The first fight for the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) 2021 title comes to pay-per-view (PPV) this Saturday (February 13, 2021) when welterweight champion Kamaru Usman meets the emerging teammate who became challenger Gilbert Burns at UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main ESPN + PPV card will also see Maycee Barber return from injury against Alexa Grasso and Pedro Munhoz to fight back Jimmie Rivera in what appears to be a brutal bantamweight war.
Four “preliminary” undercard matches from UFC 258 have yet to be examined (check out the first batch here), so let’s take a look …
155 pounds: Bobby Green vs. Jim Miller
Bobby Green (27-11-1) – who won just one of his seven previous fights – turned the corner in 2020 with three consecutive wins and a “Fight of the Night” bonus. “King” seemed to have made it 4-0 in the year against Thiago Moises in October 2020, but ended up on the wrong side of a controversial unanimous decision.
He is five centimeters taller than “A-10” at 5’10. “
Apparently submitted after a 1-5 skid, Jim Miller (32-15) showed he still had a little life left by winning three of his next four fights, including an armbar and bonus submission from favorite Roosevelt Roberts. Vinc Pichel proved to be a tougher nut to break, successfully lasting Miller at UFC 252 in August 2020.
Its 22 professional stoppages include 18 registrations.
I readily admit that I eliminated Miller prematurely more than once, but simply performing above expectations will not get you past Green. “King” is a fighter strong enough to keep him on his feet and has a considerable advantage in boxing, limiting Miller’s chances of crushing him with pressure or starting the lethal game.
Green’s volume has increased recently and Miller’s has shown an increasing tendency to weaken later. Essentially, Miller needs an early submission to win, and Green is notoriously difficult to define for anyone other than Dustin Poirier. “King” is back on track with an increasingly unilateral decision to expand and fight.
Prediction: Green by unanimous decision
185 pounds: Rodolfo Vieira vs. Anthony Hernandez
Rodolfo Vieira (7-0) – one of the most decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu players of all time – dominated during his time on the international MMA circuit before joining the UFC in 2019. He beat Oskar Piechota after two rounds in his octagon debuted, so it took less than five minutes to do the same with Saparbeg Safarov in March 2020.
He submitted six professional opponents and stopped seventh on the ground and pound.
Things went from bad to worse for Anthony Hernandez (7-2) when, after seeing his brutal knockout of Jordan Wright in “Contender Series” because of a failed drug test, he fell victim to a stranglehold with Markus anaconda Perez in his Octagon debut. “Fluffy” recovered with an anaconda finish at Jun Yong Park six months later, but fell to Kevin Holland in just 39 seconds on his next attempt.
He faces a five centimeter handicap against “The Black Belt Hunter”.
Although he is probably the most difficult opponent in Vieira’s mixed martial arts (MMA) career, it is difficult to see this going well for Hernandez. Perez, a very limited fighter, managed to stop Hernandez’s attack before finally breaking his submission defense and securing the submission. A technical and powerful physical magician like Vieira should be much easier, and Hernandez’s advantage won’t mean much if he can’t keep her up long enough to use her.
I genuinely think that “Fluffy” is better than what he has shown so far in the octagon … or at least it has greater potential. However, all that matters is what you manage in the cage, and what he did suggests bad things about your chances. In the end, Vieira intimidates him for an early finish.
Preview: Vieira via submission in the first round
170 pounds: Belal Muhammad vs. Dhiego Lima
Continuing the trend, here is another one that should have happened last year and fell apart after I had already written …
Belal Muhammad (17-3) placed an 1-2 octagon match behind him to win four in a row before racing for Geoff Neal last year. He has since achieved another streak of three straight wins, including a decision on Lyman in June 2020.
He gives up seven centimeters in height and almost the same reach for Dhiego Lima (15-7).
A 1-3 skid took Lima out of the UFC, and although he managed to find his way back through The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 25, he followed a defeat in the Finale with a decision loss to Yushin Okami. He enters the cage this Saturday with a three-game winning streak, and a victory would mark his longest unbeaten record since 2011.
This marks his first appearance since defeating Luke Jumeau in October 2019.
I admit that I underestimated Lima in his recent efforts, but Muhammad just seems wrong to him. “Remember the Name” is more than capable of standing upright, especially since Lima’s weakness makes up for Muhammad’s lack of stopping strength, and he has the kind of fight that Lima fits in the past.
The only things Lima really has in his favor here are height and reach, both of which Muhammad proved he could handle in his victory over Tim Means. Whether he decides to mix it up on his feet or make his life easier with regular takedowns, Muhammad travels to a comfortable victory.
Prediction: Muhammad by unanimous decision
115 pounds: Polyana Viana vs. Mallory Martin
A dominant submission win over Maia Kahaunaele-Stevenson in her octagon debut apparently had Polyana Viana (11-4) ready for greatness, only for the Brazilian to lose her next three fights. She got big with her back against the wall last August, catching Emily Whitmire in an armbar to keep her octagon career afloat.
All his professional victories were made at a distance, seven of them by submission.
Although her victory in the “Contender Series” over Micol di Segni did not win Mallory Martin (7-3) a contract, she did get her picture in the octagon four months later when she performed short against Virna Jandiroba. This did not go very well, as she hit a rear naked choke in the second round, but in a second round attempt against Hannah Cifers she saw Martin end his own second round to win “Performance of the Night”.
It gives an inch of height and seven centimeters of reach to the “Iron Lady”.
I invested a lot more thought in this prediction than the opening fight of the first “Prelims” probably deserves, but it irritates me a lot. Both women are deeply flawed in delightfully compatible ways. Martin – although a strong fighter and functional striker – was almost knocked down by Hannah Cifers the last time. Viana, in turn, has the finishing game and the natural strength to be an opponent, but continues to find ways to disappoint.
It is a heads or tails that will probably boil down to who does it best.
Eh, damn it, I’m going to give Viana one last chance to impress me – fool me four times, what a shame. She appears to be the most capable striker and is dangerous enough on the ground to potentially frighten Martin and prevent him from kicking, so wait for her to hold on before securing a club and substitute in the second round.
Preview: Viana via submission in the second round
UFC 258 features a top quality event and some potential fireworks scattered everywhere, creating a night of quality fights. See you on Saturday, Maniacs.
Remember that MMAmania.com will offer LIVE coverage round by round, blow by blow from the right UFC 258 fight card On here, starting with the beginning ESPN + Online “preliminary” games, which are scheduled to start at 6:30 pm ET, then the remaining balance on the bottom card on ESPN /ESPN + at 8 pm ET, before the PPV main card start time at 10 pm ET on ESPN + PPV.
To check out the latest and best news and notes from UFC 258: “Usman vs. Burns ”, visit our comprehensive event archive right here.