Dozens of countries have banned UK travel in an effort to contain a new Covid-19 variant first reported in England.
The new mutation is being called VUI-202012/01 – the first “variant under investigation” in the UK in December 2020. While scientists are looking for more information about the variant, its impact is already being felt, with dozens of countries imposing restrictions on UK travelers.
Here’s what we know so far about the Covid-19 variant:
What is a variant and why are employees concerned about it? A variant occurs when the genetic structure of a virus changes. All viruses mutate over time and new variants are common, including for the new coronavirus.
Like other variants, this one carries a genetic fingerprint that makes it easy to track, and is one that is now widespread in southeastern England. This in itself does not necessarily mean that a variant is more contagious or dangerous.
But scientists advising the UK government estimate that this variant may be up to 70% more effective in spreading than others. Peter Horby, chairman of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threat Advisory Group (NERVTAG), said on Monday that experts “now have great confidence that this variant has a transmission advantage” over other variants.
The World Health Organization said on Tuesday that changes in the variant include 14 major mutations, and that some of them “may influence the transmissibility of the virus in humans”, although it added that more laboratory investigations are needed.
Where did the variant originate and how did it establish itself? The new variant is believed to have originated in southeastern England, according to the WHO. Public Health England (PHE) says retroactive screening, using genetic evidence, suggests that the variant first appeared in England in September. Then it circulated at very low levels until mid-November.
Chris Whitty, England’s medical director, said on Saturday that the variant was responsible for 60% of new infections in London, which almost doubled just last week.
Several experts also suggested that this new variant could have been expanded because of an over-spreading event, which means that the current increase in cases may also have been caused by human behavior.
Is the new variant more deadly? There is no evidence so far to suggest that the new variant is more deadly, according to Whitty and the WHO, although it is too early to say.
Several experts noted that, in some cases, virus mutations that increase transmissibility are accompanied by a drop in virulence and mortality rates.
“As viruses are transmitted, those that allow greater virological ‘success’ can be selected, which changes the properties of the virus over time. This usually leads to more transmission and less virulence,” Martin Hibberd, professor of emerging infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, he told SMC.
Learn more about the UK coronavirus variant here.