JACARTA, Indonesia (AP) – Before each rainy season, Lu Lu Aung and other farmers who lived in a camp for internally displaced people in the northern tip of Myanmar Kachin state would return to the village from which they fled and plant crops that would help them maintain them fed for the future year.
But this year, in the wake of the February military coup, with the rains not far away, farmers rarely leave their makeshift homes and dare not leave their camp. They say it is just too dangerous to run the risk of finding soldiers from the Myanmar army or its aligned militias.
“We can’t go anywhere and we can’t do anything since the coup,” said Lu Lu Aung. “Every night, we hear the sounds of jet fighters flying so close to our camp.”
The military’s lethal crackdown on protesters in large central cities, such as Yangon and Mandalay, has received much of the attention since the coup that overthrew the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. But far away, on the borders of Myanmar, Lu Lu Aung and millions other people who come from ethnic minority groups in Myanmar are facing increasing uncertainty and waning security as long-standing conflicts between military armies and minority guerrillas reappear.
This situation came to prominence last week, when the military launched deadly air strikes against Karen ethnic guerrillas in their homeland on the eastern border, displacing thousands of people and sending civilians to neighboring Thailand.
Several rebel armies have threatened to join forces if the killing of civilians does not stop, while a group made up of members of the deposed government has proposed the creation of a new army that includes rebel groups. The UN special envoy to Myanmar, meanwhile, warned that the country faces the possibility of civil war.
Ethnic minorities make up about 40% of Myanmar’s 52 million inhabitants, but the central government and military leadership have long been dominated by the country’s ethnic Burmese majority. Since independence from Britain in 1948, more than a dozen ethnic groups have sought greater autonomy, with some maintaining their own independent armies.
This put them at odds with Myanmar’s ultranationalist generals, who have long viewed any cession of territory – especially those in border areas that are often rich in natural resources – as equivalent to treachery and have been fighting mercilessly against rebel armies with only some occasional periods of ceasefire.
The violence has led to accusations of abuse against all parties, such as arbitrary civilian taxes and forced recruitment, and according to the United Nations it has displaced some 239,000 people since 2011. This does not include the more than 800,000 Rohingya minority who have fled to Bangladesh to escape a military campaign that the UN called ethnic cleansing.
Since February, anti-coup protests have taken place in all border states and security forces responded in the same way as elsewhere with tear gas, rubber bullets and live ammunition. But residents and observers say the post-coup situation on geographically isolated borders has worsened with increasing skirmishes between the military and armed ethnic organizations vying for power and territory.
Lu Lu Aung, who comes from the Kachin ethnic group, said he participated in protests, but stopped because it was now too dangerous. She said that Myanmar’s security forces and aligned militias recently occupied their former village where they planted and no one left the field because they feared being forced to work for the army.
“Our students are no longer able to continue their studies and for adults it is very difficult to find a job and earn money,” she said.
Humanitarian aid for civilians at the borders – already affected by the pandemic, as well as the inherent difficulty external groups face to operate in many areas – has also been difficult since the coup.
Communications were interrupted, banks were closed and security became increasingly uncertain, said the director of an organization based in Myanmar that supports displaced people who spoke on condition of anonymity for security reasons.
“There is no more aid and humanitarian support,” she said.
In eastern Karen state, where air strikes have displaced thousands, there are concerns that the arrival of the rainy season could worsen the humanitarian situation already hampered by reports that Thailand has sent back many of the escaped civilians. Thailand said that those who returned to Myanmar did so voluntarily.
Even so, there are parts of the country’s borders that were hardly affected by the coup.
In the state of Wa, a region bordering China and Thailand that has its own government, army and ceasefire agreements with the Myanmar military, videos shared online show normal life, including launching a campaign vaccination against coronavirus.
Near Bangladesh, in the coastal state of Rakhine, from where the Rohingya were expelled and where violent clashes with the Arakan Army group have been going on for years, the junta last month removed the group from its list of terrorist groups, raising hopes of a reduction of hostilities. The Arakan Army, unlike several other armed groups, did not criticize the coup.
The group, however, has since released a statement that declared its right to defend its territory and civilians against military attacks, leading some to fear a further escalation in the fighting.
Other armed groups have issued similar statements. Some, like the Karen National Union, provided protection to civilians who marched in anti-coup protests.
These actions contributed to calls for a “federal army” that brings together armed ethnic groups from across the country. But analysts say such a view would be difficult to achieve due to logistical challenges and political differences between groups.
“These groups are not in a position where they can provide the necessary support against the Myanmar military in urban centers with large populations, or really far from their own regions,” said Ronan Lee, a visiting scholar at Queen Mary University of London’s International State crime initiative.
Despite the uncertainty of what lies ahead, some minority activists say they have been encouraged since the coup by the greater focus on the role that ethnic groups can play in Myanmar’s future. They also say that there seems to be a greater understanding – at least among anti-coup protesters – of the struggle that minorities have been facing for so long.
“If there is any silver lining in all of this, this is it,” said an activist, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of his safety.