Large snowstorm will affect 100 million people in the Midwest and Northeast

What appears to be the most impactful snowstorm in winter so far aims to shed snow across the Midwest to the Northeast, impacting more than 100 million people. Some cities can be buried in up to 45 centimeters of snow at the beginning of next week.

Cities from Chicago to Cleveland to Washington, DC to New York are watching and waiting to see what the storm will do as it slides east this Sunday through Tuesday. This is the same storm system as soggy parts of California with an incredible 40 centimeters of rain and more than 100 centimeters of snow last week.

The storm is currently located in the southwest and is moving east. At the same time, the brutal cold engulfed the Great Lakes and the Northeast, where cold winds reach 20 degrees below zero in parts of New England.

This cold air brings with it the promise of a great snowstorm and the complication of perhaps very cold. This is because this cold air is associated with an atmospheric block. The strength of this block will determine whether Washington, DC will be buried under heavy snow or whether the target will be close to New York City and southern New England.

In other words, will this block suppress the storm’s trail to the south or allow the storm to move slowly north? At this juncture, it is too early to know. So far this winter, snowfall in Washington, DC has been almost non-existent, at just a third of an inch.

To block or not to block too much, that is the question. Or really … how much will this block prevent this storm from moving to the northeast? The key area is the confluence with the Northeast. Euro has it strong. Other models are less bold with the confluence. Is the truth somewhere in the middle? pic.twitter.com/ZdKkgehiQf

– Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) January 29, 2021

What we do know is that heavy snow will fall in the Midwest and the Ohio Valley on Saturday night and Sunday, from Chicago to Cleveland and the surrounding area. In total, the heaviest strip of snow is expected to fall 6 to 12 inches by Sunday night, perhaps including Chicago, Indianapolis and Columbus.

On Sunday, the storm will move towards the East Coast, scattering snow in parts of Virginia and southern Pennsylvania. In an effort to undermine the cold air block, the storm will transfer its energy to a developing coastal storm along the coast of North Carolina. Snow can be heavy at times in places like Washington, DC

Now comes the tricky part. Does the storm slide eastward towards the sea, keeping cold air trapped in the Washington area and the target of heavy snow between DC and Atlantic City? Or does the storm move northeast, burying New York, Providence and perhaps Boston in more than a foot of snow?

It’s too early to be sure. But it seems that the blockade scenario will make this event protracted, with some cities seeing snow for 36 hours, from Sunday to Tuesday. Anyone who gets stuck under the heavy band will likely pick up 30 to 18 inches, with isolated spots close to 50 centimeters.

If the snow hits New York City, it will probably start on Monday morning and arrive in Providence on Monday afternoon. The storm is due out on Tuesday night.

Below is a comparison of two models that exhibit two different potential results. The first is the American model GFS on Friday morning, showing heavy snowfall from Washington, DC to New York City. Just below is the Thursday night European race, which shows the heaviest snow sliding south of New York City and reaching eastern New England.

The details will become clearer when a particular city is within 48 hours of the storm’s arrival. So stay tuned …