The first year of expanded NFL playoffs left us with seven postseason posts still at stake as Week 17 approaches. That’s more than in any year since at least 1990, the most recent season when the field expanded and configured a wild last week of the regular season.
Here is the complete post-season panorama and the conquest scenarios that lie ahead, along with ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) analysis, after the Packers victory on Sunday night.
Note: X denotes a team that won a playoff spot, Y shows a team that won its division, and Z indicates a team that guaranteed goodbye in the first round.
Jump to: AFC | NFC
AFC
FPI playoff opportunities: Conquered
FPI chances of winning the division: Conquered
No matter how it happens, as long as it does, right? The Chiefs took the AFC’s biggest lead on the field and at home throughout the playoffs on Sunday, although they have been on the ropes for much of the game. Ultimately, they won when the Falcons Pro Bowl kicker Younghoe Koo missed what would be a 39-yard field goal to tie the game with 9 seconds remaining.
The Chiefs will receive the AFC’s only farewell in the first round, and their next street game will be in the Super Bowl or the 2021 season.
Remaining schedule: vs. Chargers
FPI playoff opportunities: Conquered
FPI chances of winning the division: Conquered
The Steelers came out of their great fear at the break of Sunday’s game against the Colts, recovering from a three touchdown handicap to win and win AFC North. They temporarily moved up to second place and will remain there entering Week 17 if the Bills lose Monday night to the Patriots.
Remaining schedule: at Browns
FPI playoff opportunities: Conquered
FPI chances of winning the division: Conquered
Bills’ victory in week 15 in Denver resolved, making them the AFC East champions for the first time since Jim Kelly was the starting defender. They found on Sunday, however, that they will not be able to overtake the Chiefs for the overall position.
In terms of finishing at No. 2, they have a tiebreaker with the Steelers. And, in general, the bills are strange. They have won seven of the last eight games, losing only when the Cardinals connected on an Ave Maria in week 10. But Pittsburgh holds the advantage for the moment, after defeating the Colts on Sunday.
Remaining schedule: in the Patriots, vs. Dolphins
FPI playoff opportunities: 91%
FPI chances of winning the division: 66%
The Titans failed to win the AFC South title on Sunday night by losing to the Packers, but they will have ample opportunity to do so in Week 17, thanks to the Colts’ defeat in Pittsburgh. The Titans will conquer if they beat the Texans or lose the Ravens, Colts or Dolphins.
Remaining schedule: in texans
FPI playoff opportunities: 83%
FPI chances of winning the division: Deleted
The Dolphins achieved one of the most dramatic and significant victories of the season on Saturday night, maintaining their position among the AFC’s top seven by defeating the Raiders. The return of Ryan Fitzpatrick can not only push the Dolphins into the playoffs, but can also hold the Browns or another qualified team.
The Dolphins cannot win in Week 16, but a victory in Week 17 over the Bills would do that, as well as a defeat for the Ravens, Browns or Colts.
Remaining schedule: in accounts
FPI playoff opportunities: 94%
FPI chances of winning the division: Deleted
Sunday’s victory over the Giants, combined with the Browns’ loss to the Jets, pushed the Ravens back into the playoff situation. They have won four consecutive games and are not a team that anyone at AFC would like to play. To guarantee a spot in the postseason, all they need to do is win in Cincinnati in week 17. The Ravens would also enter the game if the Browns or Colts lose.
Remaining schedule: in Bengals
FPI playoff opportunities: 55%
FPI chances of winning the division: Deleted
The Browns’ defeat on Sunday to the Jets was just as, well, the Browns. Playing with a squad exhausted by the COVID-19 protocols, the Browns lost to a team from a win, and they are holding on to their playoff chances by a thread.
They have a head-to-head tie against the Colts and can guarantee a playoff spot in Week 17 by defeating the Steelers at home. They can also conquer if the Colts lose or through this combination: the Titans losing their final game and the Ravens, Colts and Dolphins winning in Week 17.
