It seems that the uncertainty of the Trump era will not evaporate on Wednesday because Congress has not yet ended with Trump.
This week’s focus is on Biden becoming the 46th president of the United States, protecting Washington on the day of his inauguration and preparing for a peaceful transition of power after the attack on the US Capitol.
Talks between the new Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, and the offices of the current majority leader, Mitch McConnell, are ongoing on what makes the most sense at the time of the trial. Although Biden has made it clear that he wants to split the day in half to allow his nominees to be confirmed the morning before the trial, this requires everyone’s agreement. And it is not clear whether all 100 senators will agree to this, even if McConnell and Schumer reach consensus. Again, these conversations are ongoing. Advisers and members do not expect the impeachment trial to begin before next week, but no one is sure until House Speaker Nancy Pelosi makes it clear when she will send the articles.
A very important reminder: don’t take the lack of response to when a trial will start as a lack of orchestration behind the scenes. We are entering another chapter in American history where the president, the Senate and the House are all controlled by the same party and unlike Trump – who used to take his leadership off guard with dishonest tweets or improvised statements – Pelosi and Schumer are on the same page on here. They don’t even need Biden to tell them. They know what is at stake in an impeachment trial.
Once they lose that way, there is no turning back. The Senate meets every day starting at 12 pm Eastern Time, with members at their desks, six days a week during the trial. Sending the articles too early without a firm agreement between Schumer and McConnell jeopardizes Biden’s first 100 days, his ability to get his nominees through, not to mention any goal that Biden had to heal the country after the January 6 attack on Capitol. If it seems that we are stagnant now, it is because working with the potential challenges and ramifications of this test is an incredible task.
As CNN reported last week, once Pelosi broadcasts the articles, he unlocks a whole series of steps that he must follow quickly. No one wants to move on until everyone is on exactly the same page about how this is going to be.
What about double tracking
Things to watch this week
There are five confirmation hearings on Tuesday for Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Director of the CIA, Secretary of Defense and Secretary of Homeland Security. Aides say it is possible for the Senate to move, as early as Wednesday, the confirmation of some of them in their positions hours after Biden takes office. This again requires the agreement of all 100 senators. We should have more time guidance on Tuesday, when the Senate returns.
When did Schumer become the majority leader?
For Schumer to become the majority leader, the new Sens Democrats. Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, both from Georgia, need to be sworn in. The state has until the end of this week to do this. Aides close to the process say that the certification is expected to take place around January 20, but it is normal for senators not to take an oath until the day after the approval. That means it can take a day or two before Warnock and Ossoff take office.
In other words, time is fluid. Do not assume that Schumer will become the majority leader on January 20. We’re not sure.
One more thing to watch this week
The leadership has been working on how the two parties will govern the next Senate. Given the narrow majority of Democrats (a tie with new Vice President Kamala Harris as the tiebreaker), advisers pointed out that there is an expectation that Schumer and McConnell will reach a power-sharing agreement modeled after that in 2001 between Trent Lott and Tom Daschle. Negotiations are still going on, so we can’t say for sure how the deal will look, but in 2001 the deal allowed equally divided Senate committees, budgets evenly divided into committees, equal access to common areas on Capitol Hill for both Republicans and Democrats and members of both parties were able to preside over the Senate. These negotiations are ongoing, as are negotiations on how an impeachment trial can be conducted.