Although analysts initially estimated that the TPLF had 250,000 armed men, it quickly became clear that its strength was much less. Government soldiers and allied ethnic militias surrounded TPLF forces, closing Ethiopia’s borders with Eritrea and Sudan, effectively cutting off rebel supply lines.
And the TPLF received an unexpected blow when soldiers from Eritrea, Ethiopia’s former enemy, crossed over to Tigray to fight alongside Abiy’s forces. In such conditions, experts say, it is not clear how long the TPLF can resist.
Still, the situation is fluid and unpredictable. Border conflicts between Ethiopia and Sudan in recent weeks, over a disputed piece of land, could play in favor of the TPLF. if Sudan helps the rebels to refuel.
And the main military commanders of the TPLF remain at large. Two Western officials and one from the TPLF, who were not allowed to speak publicly, identified Lt. Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae, a former Ethiopian army chief, as a senior rebel leader.
General Tsadkan led Ethiopia in the fight against Eritrea during the two countries’ brutal border war between 1998 and 2000. In recent years, after retiring from the army, he ran a small brewery. Now 66, he is back in the fight with the newly formed Tigray Defense Forces, fighting the Ethiopian army he commanded.
A TPLF fortress, Western officials said, lies in the Tembien Mountains, a cluster of rugged hills and narrow, winding roads in central Tigray – part of a mountain massif often called the “roof of Africa”.
Kjetil Tronvoll, a TPLF expert at Bjorknes University College in Oslo, said the party’s leadership probably dispersed into small groups to spread the risk of capture.