Remaining schedule: vs. Steelers
Still on the hunt for AFC
Indianapolis Colts (10-5): Sunday’s collapse in Pittsburgh leaves the Colts out – but not eliminated – of the playoffs, thanks to the tiebreakers for Titans, Browns and Dolphins. Colts will need help on Week 17 to secure a spot. First, they need a victory over the Jaguars. So they need a defeat for the Titans, Ravens, Browns or Dolphins. A Titans victory and defeat would also give the Colts the AFC South title. It sounds like a lot, but the FPI is giving the Colts a 78% chance of reaching the playoffs.
NFC
FPI playoff opportunities: Conquered
FPI chances of winning the division: Conquered
The Packers failed to take the top spot in the NFC despite Sunday night’s victory over the Titans, because both the Saints and the Seahawks won in Week 16. They can rectify that by defeating the Bears in Week 17. FPI is giving Green Bay an 82% chance of catching seed # 1.
If they lose to the Bears, the Packers can still guarantee the advantage of playing at home if the Seahawks lose to the 49ers. The Seahawks would have the tie between the teams if they both ended in 12-4.
Remaining schedule: in Bears
FPI playoff opportunities: Conquered
FPI chances of winning the division: Conquered
The Saints won their fourth consecutive NFC South championship with Friday’s wild victory over the Vikings. Now the question is whether they will be able to overtake the Packers for first place at the conference. The simplest way to do that will be to defeat the Panthers and then have the Packers lose to the Bears in Week 17. FPI is giving about a 13% chance of happening.
Remaining schedule: at Panthers
FPI playoff opportunities: Conquered
FPI chances of winning the division: Conquered
The Seahawks conquered NFC West with Sunday’s victory over the Rams. And they haven’t been eliminated from the race for the top of the NFC yet, but they would need to beat the 49ers in Week 17 and also have the Packers and Saints losing in Week 17. It’s not likely, but it’s also not out of the question. FPI puts the chances of this happening at 5%.
Remaining schedule: in 49ers
FPI playoff opportunities: 56%
FPI chances of winning the division: 56%
After 16 weeks of madness, the NFC East title will drop to Week 17. Washington will beat him if he wins the Eagles. Otherwise, the winner of the week 17 showdown between the Giants and the Cowboys will win the division.
And yes, that means that a team under .500 will officially win the division, in one way or another. Disgusting. It happened just two other times in the Super Bowl era: the 2014 Panthers (7-8-1) and the 2010 Seahawks (7-9). Whoever wins the NFC East will be the first team in NFL history (out of 342 candidates) to start a season 2-7 or worse and move on to the playoffs, according to a survey by the Elias Sports Bureau.
Remaining schedule: on eagles
FPI playoff opportunities: Conquered
FPI chances of winning the division: Deleted
The Bucs secured a playoff spot on Saturday by crushing the Lions, but the Saints’ victory on Friday eliminated them from the NFC title fight. Regardless, Buccaneers should be able to win the 5-seed in the NFC playoffs next weekend with a win over Atlanta.
Remaining schedule: vs. Falcons
FPI playoff opportunities: 89%
FPI chances of winning the division: Deleted
The Rams failed to secure a playoff spot this weekend by losing to the Seahawks. They now need a victory in Week 17 or a defeat by the Bears for that. If Rams loses and Bears wins, LA will lose the postseason after entering Week 16 with a 96.2% chance of reaching the playoffs, by FPI.
Remaining schedule: vs. Cardinals
FPI playoff opportunities: 78%
FPI chances of winning the division: Deleted
Sunday’s victory in Jacksonville, after the Cardinals lost Saturday to the 49ers, catapulted Bears to the brink of an unlikely playoff spot. They will need to beat the Packers in Week 17 or the Cardinals will lose to Rams to secure their post-season spot.
Remaining schedule: vs. Packers
Still on the hunt for NFC
Arizona Cardinals (8-7): Saturday’s loss to the 49ers left the Cardinals in need of help reaching the playoffs. They will need a victory in week 17 and a defeat by Bears for that (33% chance, by FPI).
Dallas Cowboys (6-9): Cowboys can beat NFC East if they beat the Giants in Week 17 and Washington lose to the Eagles. Of the teams still alive, Dallas has the lowest chances of FPI playoffs, with 16%.
New York Giants (5-10): Likewise, the Giants can beat NFC East if they beat the Cowboys in Week 17 and Washington lose to the Eagles. FPI is giving New York a 28% chance of making that happen.