New Jersey’s chief health officer warned on Wednesday that the state is preparing for an “increase” in hospitalizations due to the latest increase in coronavirus cases that could occur next week and could trigger a new round of restrictions, especially with elective surgeries.
Although hospitalizations remained between 3,500 and 3,900 for weeks, well below the peak of more than 8,000 in the spring, Department of Health commissioner Judy Persichilli said hospital staff are concerned about the weeks ahead due to staff availability .
“We are preparing for the predictive increase that could begin next week in mid-February,” said Persichilli on Wednesday during Governor COVID-19’s regular meeting.
“What we will not have is the appropriate level of personnel that people are familiar with, conventional personnel,” she said. “Therefore, we will be working with our hospitals if they need to progress to what we call a contingency team and, hopefully, never an emergency team.”
Governor Phil Murphy warned that hospitalizations of more than 5,000 patients would likely trigger some new restrictions – particularly in elective surgeries, which include procedures such as tumor removal.
In the spring outbreak, New Jersey benefited from the arrival of health professionals from other parts of the country to help treat patients. Now that the virus is spreading across the country, health officials do not expect to receive the same support – which could mean a shortage of staff to meet high patient demand.
There were 3,638 people being treated at 71 state hospitals on Wednesday night, 88 patients less than the day before, according to state data.
New Jersey, however, reported a record 6,922 new positive tests confirmed on Wednesday and an additional 95 deaths. The seven-day average for new confirmed cases increased on Wednesday to 5,679, an increase of 22% over the previous week and 18% over the previous month. That’s the biggest seven-day average in the outbreak so far, although the lack of tests in the spring is likely to underestimate the extent of infections in the first wave.
Increases in hospitalization tend to occur one to two weeks after the increase in new cases, as symptoms worsen and people seek advanced medical care, officials said.
Hospitalizations from 1/13/21
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“(We) are looking at this number and that number like a hawk,” said Murphy on Wednesday.
Moderate models for the outbreak predict a peak of 4,000 to 4,500 hospitalizations, while tall models show more than 6,000, Persichilli said.
The tall model “would be difficult” to manage, Persichilli said.
“At this point, we will have to pull some levers that we are not currently pulling,” added Murphy.
The state’s 9 million residents have already lost 20,161 residents in the COVID-19 outbreak – 18,070 confirmed deaths and 2,091 considered likely. Probable deaths were revised upward on Wednesday from 2,059. New Jersey has already announced 969 confirmed deaths this month, after 1,890 in December.
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Matt Arco can be contacted at [email protected].