The explosion of the travel pandemic that has hit tourism-dependent economies may be just beginning.
Tourist destinations from Thailand to Iceland hoped that Covid-19 vaccines would allow countries to reopen their borders and promote a much-needed recovery in 2021. Now, with the vaccine’s release delayed in some places and new strains of viruses appearing, it seems more likely that international travel can be paralyzed for years.
After declaring that 2020 was the worst year for tourism on record, with one billion fewer international arrivals, the United Nations World Tourism Organization says the prospects for a recovery in 2021 have worsened. In October, 79% of experts interviewed by the agency believed that a 2021 recovery was possible. Only 50% said they believed this in January, and about 41% did not think that travel would reach pre-pandemic levels by 2024 or more.
James Sowane, owner of a transport company serving tourists in Fiji, called a team meeting earlier this month and told employees to start looking for other jobs. He recently took advantage of a government assistance program and brought back some laid-off workers, optimistic that vaccines could trigger a recovery in travel as early as April.
But now Sowane doesn’t think tourists will be back until next year, and he and his wife cannot continue to pay wages at his company, Pacific Destinations Fiji. He’s taking a loan from his bank to keep some basic employees.