s main Chinese market, as it is competitively priced compared to SUVs from similarly positioned traditional car makers.
The slowdown in sales of Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers, such as NIO Limited (NYSE: NIO), XPeng Inc. (NYSE: XPEV) and Li Auto Inc. (NASDAQ: LI) was partially responsible for Tesla’s competition. Even with these domestic companies reporting monthly drops in February deliveries, Tesla recorded an 18% increase.
Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said he believes Tesla is on track to follow a trajectory of more than 200,000 units in China this year, which remains a key element for the company, reaching its number of 750,000 to 800,000 in the year.
After a series of price cuts last year, the company has recently started raising vehicle prices, which reinforces the strength of demand.
What to watch in Tesla’s first quarter report: When Tesla reports its first quarter results, the focus will likely be on financial metrics, such as gross margins and cash flow, as well as technology and future development, said Spak of RBC.
The analyst expects the company to clarify how the chip shortage is affecting Tesla.
The downside risk may exist for planned consensus deliveries from 831,000 to 2021, particularly the number for the second quarter, due to chip shortages, he said.
On Friday, Nio said it was interrupting production at its factory for five days due to a shortage of chip supplies, and the automaker also reduced its forecast for deliveries for the first quarter.
RBC has an industry performance rating on Tesla shares.
TSLA Price Action: In the latest check, Tesla’s shares fell 4.28% on Friday, to $ 613.
Related link: Tesla raises model 3 prices for the second time in a month
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