Republican MP Mike Garcia of Santa Clarita barely managed to get re-elected in a district that rejected President Trump and voted for Democrat Joe Biden. Still, the congressman voted last week to protect Trump from impeachment.
How will Garcia’s anti-impeachment stance affect voters in the district when the former Navy fighter pilot is re-elected in 2022?
No one can see that far ahead, but it is hard to imagine that it will help you. It will probably hurt.
In contrast, deputy David Valadao of Hanford in the San Joaquin valley voted to impeach Trump on charges of inciting the insurrection of his supporters who invaded the U.S. Capitol to block certification of Biden’s victory. Valadão was one of only 10 Republican members of the House to resist the president and the only one in California.
Chances are good that it will help with the dairy farmer’s re-election candidacy next year in a highly competitive district.
The 25th district of Garcia, which covers the Antelope and Simi valleys, voted for Biden by a margin of 10 percentage points, according to the non-partisan California Target Book, which tracks legislative and parliamentary disputes. But Garcia won a fragile 333 votes out of almost 339,000.
The defeated Democrat was former state deputy Christy Smith. She originally lost to Garcia last spring in a special election to fill a vacancy created by Democrat Katie Hill’s resignation. Smith plans to challenge Garcia again next year.
The competitive district has been gaining Democratic electoral registration. In November, Democrats outperformed Republicans by 7.5 percentage points.
So why did Garcia vote to protect a president who was rejected by his voters in November?
“I don’t understand the positive,” said Darry Sragow, a former Democratic strategist who publishes the California Target Book. “It is difficult to imagine Donald Trump emerging as a hero and avenged.
“You could write the TV ad in five minutes: filming the riot on the Capitol, mentioning the Capitol police officer who died. “And even after that, the fellow member of Congress voted for the insurrection.” You don’t even have to mention Donald Trump. “
This would force Garcia to spend precious campaign time and money denying that he supported an insurrection.
Garcia’s explanation for his vote in the House was this: “With the Trump administration only a few days away, the vote to impeach the president is nothing more than a political theater that risks dividing us even further at a time when we need to get together.
“I ask my colleagues on both sides of the aisle to stop playing political games.”
Too bad that Garcia and his colleagues – and the president – didn’t try to “unite” years ago.
Valadão’s 21st district in the agricultural belt is similar to Garcia’s politically, voting for Biden by a margin of almost 11 percentage points. But voters narrowly chose Valadão over Democratic incumbent TJ Cox for less than 1 point. Democrats have an advantage of 16 percentage points in the electoral register.
“The only California Republican who got it right [on impeachment] it’s Valadao, ”says Sragow.
Valadão explained it this way: “President Trump was undoubtedly a driving force in catastrophic events… in encouraging masses of protesters to incite violence against elected officials, officials and our representative democracy….
“I have to go with my instinct and vote on my conscience. [Trump’s] inciting rhetoric was anti-American, abhorrent and an absolutely objectionable offense. It is time to put the country above politics. “
This is laudatory. But let’s be honest: political calculations drive most political decisions.
Valadão, unlike Garcia, knows the pain of losing an election to Congress. In 2018, a blue anti-Trump wave swept seven Republican members of the House in California, including Valadao. Cox beat him then. And in his fight back, Valadao knocked out Cox.
As an important retired legislative advisor used to remind me, “Your position depends on where you sit.”
Whether you sit in a Republican – or Democratic – caucus – your position on an important issue will largely depend on the consensus of your party colleagues. And consensus is usually shaped by the party leader.
But the leader is often following the caucus. House minority leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Bakersfield) was a puppet of Trump for four years and his anti-impeachment stance came as no surprise. But he is likely to be leading his conservative colleagues in the direction they insist on going.
“McCarthy has to agree with the caucus,” says Sragow. “He wants to keep his job and become a speaker someday. He had no choice. He’s a very smart guy. He moderated his comments. “
In the House impeachment debate, McCarthy finally started to move away from Trump, recognizing that “the president has a responsibility for [the] attack on Congress by mafia rebels. “
But “an impeachment vote will further divide the nation,” he said. McCarthy proposed a censorship resolution instead.
It is a little late to express concern about a divided nation. And instead of a slap, Trump needed to be kicked for ruining America’s proud tradition of peaceful power transfer.
Deputy Young Kim of Fullerton is another new Republican member of the House who could be harmed by her vote against impeachment. It represents the competitive 39º District, where Biden won by 10 percentage points. She beat a titleholder by just 1.2 points.
There is a wildcard in all of this. Each district will be redesigned before next year’s elections. But remapping is unlikely to help Republicans because their number has dropped since the last redistribution, a decade ago.
“Republicans who won seats for Democrats and opposed impeachment were playing with fire,” says Sragow.
Whether it will still be burning next year will depend a lot on how Trump behaves.