“The driest conditions in the southwestern United States associated with La Niña and the failed summer monsoon 2020 have contributed to the development and intensification of what represents the most significant spring drought in the United States since 2013,” said NOAA.
The dry climate is expected to last until spring, with below average rainfall forecast in much of the west. This is likely to make the drought situation even worse.
One of the factors that contributed to the drought in the west was the lack of snow. The largest area of expansion of the snow drought was in Sierra Nevada, where no major storm has occurred since the strong atmospheric river in late January. This left almost all Sierra Nevada weather stations below the 30th percentile of the equivalent of snow water, and some locations in the Southern Sierra are still below the 10th percentile.
But what is bad for some may be good for others in terms of accumulated snow. It is the final dichotomy.
This is because, unlike some previous years, the lack of melting means that floods will be less severe in the plains and in the midwest, but it also means a lack of water needed by the western states that depend on it to maintain drought conditions. under control.
Drought conditions will worsen as we enter the peak of the fire season
The drought continues to affect about 44% of the contiguous region of the USA, mainly in the western states, and the spring forecast is that the drought will persist.
Currently, the most severe drought conditions are across the western United States, with 20% of the region in exceptional drought. This is the worst category on the scale of the National Drought Mitigation Center. Almost 90% of the general region is at least abnormally dry, and these drought conditions can get worse.
Entering the summer with dry conditions is also worrying, as it is when the forest fire season begins to increase.
“With the forecast of warmer temperatures in the spring and the deepening of the drought, the fire season could start earlier in some places and be more severe this year,” said Chad Myers, a CNN meteorologist.
The Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) – a division of NOAA – divides crops and livestock affected by drought. This week, more than 150 million acres of crops are under drought conditions in the United States. The impact of drought on agriculture may be related to higher prices due to crop losses.
In other parts of the United States, a drought can begin: “Higher than average temperatures this spring and low soil moisture will allow drought conditions to develop and expand in the south and center of the Great Plains, as well as in the Great Plains. south Florida, “according to NOAA.
Meanwhile, in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions, a wetter than normal spring is expected. Some areas of this part of the country are experiencing drought conditions and, in some cases, a moderate drought, but in the Northeast it will give way to a humid source.
NOAA predicts that any drought in the Northeast will end thanks to the weather patterns expected this spring.
There is a bright side, but not for everyone
However, drought is not always rain. Snowpack, again, is a factor.
“In the west, snow accumulated in winter can be more effective in alleviating drought than summer storms. The snow slowly melts and doesn’t just run off the parched soil, ”says Myers.
As of this week, nearly 70% of the western US contiguous weather stations are below the median for the snow water equivalent.
The lack of strong storms in the Sierra Nevada left states like California, Nevada and Arizona at a great disadvantage when entering the dry season – the summer.
Although the snow drought may be low at the headwaters of the Colorado River, it has improved along the Colorado and Wyoming mountain ranges since the beginning of the month.
Although that particular basin has seen a sufficient increase to reach levels close to the average, “water supply forecasts still remain below average,” says the West Gulf River Forecast Center.
“There is a reduced risk of flooding for most of the Greater Mississippi Basin, the Northern Red River and the Souris Basins, mainly due to unusually dry conditions, continuous drought and a lack of accumulated snow and associated water equivalent.”
Even compared to last year, the threat of flooding for much of the Midwest and Plains regions is less, which is good news for people in these areas of the country. The past two years have brought greater flood threats to much of the Mississippi and Missouri River basins, so the driest conditions expected this year are really considered positive compared to what is happening with the western states of the USA.
Spring may look more like summer
Temperatures this spring during April, May and June are expected to be warmer than normal for the vast majority of the country.
NOAA predicts that all contiguous USA will experience temperatures above the general average, with the exception of the northwest. Western Washington is expected to experience sub-average temperatures, while the rest of the region has an equal chance of above, below, or near normal conditions.
The greatest chance of above-average temperatures is in the interior of the southwest, which also faces exceptional drought conditions.