WASHINGTON – Democrats will need at least 17 Republican senators to break the ranks and condemn President Donald Trump after he was impeached on Wednesday, a major hurdle that would require changing the minds of lawmakers who supported him.
This is more than the 10 House Republicans who broke with the president – the most bipartisan impeachment vote in American history – that accused Trump of inciting insurrection.
Even as Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell publicly flirts with support for condemnation for Trump’s role in a deadly attack on the Capitol that targeted him and his team, getting one-third of the Senate Republican caucus to vote to condemn an easy task.
Trump maintains high approval ratings and passionate followers among some Republican voters. He still had 71 percent approval from Republican Party voters in a Quinnipiac poll conducted after the turmoil.
Condemning Trump would allow the Senate to also prevent him from seeking an elected office again, instantly reshaping the 2024 Republican presidential primaries he could run for.
But impeachment are inherently political matters, and even a trial that takes place after the end of Trump’s term would be fraught with political calculations, both for senators who could seek re-election and for those who could run for president.
Republicans control the Senate now, but Democrats are expected to take over after President-elect Joe Biden takes the oath of office as the new president on January 20. A prolonged trial could prevent Biden’s early days in office, which could be a feature or a bug for different senators.
As soon as the Senate seats all newly elected members, the chamber will be divided into 50-50 and new Vice President Kamala Harris will give the tiebreaker vote.
A handful of Republican senators have already criticized Trump and signaled he would be open to supporting impeachment. But to secure a conviction, more votes would be needed and supporters would likely seek out retired senators or other longtime members seen as institutionalists.
But it is likely to be difficult.
The result may fall for McConnell, who has a large reservoir of confidence in his caucus. If he supported the conviction, he could lead senators more reluctant to follow suit.
But for now, the Kentucky Republican is undecided.
“I have not made a final decision on how I am going to vote and I intend to hear the legal arguments when they are presented to the Senate,” he wrote to colleagues on Wednesday afternoon, according to a spokesman.
McConnell and Trump have a complicated relationship – polar opposites in personality, staunch allies in some political goals. McConnell broke with Trump last week, making a vehement appeal to reject the president’s efforts to overturn the election.
McConnell is in no hurry to hold a trial – his office has indicated that he will not bring the Senate back before January 19. This means that the trial is almost concluded under the presidency of Biden and Democrat-controlled Senate.
The factions in an impeachment trial
Liam Donovan, a lobbyist and former Republican campaign agent in the Senate, said McConnell’s apparent willingness to consider sentencing “suddenly turns an unthinkable break with Trump into something at stake.”
“I’m still skeptical, because 17 is still a scary number,” said Donovan. “McConnell’s imprimatur alone would carry a ton of weight.”
Utah Senator Mitt Romney is seen as the most likely Republican to support the sentencing, as he was the only member of his party who voted to remove Trump from office at the first impeachment trial last year. In addition, Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowsk and the retirement of Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania said Trump should resign. Maine centrist senator Susan Collins can be a viable target. And Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse said he was open to impeachment.
After those five, it gets more complicated.
One group may be formed by octogenarian institutionalists who may be looking to retirement: Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley, Alabama Sen. Richard Shelby and Oklahoma Sen. James Inhofe.
Other targets may be senators who criticized Trump for trying to overturn the election, including Ohio senator Rob Portman and Louisiana senator Bill Cassidy. Senator Richard Burr’s retirement from North Carolina is another possibility.
That still wouldn’t be enough.
Two wildcards are Utah Senator Mike Lee of Utah and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul. They presented themselves as “constitutional conservatives” and were unwilling to vote with Trump to overturn the election even before the riot violated the Capitol. But both have been very supportive of Trump and Paul is facing voters in Kentucky’s dark red next year.
The critical question, then, is how hard McConnell would pressure his Republican colleagues to vote for impeachment – and how many would be willing to follow him. Two members of his leadership team, Missouri Sen. Roy Blunt and South Dakota Sen. John Thune, face re-election in 2022 and are at risk of a primary challenge.
Two others, Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa and Senator Todd Young of Indiana, have more time before facing voters again and may be more inclined to follow McConnell.
McConnell’s position may also receive votes from ordinary senators, such as North Dakota Senator Kevin Cramer and South Dakota Senator Mike Rounds. But the highly charged policy and the deep fracture that shakes the GOP can disrupt any typical calculation.
A senior Republican aide told NBC News that the votes are likely to be there to condemn Trump if McConnell is on board. But a former Senate Republican Party official said he may need to work at it.
“If McConnell said ‘I’m voting to convict’, but this is a vote of conscience, it is still difficult to reach 17. He would need to work,” said the former aide, who maintains a relationship with former colleagues and offered an honest assessment under condition of anonymity. “This is a situation where you could easily get 10 votes. But 11 to 17 is probably more difficult.”
