The strongest House candidates in 2020 were (mostly) moderate

Moderate politicians are becoming an endangered species. The most liberal Republican in Congress today is still ideologically on the right of the most conservative Democrat, reflecting the fact that the average voters in each party are also growing increasingly distant. But if winning the elections were the only consideration, the parties would probably not be so eager to purify themselves from the centrist members. It is not a strict rule, but there is much evidence that moderate candidates tend to perform better at the polls. And while the relationship may be getting weaker over time, an examination of the split vote in the 2020 election suggests that it is still there.

Using data on the results of the presidential election by congressional district from the Daily Kos Elections, I calculated how much better – or worse – each candidate for the US House did better than his party’s presidential candidate. Assuming that the share of votes from President Biden and ex-President Donald Trump represents the performance of a “typical” 2020 Democrat or Republican in each district, this gap provides a rough measure of the candidate’s quality.

It turns out that the vast majority of candidates for the Chamber performed similarly to what was expected, based on presidential partisanship. But when you look at the exceptions – the districts where Democratic House candidates outperform Biden and the districts where Republican candidates outperform Trump the most – the strongest candidates tend to be holders with moderate voting records and personal marks that differentiate them from the national reputation of your party.

Let’s start by looking at the 10 electoral districts where Democratic candidates for the House overtook Biden by the largest margin (excluding seats in the House that Republicans did not contest).

Ultimately, former deputy Collin Peterson lost his seat to Republican deputy Michelle Fischbach last year, but by our metric, his 14-point loss was still the country’s most impressive Democratic performance, since the former president Donald Trump won the 7th district of Minnesota by 29 points. The 15-term holder managed to keep his district red for so long thanks to his leadership in agricultural matters (big business in the 7th rural) and centrist reputation: he was a founding member of the Blue Dog Coalition (a caucus of moderate Democrats) and was the only Democrat to vote against Trump’s impeachment in 2019 on both counts.

Next on the list is Congressman Henry Cuellar. His anti-abortion and pro-gun views initially appeared to have hurt him in 2020, when he faced a serious primary challenge from progressive Jessica Cisneros. But it seems that Democrats were wise in renaming Cuellar, as his conservative bias probably helped him in the general election – he was re-elected by 19 points in a Biden district with only 4. And there are at least three more moderates in the top 10. : Congressman Ed Case, the third strongest Democratic candidate in 2020, is the current co-chairman of the Blue Dog Coalition. Fifth deputy Jared Golden is, by common measure of ideology, the most conservative Democrat left in the House (he was recently the only House Democrat to vote against Biden’s COVID-19 stimulus bill and background checks for sales weapons). And former deputy Anthony Brindisi’s moderate vote record is also probably why he was so competitive for reelection last year in his Trump + 11 district (after a protracted court battle over the tight election, he ended up admitting its loss of 109 votes).

It was not just Democratic moderates who threw punches above their weight. Middle office holders also represent many of the districts where Republican candidates for the House have improved on Trump’s margins (excluding House seats that Democrats have not contested):

Almost at the top of the list are deputies John Katko and Brian Fitzpatrick, who after the 2018 blue wave were two of the three House Republicans representing districts carried by Hillary Clinton – indicative of a significant cross appeal. And, in fact, both won double-digit reelection in 2020, even as Biden beat their districts by 6 to 9 points. Fitzpatrick probably benefits from his family’s long history of centrist leadership (his late brother Mike preceded him in Congress) in his centrally matched district, and Katko also stood out from the most extreme elements of the Republican Party by voting for Trump’s impeachment for his role. in the siege of the Capitol and to remove Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene from her committee assignments. Two other pro-impeachment Republicans, Reps. Dan Newhouse and Adam Kinzinger (who has been especially vocal about facing Trump), are also in the top 10, and a few others (Reps. Anthony Gonzalez, David Valadao, Fred Upton) just missed the cut.

But there are two districts on the list that are not like the others: Minnesota 5th and Maryland 7th. That’s because they really have Democratic holders. It is a great feat for a challenger with no political experience to be a stronger candidate than several long-standing incumbents with established brands, but Lacy Johnson and Kim Klacik have achieved this – probably thanks in part to the huge amounts of money they have raised and spent. Aided by national Republican antipathy towards his opponent, Congressman Ilhan Omar, Johnson raised a whopping $ 12.2 million and spent $ 2.9 million on direct mail, $ 1.5 million on digital ads and nearly $ 1 million on ads after September 1 (in contrast, Omar did not run any TV ads during that period). And Klacik outnumbered his opponent, Democratic MP Kweisi Mfume, from $ 8.3 million to $ 1.0 million – probably more impressive than Johnson because Mfume does not have the same national profile as Omar. Instead, Klacik has become a national sensation with a series of viral videos about the urban plague on the 7th of Maryland, which she won as a prime time speaker at the Republican National Convention.

But much of Klacik and Johnson’s apparent strength may be more about their opponents’ weakness. Prior to his current stint in Congress, Mfume faced charges of sexual harassment for dating an employee and retaliating against another employee who rejected his advances. And while Johnson’s vote share was 8 points higher than Trump’s (26 percent of total votes against 18 percent), Omar’s vote share was a staggering 16 points below Biden (64 percent against 80 percent). percent), suggesting the gap in Minnesota 5th is more about Omar losing votes than Johnson winning them.

Again, this may be ideology at stake: one of the most progressive members of Congress, Omar is nationally famous – and notorious – as a member of the “Squadron”. (According to a YouGov / The Economist poll from January 31 to February 2, 40 percent of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of it, while only 27 percent have a favorable opinion of it.) On the other hand, other progressives notables, such as representatives Cori Bush, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Rashida Tlaib, did not underperform Biden in their districts, and many (though not all) of the votes that Omar lost probably went to the Legal Marijuana Now candidate , Michael Moore, who was quite progressive himself. But there are other factors that can explain part of its underperformance as well. Perhaps scandal: in 2019, Omar was accused of having an affair with his campaign consultant, and the hundreds of thousands of dollars his campaign paid to the consultant’s company – who is now her husband – became the subject of a funding claim. campaign. Perhaps xenophobia: Omar was born in Somalia and is one of only three Muslim members of Congress, and many of Johnson’s attacks on her had racist overtones.

Ideology, in other words, is not the only determinant of the candidate’s quality – other factors, such as fundraising capacity, scandal and the opponent’s quality, are also important. And there were some more radical candidates who proved to be very strong candidates as well: Rep. Garret Graves, who won by 16 percentage points more than Trump in the 6th District of Louisiana, was one of 147 Republicans who objected to certifying the results of the 2020 elections. Democratic MP Sylvia Garcia, whose margin in the 29th District of Texas exceeded that of Biden by 11 points, has, on the one hand, the most progressive voting record in the House. But on the whole, the strongest candidates for the House in 2020 were disproportionately moderate.