See how Tilray, Sundial and other pots pile up

Although marijuana stocks have often been traded together when driven by sentiment, many of these stocks have had varying degrees of success. Some investors look for exchange-traded funds to bet on a broader basket of pot shares. THE

ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF

(MJ), which has exposure to the marijuana business, fell 24% on Thursday, returning close to earlier week levels. But that ETF does not include US multi-state traders, or MSOs, which must be listed over the counter in the US because they sell a product where it is federally illegal. THE

Pure Cannabis ETF Advisorshares

(YOLO) includes US MSOs.

Here are some of the biggest individual stocks and what analysts are predicting. It is not an exhaustive list, as there are more than a hundred public actions with some links to the cannabis business.

Tilray (TLRY) and Aphria (APHA)

Tilray

and Aphria announced a merger in December. Aphria CEO Irwin Simon predicts that the deal will close in the first half of this year. An investor would receive about 0.84 combined Tilray shares for each Aphria share he owned. Aphria has a recent market capitalization of $ 8.3 billion, compared to Tilray by $ 10.1 billion.

Tilray entered the year with a high stake sold in about 48% of the shares available for trading, according to data from S3 Partners. This is down to a recent 23%. Aphria’s sold stake is about 7.4% of the shares available for trading, up from 16% at the beginning of the year. When investors short sell a stock, they sell a borrowed stock in the hope of being able to return it by buying the stock at a lower price. When a mass of short sellers rush to cover and avoid further losses, it can increase inventories.

For Aphria, analysts expect the company to end fiscal year 2021 in May with annual sales of $ 534.8 million. They expect sales to grow to $ 710.3 million in fiscal year 2022. On the other hand, Tilray ended its last fiscal year in December. Analysts expect the company to report sales of $ 208 million for the year, growing to $ 277.8 million for the current year. Of course, the merger will hinder any far-reaching estimates.

The average rating for Tilray analysts is Hold, according to FactSet, although the average target price is only $ 12.20. Aphria’s average rating is overweight, but the average target price is $ 12.60.

Producers of sundials (SNDL)

Sundial, which previously traded above $ 11, has fallen to the status of penny shares. In February last year, the main management team resigned. The company had problems that included half a ton of cannabis rejected by a customer due to poor quality, MarketWatch reported. Earlier this month, Sundial announced a capital increase that caused shares to fall.

Shares rebounded this month amid retail traders’ interest, rising 403% year-to-date. Its market value is $ 4.3 billion after Thursday’s downturn. Analysts expect sales to reach $ 53.1 million for the year 2020. Consensus estimates point to $ 62.6 million in 2021.

Aurora Cannabis (ACB)

Aurora Cannabis

it was previously one of the most owned shares in Robinhood. But the company has struggled for several quarters to achieve positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. A new chief executive and some major cost cuts helped, but did not win over analysts. None of the 17 analysts listed by FactSet have a buy rating, while four analysts recently rated it a sale. The average target price of $ 9.07 is below recent levels.

The company has a market capitalization of $ 3.7 billion. Analysts do not expect a profitable fiscal year in the years to come. The consensus estimate predicts a net loss of $ 1.16 per share for the fiscal year ending in June, according to FactSet. In terms of sales, analysts expect the company to reach $ 227.4 million in fiscal year 2021, which ends in June. They forecast sales to increase to $ 303.3 million in fiscal 2022.

Canopy growth (CGC)

Canopy growth

has a recent market capitalization of $ 19.7 billion. Brewer

Constellation Marks

(STZ) has Canopy share control. The producer also has an agreement with Acreage Holdings that would allow him to enter the U.S. cannabis market, but the merger itself is triggered by regulatory changes that would allow this.

The company has a market value of around $ 19.7 billion. Analysts expect sales of $ 441.4 million for fiscal year 2021, which ends in March. They forecast a growth of $ 639.9 million in fiscal year 2022.

Cronos Group (CRON)

Cronos Group

was one of the few profitable Canadian cannabis companies in 2019, and investors expect it to continue in 2020, with estimates pointing to earnings of 3 cents per share. But consensus estimates expect a net loss of 24 cents per share in fiscal year 2021.

The company received $ 1.8 billion from the tobacco giant

Altria Group

(MO) in 2018 by a 45% stake. Unlike competitors, the company was conservative with its war chest. It still had $ 1.3 billion in cash and short-term investments at the end of September. On the other hand, analysts predict that sales will reach just $ 43.8 million in 2020 and expect them to grow to $ 86.9 million in 2021.

US multi-state operators

While the recent rush for marijuana stocks has been driven by a shift in political winds in the United States that sell marijuana there, they have actually lagged behind their Canadian counterparts in recent months. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Pablo Zuanic said Barron’s he believes that “major US MSOs are attractively valued in a long-term perspective, although they receive part of the Canadian downdraft.”

Big names in the USA include

Curaleaf Holdings

(CURLF),

Green Thumb Industries

(GTBIF),

Cresco Labs

(CRLBF), and

Trulieve Cannabis

(TCNNF). Zuanic has an overweight rating on these stocks, while he has neutral ratings on most Canadian big names. He projects sales in the U.S. cannabis market at $ 22.1 billion in 2021, $ 28 billion in 2022 and $ 49 billion in 2025.

Write to Connor Smith at [email protected]