In short: Congress is over this week, but the quiet work of gathering the Democrats’ opening offer in Covid continues this week, with the House on its way to approve its share of the $ 1.9 trillion proposal next week.
In the coming days, the House Budget Committee will draft the final draft based on the section by sections that the committees approved last week. This will ensure that Democrats are able to get the caucus to participate and approve the bill as early as next week.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has a margin of five votes on this project. This is not the spring of 2020, when the economy was in craters and the uncertainty of the virus was so paralyzing for the country that lawmakers met in a matter of weeks to approve the biggest stimulus project in history with unity. The scrutiny of this package – even by some Democrats – is more intense. This does not mean that some Republicans are not going to cross the aisle and vote in favor, giving Pelosi perhaps more space to move legislation in the plenary, but look at members’ comments in the coming days while they are at home on the playground to get a clue as to how much. this will represent for the mayor.
The Senate problem
In recent weeks, House Democrats have not worked in a vacuum by turning Biden’s proposal into legislative text. Democratic aides to the Finance Committee’s Senate have consulted the Chamber’s Manners and Resources panel. The Senate HELP Committee has worked closely with the Chamber’s Education and Work panel. Aides have been in close contact and Democratic senators have made it clear – both through private nudges and public comment – what they need in the House bill to make it viable on their side.
Still, House and Senate Democrats are not in complete unity now. The expectation is that changes in the House bill will take place in the Senate, but not in a formalized commission as last week in the House. Instead, the current plan for Democrats is to take their bill – with some potential changes that have been resolved in particular – directly to the Senate floor. This can happen in the week of March 2nd. However, Democrats in the Senate will have two weeks to approve their bill before unemployment insurance ends. And, if they pass a bill different from that of the House, the House will have to pass it again before March 14.
For those who are counting at home, it takes 27 days – less than a month – to discover this.
In that time, Senate Democrats will need to resolve a series of intra-party debates about the scope of this project, whether they are all willing to spend $ 1.9 trillion, whether they are willing to raise the minimum wage to $ 15 an hour, whether they are satisfied with the House’s protections on stimulus checks that give individuals who earn $ 75,000 and couples who earn $ 100,000 a total of $ 1,400, while eliminating the amount of the check more quickly for Americans with higher incomes.
For the most part, Democrats have been trying to talk about these issues in particular and the majority will likely vote for anything that comes to the room, given the expectation that giving Americans additional financial benefits will be popular. A Democratic senator told CNN last week, “Look, I’m going to vote in favor anyway.” But the next three weeks could test Democratic unity in ways we haven’t seen for a long time.
The minimum wage struggle
When Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent from Vermont, was about to become the top Democrat on the Senate Budget Committee, no one in the leadership expected Democrats to control a 50-50 Senate, where what Democrats want and what they should do for lawmakers are potentially in conflict.
“Kyrsten is working to ensure that an upcoming relief bill is focused on meeting Arizona’s immediate needs and believes that any proposals not related to those immediate needs – such as raising the minimum wage – should be excluded from the package,” his spokesman said in a statement to CNN last week.
Without Sinema, the Senate cannot approve Covid’s relief bill, even using the budget process that allows them to approve it with only 51 votes. Schumer has no room for error. And Sinema’s threat could endanger the entire account. Not to mention that she is not the only one who expressed particular concern about raising the minimum wage in this proposal. Senator Joe Manchin, a moderate Democrat from West Virginia, is also opposed to including that. Whether that would jeopardize your vote is not so clear.
Although Schumer has said repeatedly that he is working closely with Sanders to try to push him, other members of the Democratic leadership are more sober about the dynamics.
Asked what it would take to include the minimum wage, Whip of the majority Dick Durbin, an Illinois Democrat, told reporters last week: “I don’t know what will be needed, but I have heard serious questions asked by some Democratic members who are going to have to be resolved. “
In other words, now the question of raising the minimum wage could seriously jeopardize this Covid relief proposal. Including, you lose at least one moderate senator. Leave that behind, you risk losing progressive.
A potential way out of this minimum wage struggle
It is very possible that the issue of raising the minimum wage will not be approved by the Senate parliamentarian. This could save Democrats the pain of having to make that call on their own.
These negotiations are already underway now. But it is possible that the Senate congressman is the one who really turns the matter off, saving Democrats from having to make the call and risk losing votes.