I have been studying the NFL draft since 1979 and have seen many defenders. Some great, some terrible. Some of the choices from the first round that made it to the Hall of Fame and some of the top 10 choices that were eliminated completely.
So, when I was recently asked where Trevor Lawrence de Clemson ranked among the top-rated quarterbacks I’ve studied, I just said, “He’s up there.” I really wanted to dig deeper and check his grade compared to the rest of mine in the past 40 years or so. The following are the top 10 defenders on that list, based on my pre-draft grades. It does not reflect their performance in the NFL, but where I ranked them the day before their respective draft.
You’ll notice that this list and order is slightly different from when I did something similar in 2011. That’s because I added Andrew Luck from the class of 2012, as well as a defender who is still playing at No. 10. And when I was coming back through From my notes and benchmarking reports, I found that the 2011 list was not very accurate because I was using some March benchmarking reports versus my final April benchmarking reports. Don’t worry though – I’m not hiding how high I was on some legendary busts, as you will see below.
We will examine my top-scoring quarterbacks since 1979, and I will include excerpts from my final Scouting reports, quick notes on how their careers ended and where Lawrence fits into the 2021 class:
Class Draft: 1983
To choose: No. 1 overall, Denver Broncos
What I wrote at the time: “Perhaps the best assessment of his talents was given by Cardinals coach Paul Wiggin, who said, ‘He has John Brodie’s confidence and field instincts, Archie Manning’s special human qualities and Terry Bradshaw’s physical attributes. . ‘ In my final assessment, Elway received the highest marks that anyone can achieve in all categories. He has no noticeable weakness and is the prototype of the QB. Undoubtedly, Elway is an unmissable All-Pro NFL QB that has the ability to make a place for yourself in the Professional Football Hall of Fame. “
Career notes: Elway started 231 games for the Broncos and won two Super Bowls to end his 16-year career in the NFL. His 300 career touchdowns go to 12th place of all time. He entered the Professional Football Hall of Fame in 2004.
Class Draft: 2012
To choose: No. 1 overall, Indianapolis Colts
What I wrote at the time: “Luck has it all – size, incredible intelligence, precision and a great work ethic. I compare him a lot to Peyton Manning, but Luck is more athletic. Because of that, expectations for Luck are going to increase. He has the general makeup for deal with that kind of pressure and continue to enjoy a career that lives up to all the hype. “
Career notes: Luck made four Pro Bowls in his seven-year career before abruptly retiring before the 2019 season. He was named NFL Comeback Player of the Year in 2018 after losing the entire 2017 season to injuries. He ended his career with 171 touchdown passes and 83 interceptions.
Class Draft: 1998
To choose: No. 1 overall, Indianapolis Colts
What I wrote at the time: “He won’t provide Steve Young’s extra dimension, but I can’t think of a player I would rather have at the center, leading my football team into battle. With the free agency, teams are changing staff each year. The need for consistency and leadership in QB is more critical than ever. Manning will win and win a lot at the professional level, provided, of course, he gets the help he needs from his teammates and the organization. “
Career notes: Manning launched 28 interceptions as a rookie, but then established himself as an elite quarterback. He was named All-Pro of the main team seven times, was named MVP of the regular season five times and won two Super Bowl titles, one with the Colts and one with the Broncos. He will enter the Hall of Fame in class 2021 later this year.
Class Draft: 2021
Pre-draft of the assessment report: “Lawrence is clearly the best candidate in this class. He will take first place for the Jaguars and will have the chance to lead this franchise’s turnaround alongside coach Urban Meyer. He has everything the NFL teams want in a starting quarterback, from size to talent talent for the ability to process readings and make the right move. Lawrence ended his career at Clemson with 108 touchdowns in total (18 races) and just 17 interceptions over three seasons. “
Lawrence had surgery to repair damage to his left shoulder lip last month. He told ESPN’s Stephania Bell that his rehab is going better than expected and that he should be ready for the training camp in July.
Class Draft: 1983
To choose: No. 14 overall, Buffalo Bills
What I wrote at the time: “Kelly has accumulated impressive statistics during his career and, like John Elway, played against a very strong competition (six bowling teams in 1981). Outside Elway, Kelly is the most talented of the QBs to leave college this season. The transition to professional football should be quiet. He would have been one of the first five players called up had he not been injured, but he should still go in the middle of the first round, depending on the result of the shoulder tests near the service day. I have a feeling that within three years Kelly will be considered one of the best NFL QBs. “
Career notes: Kelly rejected Bills for the USFL rookie, playing two seasons for the Houston Gamblers. He joined Buffalo in 1986 and played 11 seasons for the Bills, leading them to four consecutive Super Bowls. He was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2002.
