Updated opinion polls from two of Israel’s top TV networks show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc with 59 or 60 seats, just below the 61 needed by the majority.
The current situation: Initial projections released at the close of the polls on Tuesday showed the Netanyahu bloc with 61 seats, which would be enough to form a majority government. The most recent results, updated based on initial returns, show a profoundly uncertain result.
The big picture: Three inconclusive elections have left Israel in a prolonged political crisis. If the Netanyahu bloc wins a majority in Israel’s fourth election in two years, it could form the most religious and conservative coalition in the country’s history and potentially take steps to undermine its corruption trial.
- If the broad bloc of anti-Netanyahu parties – from left to conservative – ends the majority, there may be an effort to form a government that excludes Netanyahu. That would be very difficult.
- But these parties could potentially pass a law, targeting Netanyahu, to ban anyone on a criminal charge from serving as prime minister.
Between the lines: Even if the right-wing bloc reaches 61, forming a government can be tricky.
- The 61-seat projection for the Netanyahu bloc includes a conservative party led by former technology entrepreneur Naftali Bennet, who had been trying to position himself as an unaligned king-maker, but more recently appears to have switched to Netanyahu’s column.
Worthless: Tuesday’s election had the lowest turnout since 2009, and was particularly low among Israel’s Arab majority. Parties to the Joint Arab List may see their representation shrink by 40% -50%.
- The far-right list of “Religious Zionism”, which includes members of a Jewish supremacy party, is expected to win 6-7 seats.
What to watch: Projections will continue to be updated overnight.