Ontario declared an emergency after the latest modeling put Canada’s most populous province on track to receive more than 20,000 new cases of Covid-19 a day in mid-February – a nearly ten-fold increase from the current count.
Ontario, which is battling a coronavirus outbreak that flooded its hospitals and unleashed a blockade across the province, may also see about 1,500 more deaths in its long-term homes by mid-February in a worst-case scenario, from according to expert models advising the government.
New restrictions that take effect on January 14 require residents to stay at home, except for essential activities, while outdoor meetings will be limited to five people and non-essential construction works will be restricted.
“I know that the order to stay at home is a drastic measure, which we don’t take lightly. Everyone must stay home to live, ”Ontario premier Doug Ford told a news conference. “Inspection and inspections will increase.”
Canada began targeted vaccination in December, with current efforts aimed at health professionals and long-term residents.
The federal government ordered an additional 20 million doses of the coronavirus vaccine from Pfizer Inc and BioNTech, Justin Trudeau told reporters on Tuesday. That would take the total number of doses to be administered this year in Canada to 80 million.
Ontario, the country’s economic engine, has been blocked since December 26, with non-essential businesses closed and schools closed for face-to-face learning.
Still, the daily number of Covid-19 cases has increased by more than 3,500 on average over the past seven days, government data showed. On Tuesday, Ontario reported 2,903 new cases.
In the worst case scenario, with 7% case growth, there would be 40,000 new cases a day in mid-February, while the best scenario, with 1% growth, would result in 5,000 new cases every day, Ontario data showed. Case growth has recently been higher than 7% on the worst days, the data showed.
In five of Ontario’s most affected areas – including the Toronto area, near Hamilton and Windsor-Essex, across the border from Detroit – schools will remain closed until at least February 10. The nursery for children too young for school will remain open, along with an emergency nursery for some schoolchildren.
“We will have to confront choices that no doctor wants to make and no family wants to hear,” said Dr. Steini Brown, Ontario’s head of case modeling, at a news conference on Tuesday. “People will die from the virus itself and the overburdened health system that is unable to respond to their needs.
Brown warned that Britain’s new Covid-19 variant was already in Ontario and could shorten case doubling time – or how long it takes for case counts to double, currently from 30 to 40 days – to 10 days.
Last week, Quebec, Canada’s most affected province, was the first in the country to introduce a curfew to limit the spread.