American officials are also concerned about the long-term goals of the Kremlin’s ally in the war-torn state. An intelligence officer notes that the trench is a sign that Wagner, who, according to the officer, has his largest global presence in Libya, is “settling in the long term”.
The trench, which extends for tens of kilometers south of the coastal areas populated around Sirte towards the Wagner-controlled fortress of al-Jufra, can be seen in satellite images and is supported by a series of elaborate fortifications.
CNN contacted the Russian government for comment and received no response.
The trench and fortifications appear designed to prevent or prevent a land attack on LNA-controlled areas in the east, passing through the populated coastal areas of Libya that have seen the greatest number of clashes since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi’s regime in 2011.
GNA published images of excavators and trucks creating the ditch and shoulder next to it and said the work appeared to be underway later this month.
The trench, said the US intelligence officer, is another reason “we see no intention or movement on the part of Turkish or Russian forces to respect the UN-mediated agreement. This has the potential to undermine an already fragile peace process and cease to fire. It will be a very difficult year ahead. “
Open source monitoring claims to have mapped a series of more than 30 defensive positions excavated in the desert and on the slopes that stretch for about 70 kilometers.
Satellite images of Maxar appear to show the trench that stretches along a main road and the fortifications dug, also by Wagner’s mercenaries and their contractors.
The images show an accumulation of defenses around the Jufra air base and also the southernmost Brak airfield, where apparent radar defenses have been installed and fortified.
Salaheddin Al-Namroush GNA Minister of Defense, told CNN: “I don’t think anyone digging a trench today and making these reinforcements is going to leave anytime soon.”
Claudia Gazzini of the International Crisis Group told CNN that the trench was “really worrying” and that talking about it “has been circulating among diplomats in recent weeks. It is ongoing and suggests that Moscow wants to cement its presence in Libya.”
Analysts said the Kremlin is eager to increase its military presence and influence in the Mediterranean, along southern NATO, with the added benefit of involvement and profit from Libya’s oil industry.
Gazzini added that there were repeated reports that both sides continued to maintain and build a presence of foreign mercenaries, with the GNA also accused of increasing its supply of military equipment, under a public agreement with Turkey to support its armed forces.
The US intelligence officer said the number of mercenaries on both the GNA and the LNA side was relatively consistent: about 10,000 were currently in Libya, according to a September AFRICOM report on the matter.
The deployment of some 2,000 foreign Wagner mercenaries in Libya – allegedly Russians or former citizens of the Soviet Union – is the largest private military company in the world, the American official said.
An LNA spokesman, General Khaled al-Mahjoub, confirmed the existence of the trenches to CNN, but described them as “temporary” sand barriers and trenches in “an open area … for defense and combat”. He denied the presence of 2,000 Wagner mercenaries and said there were consultants “announced a long time ago.”
But a confidential UN report in June, obtained by CNN, described Wagner’s fighters as “an effective force multiplier”.
Last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin said there were no Russians in Libya, but if there are, they are not representing Russia. Russia has always denied that it uses mercenaries to fight for it.
Despite the arms embargo, UN inspectors recorded dozens of Russian flights to Libya throughout 2020.
The US Command in Africa publicly called on Russia to expand, saying it was similar to actions in Syria.
In June, the head of the defense committee in the upper house of the Russian parliament, Viktor Bondarev, said the US claim was “stupid” and suggested that they were old Soviet planes from elsewhere in Africa.
A Western diplomat with knowledge of arms movements to Libya said that Russian flights to the country fell from their peak of 93 in August to just over a dozen a month in late 2020. “They are just supporting themselves on the ground” , he said, adding that Turkey was flying in similar numbers.
Turkey’s military is open about its desire for a permanent presence, posting images of its military giving GNA “Base Defense Training” last week.
“It is a comprehensive effort,” said the US official. “They are building facilities, bringing in personnel and equipment. They have HAWK, 3D air defense missile batteries [KALAKAN] radar.”
Satellite images of the port of al-Khoms show minor modifications that suggest it may be being prepared for a long-term Turkish naval presence, which GNA’s al-Namroush denied.
A senior Turkish security official told CNN that “they continue to offer military training, cooperation and advice … according to the needs and demands of the GNA”.
The thousands of Syrian mercenaries that Turkey flew to and supported in Libya were also used elsewhere, the US intelligence official said. During Turkey’s support for the Azerbaijan government during its recent conflict with Armenia, planes transported hundreds of Syrian mercenaries to Azerbaijan, to help Turkey’s ally in its war with Armenia, the American official said.
“It seemed that there was some movement by some of the Syrian mercenary forces towards the conflict in [Nagorno Karabakh]. Smaller numbers, in the lower hundreds, “added the official.
Wagner’s forces, supported by Russia, aim to provide Moscow with influence, but not responsibilities, analysts said. Jalel Harchaoui, a senior member of the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, said Wagner’s mercenary forces were “by definition disposable” – and a “force that doesn’t exist, according to the official Russian state version. It doesn’t mean that it doesn’t it is formidable, fearful and quite effective “, but it provides the greatest flexibility for the Kremlin.
Gazzini added: “Russian policy in Libya is opaque – what Russia wants to do. From the evidence, it seems that they want to consolidate their influence or find a way out.”
Even so, the US official added that the Russian accumulation now added significant personnel and advanced equipment, but that it raised ethical concerns. “The fourth generation fighters and Pantsir missile systems are being operated by less capable and poorly trained Wagner mercenaries,” said the official.
“There are complex challenges in Libya, including Al Qaeda and ISIS, and the mercenaries with their low level of training, experience and a lack of respect for human rights and international law make these weapons systems the most worrying.”
Although Wagner’s presence and trench appear to convey an advantage to LNA chief General Haftar, the Russian presence appears to be more focused on the Moscow agenda than Haftar’s support, analysts said.
The Western diplomat said that Haftar needed an ongoing conflict in Libya to maintain relevance. “It becomes irrelevant overnight if the conflict ends,” said the diplomat. “And if it doesn’t end on his terms, he becomes vulnerable to allegations of war crimes, etc.”