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The UK government is struggling to cope with a huge increase in coronavirus cases, with pressure on Prime Minister Boris Johnson to impose a national blockade.
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A preliminary study said that the new virus variant first identified in the UK has a “substantial transmission advantage”, giving weight to previous fears that it is more infectious.
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A test center found that the new variant dominates its recent results.
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An epidemiologist explained why a more contagious virus can pose a greater danger than a more deadly one, as it spreads much more quickly and thus kills more people.
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Infections of the new coronavirus variant in the UK increased during the holiday period, taking British NHS hospitals beyond their ability to care for patients. Union leaders also called for schools to be closed.
A new analysis showed that the most transmissible variant of the virus could cause hundreds more deaths per 10,000 patients.
A preliminary study by Imperial College London, released last week, found that the new variant, known as B.1.1.7, is significantly more transmissible, adding weight to previous government fears.
Scientists have already hesitated to confirm the first indications of this. The new study is a “prepress”, which means it has not been peer-reviewed. But the authors wrote: “There is a consensus among all analyzes that the [new variant] has a substantial transmission advantage. “
The study said that B.1.1.7 can add between 0.4 to 0.7 to the existing R number – the rate at which the virus reproduces. The R number must be below 1 for cases to fall. The UK’s current estimated R number is between 1.1 and 1.3.
The variant now constitutes the vast majority of all coronavirus cases in the United Kingdom.
The Milton Keynes Lighthouse Laboratory, a test center in southeastern England, found that on December 18, B1.1.7 had begun to dominate its results, as this tweet from CEO Tony Cox shows:
The new variant can potentially kill more people than the old one
B.1.1.7 is currently not considered the most deadly for any Individual patient than the virus originally observed. But epidemiologists are warning that, because it affects many more people, the total number of deaths this will make it much larger than the previous variants.
Adam Kucharski, associate professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, explained the potential problem in a series of tweets:
He compared the effects of two hypothetical variants: one 50% more deadly and the other 50% more transmissible.
In the first instance, he calculated that a virus 50% more deadly over a period with an R-number of 1.1 would cause 198 deaths from 10,000 infections after one month.
But if that variant were 50% easier to transmit, the same period would see 978 new deaths from 10,000 infections.
“The main message: an increase in something that grows exponentially (ie, transmission) can have much more effect than the same proportional increase in something that only scales an outcome (ie, severity),” he wrote.
The new variant prospered despite a blockade
The authors of Imperial’s new study noted that the new coronavirus variant was increasing, despite the government’s imposition of “Tier 3” and “Tier 4” level blockages in England. “These highest levels of infection occurred despite high levels of social detachment in England,” said the authors
A blockade started in November saw the R number drop to 0.9. But those measures were ultimately not enough to stem the spread of the new variant, said Axel Gandy, president of statistics at Imperial College, The Times of London.
Under these conditions, non-essential stores closed, people worked from home whenever possible, but schools remained open.
Overall, the number of COVID-19 cases in the UK has skyrocketed:
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On Sunday, the country reported just over 55,000 cases in a single day – a level higher than ever recorded in the first wave of April, although this is partly due to increased testing, the Guardian reported.
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Southern England and London are the most affected areas, with some London hospitals reporting “major incidents” and low oxygen supplies.
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London’s Nightingale hospital – one of the overcrowded facilities created, but rarely used in the first wave – is scheduled to reopen, reported London’s Evening Standard newspaper.
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Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has long resisted calls for a national blockade, is under pressure to do so and will meet with government officials on Monday.
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The National Education Union urged teachers not to work on Monday, prompting many primary schools to cancel classes. Secondary schools are already closed at least until mid-month.
The number of reported cases increased rapidly after Christmas, which was expected due to the holiday lull:
The patients in the hospital have already passed the peak of April:
Deaths started to increase right after Christmas:
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