LONDON & COLOGNE, Germany – The growth of the Chinese Armed Forces is increasingly focused on transporting forces to distant places, with new logistics capabilities coming online quickly, according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.
The assessment is included in the think tank’s Military Balance 2021 report, an annual compendium of defense events around the world, released on February 25. The focus on China’s growing air and sea logistical capabilities comes after experts have long reported Beijing’s problem. efforts to field modernized armaments aimed at transforming the country into a superpower.
For example, “China’s fleet support vessels are now 12, compared to seven in 2015, while the increase in the number of heavy Y-20 transports means that the PLA [People’s Liberation Army] The Air Force has effectively doubled its heavy air transport fleet in the past four years, ”wrote IISS researchers in their report.
China maintains a military outpost in Djibouti that is seen by Western analysts as a key component of the country’s power projection ambitions in the Indian Ocean.
The expanded support infrastructure on land, combined with the logistics required to support large leaps, means that more long-range Chinese deployments are underway, IISS researcher Nick Childs said during an online news conference on Thursday.
The next significant step, he added, would be China’s ability to ship aircraft carriers to the Indian Ocean.
“Beijing seems to intend to achieve primacy in its coastal areas and, although China’s maritime paramilitary forces have taken the lead – and are using Chinese-occupied facilities on the Spratly Islands as bases for advanced operations in the South China Sea – Liberation of the People The Army Navy (PLAN) maintained a presence ‘beyond the horizon’ ”, stated the IISS report.
Meanwhile, China continued its upward trajectory of defense spending in 2020, albeit at a slightly slower pace: 5.2% last year, compared to 5.9% in 2019, according to the think tank. Still, Beijing’s $ 12 billion nominal increase in 2020 was more than the increases in all other Asian countries combined (except Russia).
While Asia accounted for almost 18% of total global defense spending a decade ago, by 2020 that figure had risen to 25%, IISS figures show.
Global defense spending totaled $ 1.83 trillion last year, up 3.9 percent from 2019, reaching a new high despite the coronavirus pandemic, according to IISS analysts.
European countries maintained their increase in military spending in 2020, increasing by 2% over the previous year. Those who spent the most on the continent were the United Kingdom with $ 61.5 billion, France with $ 55 billion, Germany with $ 51.3 billion and Italy with $ 29.3 billion.
“If these spending plans continue on their current trajectory, in 2021 Europe could be the region with the fastest growth in spending on global defense,” wrote IISS analysts.
Strong UK national budget figures last year were reinforced at the industry level on February 25, when BAE Systems – Europe’s largest defense and security company – reported solid performance for 2020 with order entry, revenue and profits compared to the previous year, despite the challenges of COVID-19.
But the trend is that my means are not guaranteed, said Fenella McGerty, a senior defense economics researcher at IISS. She said the full economic effect of the coronavirus pandemic has not yet materialized, as governments are still drawing up their budgets for the coming years.
For now, money spent on defense in Europe was already largely allocated to programs before the pandemic, McGerty said, and there appears to be a consensus among governments to avoid large-scale cuts, as in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.
“The pandemic will affect global defense spending, although it will probably take until 2022-2023 for the full financial effect of government responses to start translating into cuts in the defense budget,” said John Chapman, director general of the think tank.
McGerty added: “The drive for austerity, to cut spending, cannot be ignored.”