Copenhagen in February 2020.
Photographer: NurPhoto / NurPhoto
Photographer: NurPhoto / NurPhoto
Vaccines are being launched, slowly but surely, around the world. Does this mean that it is time to think about traveling?
The tourism industry would like to say yes. According to the latest data from the World Travel and Tourism Council, published in early November, travel restrictions caused by the coronavirus pandemic were designed to take $ 4.7 trillion out of global gross domestic product in 2020 alone.
But medical professionals still call for caution – a message that will remain imperative, even after individuals have been vaccinated against Covid-19.
Among his warnings: Vaccines are not 100% effective; it takes weeks to build immunity (after the second injection), little is known about the ability to transmit Covid-19, even after immunization; and the herd’s immunity is still a long way off. Their consensus is that the risks will remain, but freedom of movement can safely increase – allowing at least certain types of travel – among individuals with protection from the virus.
Yes, you will still need to wear a mask.
Here’s what else you need to know about travel safety in the coming months, whether you’ve given it a try or are looking for normalcy somewhere on the horizon.
What we know and what we don’t know
Covid-19 vaccines approved to date in both the US and Europe have proven to be exceptionally safe, effective and the strongest tool in combating the pandemic. Even so, there are known unknowns, mainly with regard to the possible transmission of the virus after vaccination.
A nurse administers a vaccine at NYU-Langone Hospital in New York.
Photographer: Kevin Hagen / AP
This issue comes down to one point: clinical trials for currently approved vaccines, including those from Pfizer and Moderna, did not include regular PCR tests from study participants. Without any data on their ability to carry the virus, there is sufficient conclusive evidence just to suggest that vaccines provide 95% effective protection against symptomatic infections, says Dr. Kristin Englund, an infectious disease specialist at the Cleveland Clinic.
“Mostly, if you are vaccinated against [a disease]- say chickenpox or measles – you shouldn’t be able to pass the virus on to someone else, ”explains Englund, adding that there is no known reason to believe that Covid-19 or its related vaccines should behave differently. “I predict that is what we will see [with Covid-19 vaccines as well], but we have to wait until studies prove it before we let our guard down substantially. “
There are other important unknowns as well. “Seeing a 95% effective vaccine – these are impressive numbers, much better than we had ever predicted,” says Englund. “But we don’t have the capacity now to know who will have a good answer [to the vaccine] and who will be one of the 5%. “
How to think about herd immunity
Another unknown, to a lesser extent, is what will be needed to achieve herd immunity.
“The general consensus is that it will take anywhere from 70% to 80% [of the population being immune] to eliminate widespread risk – perhaps more, ”says Dr. Scott Weisenberg, who serves as director of the NYU infectious disease scholarship program and as medical director of the university’s travel medicine program. “We are many months away from that, assuming that the vaccine actually removes transmission and that people get it.”
At best, where everything goes well, Weisenberg believes that collective immunity can be achieved in the US sometime this summer, pending approval for easier-to-distribute vaccines such as that of AstraZeneca, which could speed up the launch.
However, this is highly unlikely.
“Vaccine acceptance is a major key issue,” he adds. For him, the World Health Organization called vaccination hesitation as one of the The top 10 threats to public health in 2019, even before Covid-19 came on the scene.
But the herd’s immunity can be diced in several ways.
“You can talk about collective immunity within a state, within a smaller community or even within a family,” adds Englund. “So if everyone in a room gets vaccinated except one, you should be able to offer that person more protection.”
This is a notable consideration for family reunions whose younger members may take longer to qualify for the vaccine than older or more at risk members. (Currently approved vaccines have not yet been tested or approved for children by the US Food and Drug Administration, which could prevent air travel between multigenerational groups until 2021.)
A safari in Kenya may seem like a good option for a socially distant vacation, but you should consider your transfers
Source: Asilia Africa
Deciding where to go on the next vacation – and who to travel with – may have more to do with antibodies than normal considerations like climate and price.
“Definitely look at the current infection rate in that area and, of course, the vaccination rate for that population – these are two very important things,” says Englund.
Don’t be surprised if it looks like a counterintuitive exercise, adds Weisenberg.
For example, in New York City, where 25% of the population is believed to have contracted Covid-19, herd immunity may require proportionally fewer vaccinations if previously infected people maintain equivalent antibodies.
“The risk [of picking up or spreading the virus] can really be relatively low, ”says Weisenberg of the visit to Manhattan, given the stringent blocking measures, the historic acceptance of vaccines in urban areas compared to rural areas and the high Covid-19 test rates among the local population – despite the incredible population density.
Go to Kenya, where you can have a perfectly socially distant safari, he adds, and you may have to go through places like Nairobi, where tests are low and it is difficult to get an accurate picture of the risk in real time.
The evolving definition of “safe travel”
Expect the definition of safe travel to change week by week, especially as parts of the world repress the increase in cases related to vacation travel and new variants of the virus.
“You have to consider the issues of going somewhere and bringing the virus back to an area where it is important,” says Weisenberg. He hopes that the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will eventually have staggered alerts for destinations, depending on local risk, in the vein of the agency’s measles alerts, but says: “It is too widespread now to isolate in this way.”
A good idea may be to research hospital availability data (and specifically ICU beds) before committing to vacation anywhere, to ensure that the local system is not overloaded.
A Delta aircraft being disinfected.
Photographer: Michael A. McCoy / Getty Images North America
Weisenberg also believes that increasing the accuracy of the Covid-19 antigen rapid tests will help ensure safety as mobility increases; it is noteworthy that the new US entry requirements include negative test results, even for those who have already been vaccinated.
“I’m going to get on a plane; I will be honest with you, ”says Englund. “I will wear a mask, I will make sure that we have seats where we are not sitting next to someone else, with appropriate space between them, using all the hand sanitizer.
“We are going to get an Airbnb and have a good time on the beach,” she continues, “and if we visit the places, we will pretend that we have not been vaccinated – approaching things with the same care that we would have had before-vaccine. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with that. “