WASHINGTON – With the impeachment vote on Wednesday, Republicans are on the verge of a historic decision to punish or protect a president that many say has incited a deadly crowd to invade the US Capitol in an attempt to overturn the election result. .
The decision can define the party and shape American democracy for generations to come.
Ten House Republicans voted for impeachment, most notably Wyoming’s third-level member Liz Cheney, who said President Donald Trump “lit the flame for this attack” and accused him of an unprecedented “betrayal” of his oath to Constitution.
The other Republicans who voted for impeachment were John Katko of New York, Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, Fred Upton of Michigan, Jaime Herrera Beutler of Washington, Dan Newhouse of Washington, Peter Meijer of Michigan, Tom Rice of South Carolina, Anthony Gonzalez de Ohio and David Valadao of California.
What happens next is not clear. The Senate requires a two-thirds majority to convict a president, meaning that at least 17 Republicans would need to join the Democrats if the vote is held after January 20. This is a difficult task.
The judgment of history is approaching. And for some who want to break away from Trump and chart a new path for the Republican Party, time is running out.
“It sure looks like the last and best chance to face the guy while it still matters,” said Liam Donovan, a lobbyist and former Republican campaign agent. “Republicans can speak now, or they can take the path of least resistance, but at some point there will be a reckoning, and that will have a political cost.”
The political calculation is complicated for Republican lawmakers as central party voters have clung to Trump’s baseless allegations of massive election fraud and continue to support him.
The result could center on Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., A longtime Trump ally who broke with him on January 6, when he made a passionate plea to affirm President-elect Joe Biden’s victory . McConnell told his Republican colleagues in a note on Wednesday afternoon that he remains undecided whether to vote to condemn Trump.
Others said their position could determine the outcome.
“I think if McConnell supports the sentencing in the Senate, then the votes will be there to condemn the president,” said a Republican aide, who asked to remain anonymous to speak frankly.
A Quinnipiac poll after the Capitol violence found that 71% of Republicans approve of Trump’s job performance and 73% believe he is protecting, not undermining, democracy. Among voters in general, 60% disapprove of his performance and 60% say he is undermining, not protecting, democracy.
“Political calculation is impossible for members to ignore, but if there was a time, it is now,” said Rory Cooper, a consultant and former adviser to the Republican leadership in the House who criticizes Trump.
“The public’s reaction to the attack on the Capitol is almost universally negative, according to research done since then, attaching your condemnation to these events and these events probably just softens the political impact and gives members some protection,” he said. “Elections take two years and therefore the electoral risk is low today and growing exponentially.”
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The House voted on Tuesday to approve a measure urging Vice President Mike Pence to invoke the 25th Amendment and remove Trump, along with a majority of the Cabinet, declaring him unfit to serve. It was a symbolic vote with no practical impact, as Pence made it clear on Tuesday that he would not do this, and Congress has no authority to compel him.
Many Republicans stood up for Trump during the debate on Tuesday night, accusing Democrats of being divisive.
“Why are Democrats stoking the fire instead of putting out the flames?” asked Congressman Andy Biggs, R-Arizona, who recently supported the effort to reverse the election result by voting against the counting of electoral votes in Arizona and Pennsylvania.
The 25th Amendment measure was just a prelude to the main event on Wednesday, when the House passed the impeachment article accusing Trump of “inciting insurrection”.
If he condemns Trump, the Senate also has the power to stop him from taking office again, a move that could immediately change the shape of the 2024 primaries and pave the way for a new type of Republican leader. This may not be what Republican voters want, but it does have some appeal among lawmakers.
“I think there is a considerable majority in both chambers that wants a result in which Trump cannot run for public office again,” said Cooper.