Class Draft: nineteen ninety
To choose: Seventh overall, Detroit Lions
What I wrote at the time: “A key factor in achieving such a high ranking is the leadership qualities he has, as well as his intelligence, poise and general presence. I could talk about his qualities as a player and person forever, but I need space for others Must be the first QB selected in any draft, he’s so good! In fact, if he goes to the right team, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him lead his club to the Super Bowl early in his professional career. that he doesn’t, you can be sure that he will have a successful career, earning great honors during his stay in the NFL. “
Career notes: Ware has only played six games over the course of four seasons in the NFL, throwing five touchdown passes and eight choices. Rodney Peete was the Lions’ favorite starter under coach Wayne Fontes.
Class Draft: 1993
To choose: No. 1 overall, New England Patriots
What I wrote at the time: “I have praised his level of skill and raw potential since he entered the WSU campus in 1990, and nothing has changed since then to dampen my enthusiasm. Like all maturing young QBs, he needs to develop a little more touch. No QB in the college football, whether this year or in the years to come, can touch Bledsoe in terms of gross physical potential, which is why he is ranked as the overall number one player on my leaderboard and is clearly the most coveted candidate in the draft. “
Career notes: Bledsoe had a good career, but perhaps he is now better known as the guy who lost his initial job to Tom Brady – and Brady has become the greatest defender of all time. Bledsoe took the Patriots to the Super Bowl in 1996 and also started games for the Cowboys and Bills after leaving New England. He launched 251 career touchdown passes.
8. Ryan Leaf, Washington State
Class Draft: 1998
To choose: No. 2 overall, San Diego Chargers
What I wrote at the time: “Physically, he always had what it takes to be one of the first selected players. However, it was his attention to detail last summer and his willingness to invest time in the field of practice that pushed him to the top in terms of development in a complete QB. Leaf is the type that can, alone, put a team in the winning column, which at the professional level is the definitive sign of greatness. “
Career notes: Leaf vs. Manning was a big debate in 1998, and the Colts made the right choice with the first choice. Leaf had a bleak career, going from 4-17 in his career as an NFL starter. He was released by the Chargers after three “turbulent” seasons. “With Ryan, there were a lot of problems off the field that I should have paid more attention to,” said former Chargers general manager Bobby Beathard years later. Leaf ended his career with 14 touchdown passes and 36 choices.
Class Draft: 1989
To choose: No. 1 overall, Dallas Cowboys
What I wrote at the time: “Aikman has a remarkable physical / athletic talent, under 4.7 and almost 220 pounds. He throws everything by the ear, using his quick release to avoid possible bags. His mobility is a real advantage, allowing him to move the pocket, delivering the ball accurately while rolling both ways. He classifies himself as a super blue chipper capable of turning a cellar dweller into a candidate early in his professional career. However, like all young QBs, he will need time to hone his skills at the professional level. to be at a certain disadvantage due to the fact that he does not have the general experience of former highlights like John Elway, Dan Marino, Jim Kelly and Vinny Testaverde, having really only played two full years at the university level. “
Career notes: Aikman went 0-11 as a starter as a rookie, but he and the Cowboys came out on top. He won three Super Bowl titles and made six Pro Bowl teams over 12 seasons. He was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2006.
Class Draft: 2018
To choose: No. 7 overall, Buffalo Bills
What I wrote at the time: “Allen crushed the pre-draft process and is in the mix to be the No. 1 overall choice. He showed improvements in the Senior Bowl and the harvester, and he has a high roof. Allen is super raw, but he can really His numbers don’t were large in 2016 (28 touchdown passes, 15 interceptions when completing 56% of their passes), and their numbers were not large in 2017 (16 touchdown passes, six interceptions when completing 56.3% of their passes)), but the NFL teams will take the talent around them into account. The Wyoming attack lost 47 touchdowns from the 2016 team, along with its center. I think Allen’s numbers will be much better in an NFL attack with NFL players. put some strong points in filming together in the Cowboys’ victory in the bowl, throwing three touchdown passes in the first half, even while recovering from a shoulder injury. “
Career notes: Allen erupted in Year 3 in Buffalo, completing 69.2% of his passes and launching 37 touchdown passes with just 10 choices. He finished second in the MVP vote while leading Bills for the AFC title game. Allen, who turns 25 this summer, has topped the list of NFL callers.
Next in list
The notes are extremely similar here, but here’s who’s next, in no order: