In interviews with more than a dozen Republican senators, the consensus was clear: most Republicans are likely to acquit Trump, and only a few risk falling to condemn the former president – unless more evidence or political dynamics emerge within. of your party changing dramatically. However, Republicans are also signaling that the more time has passed since the turmoil, some of the day’s emotions have cooled and they are ready to move on.
“The chances of getting a conviction are virtually nil,” said Sen. Roger Wicker, a Republican from Mississippi.
“I don’t know what the vote will be, but I think the two-thirds chance is nil,” said Sen. John Cornyn, a Texas Republican and a member of his party’s leadership who considered the Democratic impulse to start the trial “vindictive.”
“Listening to the dynamics – and everything up to this point – it will be difficult to get even a handful,” said Sen. Mike Braun, an Indiana Republican, referring to possible Republican Party defectors. “I think many are getting confused by the fact that we are doing this – and everyone has an opinion that it is a kind of constitutional concern.”
The Republican Party’s arguments are now in focus, claiming that the process is unconstitutional for trying a former president and arguing that the trial is moving in a very short time to give Trump due process, says Democrats vehemently reject it. But those arguments, Republicans believe, will allow them a way to escape Trump’s condemnation without endorsing his conduct in the race for the deadly crowd that sacked the Capitol on January 6. And Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell is likely to land in the same place as much of his conference, Republican senators believe, although the Republican leader said he would hear the arguments first before deciding how to vote.
“Many see this as a game of shirts and furs,” said a Republican senator, referring to how many of his colleagues see the process as a strictly partisan affair.
For Democrats, the calculation is also complicated. If they seek a longer trial – even during the 21 days of Trump’s first impeachment trial in 2020 – with witnesses, they could satisfy some Republicans who are arguing that the trial should give Trump an adequate opportunity to make his case. However, doing so could erode the first full month of Biden’s presidency, while a shorter trial would alienate some Republicans.
“I am not in favor of any witch hunts,” said Cornyn, who noted that he would be less likely to be convicted if it were a short trial without witnesses. “This must be a fair and respectable process because everything we do is not just about President Trump. It is about setting a new precedent and, as you know, as soon as we do things around here and there is a precedent for that. , that will be the rule for the next time it happens. “
And even some who were seen as possible final votes are critical of Democrats for trying to start the trial immediately, instead of following McConnell’s proposed schedule of postponing proceedings until the end of February.
“It is very problematic, I would say, for people who are bringing it up now from a time perspective,” said Senate minority deputy John Thune, the second Republican, who criticized Trump’s conduct and is also a candidate for re-election in 2022. “I think it will be very important to have due process or not.”
Murkowski added: “I think what McConnell established was eminently reasonable, in terms of ensuring that we have the process. We have to have a process and the process has to be fair.”
Collins, the Maine Republican who strongly criticized Trump’s conduct, said he was consulting “constitutional scholars” on the proceedings. Asked about Republican senators’ assessment that Trump will almost certainly not be condemned, she said: “This is not an irrational conclusion, but I just don’t know.”
And in the past two days, McConnell has publicly defended the case to give the Trump team more time to prepare. With much of the GOP conference now lining up against the sentencing, Republicans speculate that the GOP leader is likely to vote for absolution as well.
One of the main obstacles that Democratic House managers will have with Republicans is to convince them that a trial is constitutional, as a group of Senate Republicans has argued in recent days that the trial of a former president who is now a private citizen it is unconstitutional. Such an argument could give Republicans a reason to vote for Trump’s absolution without addressing his conduct around the Capitol insurrection earlier this month.
“I think it’s obvious that post-presidential impeachment has never occurred in the country’s history for a reason, which is unconstitutional, which sets a bad precedent for the presidency and continues to divide the nation,” Graham said on Friday.
“It makes no sense that a president – or any authority – can commit a heinous crime against our country and then be allowed to step down to avoid accountability and a vote to remove them from a future position,” Schumer said on Friday. .
Trump’s Republican defenders back down.
But when asked how they should hold Trump accountable, Hawley said: “Breaking the constitution and using an unconstitutional process is not the way to do it.”
Ali Zaslav, Ali Main and Olanma Mang of CNN contributed to this report.