Nicolas Maduro, the president of Venezuela, and Cilia Flores, the first lady of Venezuela, arrive at the National Assembly in Caracas on January 12, 2021.
Photographer: Carlos Becerra / Bloomberg
Photographer: Carlos Becerra / Bloomberg
Long mocked as a clumsy bank heater, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is emerging as a strong and unforgiving man – deflecting U.S. pressure, purging rivals, empowering his son, wife and trusted advisors and allowing dollars to flow to prevent your economy from collapsing.
The result is that the man who was thought to be the pale face of Chavism – a movement named after his magnetic predecessor, Hugo Chávez – is now the robust head of what is increasingly called Madurismo.
“Maduro was underestimated, even within Chavism, and managed to surprise and overcome his enemies inside and out,” said Caracas political analyst Dimitris Pantoulas. “He put trusted people in the most influential positions, replacing those who could challenge his power.”
Unless outside intervention, an increasingly remote possibility, Maduro is likely to remain in charge of Venezuela in the near future. As he lies down, the nature of Madurism becomes clearer. The United Nations Last September’s report referred to extrajudicial executions and arbitrary arrests, accusing the regime of “crimes against humanity” – an accusation rejected by the government.
After rigged elections in December, Maduro snatched the country’s congress – and the last democratic body – from US-backed opposition leader Juan Guaido, naming Jorge Rodriguez as his new leader. Son Nicolas Jr. and wife Cilia Flores won seats as legislators.
While Venezuela’s economy shrank for the seventh consecutive year in 2020, the socialist leader fostered unofficial dollarization and loosened his grip on the private sector. It allowed more than $ 2 billion in, some in the form of a spring economy of the luxury dollar and others in remittances of the 5 million who fled the country, helping it to maneuver around a embargo over its oil and a blockade of its nation’s assets abroad.
Low approval ratings
He did it all with approval ratings below 15%. His opponents are rapidly losing strength, with street demonstrations slowing, despite the collapse of basic goods and services in a country that was once one of the richest in the world. Oil exports, at historic lows, are increasing again.
Allies, such as Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, Jorge’s sister, are rising while opponents, including Diosdado Cabello, are on the sidelines.
A retired army lieutenant and former vice president who joined Chávez in a failed coup in 1992, Cabello led the all-powerful constituent assembly until Maduro ordered his dissolution last year. Cabello now takes on the largely symbolic role of second in command of the socialist party and its organizer in Congress. Cabello did not respond to a request for comment.
In the meantime, Nicolas Jr. took control of the party’s junior group, according to two sources with direct knowledge of the matter. Vice President Rodriguez was also appointed finance minister, a rare double role.
Marginalized
Others close to Chavez, such as former Education Minister Elias Jaua, have found their careers frustrated. Jaua was surrounded by having proposed more democratic methods of decision making and election of leaders within the party, according to three people with knowledge of the subject. He is now a university professor. He did not respond to a request for comment.
Maduro is also said to have forcibly displaced General Miguel Rodriguez Torres, former Minister of Justice and head of Chávez’s intelligence police. He arrested him in 2018, accused by a military court of treason and instigation to rebel after criticizing the government and creating a rival party with Chavist roots, according to members of his party. He remains in prison at Fuerte Tiuna, the country’s military headquarters.
Ruling party legislator Francisco Torrealba, who met Maduro when they both worked on public transport in the early 1990s, acknowledges that many were skeptical of Maduro after Chavez’s death eight years ago. “Today,” he said, “no one doubts the great skills and political wisdom that the president has managed to develop.”
Maduro maintained important military allies, including Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, the senior official in his position.
“The military structure will always lean towards those who control most centers of power,” said Javier Biardeau, a sociologist and professor at the Central University of Venezuela.
Under Maduro, military leaders won important government contracts and mining concessions, as well as control of ports and the state-owned oil company. More recently, they have occupied gas stations across the country as U.S. sanctions tighten the country, which has the largest oil reserves in the world, almost out of gas, leading to endless lines where officers review drivers’ credentials at bombs.
Foreign supporters
Foreign supporters from Maduro, including China, Iran and Russia, continue to play a key role: helping sell millions of barrels of adulterated Venezuelan heavy oil in disguise, sending the much needed fuel and goods in exchange for gold and even agreeing to send millions of shots from Sputnik-V to immunize the nation.
While Guaido retains some global support, the opposition remains divided and without ideas, weakening its position as the confrontation with Maduro drags on and more opposition politicians are forced into exile, imprisoned or legally marginalized.
While previous attempts to negotiate a political end to the crisis have failed, a segment of the opposition hopes to restart negotiations ahead of this year’s municipal and state elections.
Political change in the United States can also help Maduro. Donald Trump highlighted Venezuela and its alliance with Cuba and Nicaragua to put pressure on. President Joe Biden must seek accommodation with Cuba. And while their top advisers have made it clear that they consider Maduro a dictator, they have also shown an interest in changing some of the sanctions.