London – Donald Trump’s administration was unconventional in the view of many U.S. allies and part of the international reaction on the day of inauguration to the change in Washington did not follow diplomatic norms.
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said he was “very relieved that Joe Biden will be sworn in as president and transferred to the White House”.
“After 4 long years, Europe has a friend in America,” said Ursula Von der Leyen, president of the governing body of the European Union.
Will had a different view. President Hassan Rouhani, whose country was hit by round after round of damaging economic sanctions under Trump’s administration, said: “The era of a tyrant is over today.”
In Moscow, Vladimir Putin’s spokesman insisted that “nothing is going to change for Russia”.
Perhaps the most sincere comment came from Nicola Sturgeon, the government leader in Scotland, who said he was “very happy to say ‘cheerio’ to Donald Trump”, adding, “Don’t hurry back.”
There were suggestions that Trump could take refuge post-presidential at one of his golf clubs in Scotland. This visit was discouraged by Sturgeon herself, and not just because of the coronavirus.
But as much as a change in management has been anticipated among America’s allies and adversaries, no magic switch will be triggered to change all the problems that existed under – and in many cases was exacerbated by – the outgoing US president.
There is an understanding in Europe and elsewhere that there will not be a complete reversal of course in US foreign policy.
Yes, President Biden said the US will again adhere to the Paris Climate Agreements, but what does that mean? Paris was a declaration of intent, and the world will be waiting to see what specific cuts in greenhouse gas emissions the Biden government will actually commit to.
Likewise, Biden’s team said that bring the USA back in the nuclear deal with Iran, if Tehran goes back to compliance. But what price can Tehran demand to reduce its nuclear fuel refinement? What expansion of that agreement to curb Iran’s disruptive non-nuclear activities, including state sponsorship of terrorism, could the new government insist on?
European allies certainly hope that the Biden government will reengage, adopt a more cooperative approach to solving the world’s biggest problems. The arriving team has clearly suggested intentions to do just that.
Maurizio Gambarini / picture alliance / Getty
But these allies know that not all elements of Trump’s foreign policy will be reversed.
Anthony Blinken, Biden’s choice of Secretary of State, confirmed, for example, that the U.S. embassy, so controversially moved by the Trump administration to Jerusalem in 2017, is continuing. Some of America’s closest European allies were quick to condemn that movement.
Overall, America’s allies are approaching the new White House with optimism, but it is an optimism tempered by a caution learned in the past four years.
They know that Trumpism and the 74 million Americans who voted for the last president represent a real thing, and that it will not just disappear after the inauguration ceremony on Capitol Hill on Wednesday.
Behind every comment welcoming the United States on Wednesday was an implicit concern that many in the US have demonstrated a willingness to sit outside that herd.
The hope is that Biden’s presidency will restore the post-World War II balance and the shared purpose that united the United States with its allies. But there is no longer any illusion that the bond is unbreakable.