Professional gambler Mark DeRosa was on a plane returning from Atlantic City after last year’s Super Bowl, when he had a clear vision of what would become one of the highest scores in his career.
DeRosa believed that Tom Brady would leave New England in the off-season and that Tampa Bay was one of the most likely landing sites. Sportsbooks, however, disagreed and listed the Buccaneers at around 50-1 in their chances of where Brady would play in the 2020 season. Bookmakers have made Brady’s return to New England a big favorite.
“The books were evaluating as if it was a 75% chance of him coming back [to New England]”Said DeRosa.” I thought there was a 75% chance that he would not return, so the market was really wrong. “
While in Atlantic City for the Super Bowl, DeRosa placed two $ 500 bets with DraftKings on Brady playing with the Buccaneers, at 50-1 and 40-1. Then, on the plane back to Florida, he decided that he wanted to land more in Tampa Bay to win the NFC and the Super Bowl the following season. He would need to convince his former college friend and betting partner Zack White that Bucs were a good bet.
Tampa Bay had just finished a 7-9 campaign, in which quarterback Jameis Winston threw 30 interceptions. It was the Buccaneers’ third straight losing streak, and they were considered long-range shots again, with Super Bowl chances in the 65-1 range.
“He had to convince me a little,” recalled White, a respected gambler in Las Vegas. “Your reasoning basically came for Brady to go there.”
White asked DeRosa what the odds were for Brady to land in Tampa Bay, “because if he doesn’t, that bet will suck.”
DeRosa said he had a well-founded guess, based on various indications that Brady was leaving New England. DeRosa recalled a 2018 ESPN story highlighting a feud between Brady, Patriots coach Bill Belichick, and owner Robert Kraft. In August 2019, DeRosa read that Brady had put his Massachusetts mansion up for sale and found it significant that the six-time Super Bowl champion defender let his contract expire for the first time in his career.
DeRosa believed that Tampa Bay – because of coach Bruce Arians’ discontent with Winston, a squad full of game makers, hot weather and a lack of state taxes – was one of the few attacks for Brady.
“The worst scenario is that you have [Tampa Bay] 30-1 to win the NFC and 60-1 to the Super Bowl, and that’s just the market price, “DeRosa argued with White last February.” If it happens, they will be 5-1 and 10-1, and I really think it will happen. I don’t think he’ll be back. I think he’s going somewhere else. “
White became convinced and went to work in Las Vegas, betting several thousand dollars on the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl 65-1 and 60-1. Meanwhile, back in Florida, DeRosa had been monitoring the odds on New Jersey sports betting and saw that the Borgata opened the Bucs with 35-1 to win the NFC. DeRosa immediately booked a flight back to Atlantic City and placed a $ 8,000 bet on Tampa Bay to win the conference 35-1.
When DeRosa and White stopped betting, they had about $ 20,000 invested in Bucs with odds of around 65-1 to win the Super Bowl and 35-1 to win the NFC. Each of them took lesser positions on some teams, DeRosa at Los Angeles Chargers and White at Saints, but their biggest investment was in Bucs.
On March 20, Brady signed a two-year contract with the Buccaneers, whose chances at the Super Bowl improved dramatically in sports betting. When the season started, Tampa Bay had about 10-1 to win the Super Bowl and 5-1 to win the NFC, just as DeRosa had predicted.
In the middle of the season, things didn’t look good for Bucs. They lost three of four in November, including a 38-3 loss to Saints, dropping to 7-5.
“There was a little bit of frustration,” White said with a laugh over Tampa Bay’s mid-season blackout, “but it’s the NFL, man, you don’t exclude anyone until the end.
“There has always been a lot of value locked up in these big money tickets,” added White. “You could have made a lot of profit before the season even started with the numbers we had.”
Each of them protected their risk a little by beating the Washington Football Team with +9.5 in the playoff division round against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay won by eight. For the most part, however, they have stood their ground and plan to do the same for the Super Bowl. Buccaneers are 3-point underdogs for Kansas City Chiefs.
“I’m not a huge hedge fan,” said DeRosa.
Both almost 30 years old, DeRosa and White attended the Appalachian State together and have been betting professionally for over a decade. They have already earned six-figure profits from Bucs and are in a position to get the highest career scores in any sport if Tampa Bay wins the Super Bowl.
“We had about $ 11,000 or more to win $ 400,000 in the NFC Championship,” said DeRosa. “And then we have another $ 8,000 or $ 9,000 to win the 60-1 Super Bowl.
“So, go Bucs.”