Former President Donald J. Trump’s second impeachment trial begins on Tuesday, about a month after he was accused by the House of inciting insurrection for his role in inciting a violent crowd that invaded the Capitol on January 6. .
Here’s what you need to know.
How will the judgment develop?
Senate Democrats and Republicans, along with House impeachment managers and Trump’s legal team, reached a bipartisan agreement on Monday that would pave the way for an especially fast and efficient process that could end early next week.
The rules allow each side up to 16 hours to present their case. The Senate must vote to approve the rules and formally start the trial at 1 pm Tuesday.
Up to four hours will be dedicated to the debate on the constitutionality of the impeachment of a president who is no longer in office. If the simple majority of senators agree to move on, as expected, the main part of the trial begins.
Starting on Wednesday, the Public Ministry and the defense will have 16 hours each to present their cases to senators, who act as jurors. The oral arguments will continue at least until Friday, but may continue until next week.
Tradition dictates that senators have at least one day to ask questions. This time, senators may give House administrators the option to force a debate and vote to call witnesses, but it is unclear whether they will decide to do so. The trial is expected to end with final arguments and a final vote on Mr. Trump’s sentencing.
The Trump Impeachment ›
What do you need to know
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- A trial is underway to decide whether former President Donald J. Trump is guilty of inciting a deadly crowd of his supporters when they invaded the Capitol on January 6, violently violating security measures and sending lawmakers into hiding while they met to certify the death of President Biden victory.
- The House voted 232 to 197 to approve a single impeachment article, accusing Trump of “inciting violence against the United States government” in his quest to overturn the election results. Ten Republicans joined the Democrats in the vote to challenge him.
- To condemn Trump, the Senate would need a two-thirds majority to agree. This means that at least 17 Republican senators would have to vote with Senate Democrats to condemn.
- A conviction seems unlikely. Last month, only five Republicans in the Senate sided with Democrats in an attempt to repel a Republican attempt to dismiss the charges because Trump is no longer in office. On the eve of the start of the trial, 28 senators say they are undecided about Trump’s sentencing.
- If the Senate condemns Trump, finding him guilty of “inciting violence against the United States government”, senators will be able to vote if they will prevent him from holding a future position. Such a vote would require only a simple majority, and if it were about party lines, Democrats would prevail, with Vice President Kamala Harris voting decisively.
- If the Senate does not condemn Trump, the former president could run for public office again. Public opinion polls show that he remains by far the most popular national figure in the Republican Party.
What are the arguments on both sides?
In a quick and cinematic case, House administrators will argue before the Senate that Trump is guilty of inciting a deadly crowd of his supporters to invade the Capitol on January 6.
The prosecution plans to show videos captured by the crowd, Trump’s naked words and criminal appeals from troublemakers who said they acted on the former president’s orders. In an attempt to rekindle the outrage over the attack, which made lawmakers hide when they met to certify President Biden’s victory, House managers seek a conviction and prevent Trump from taking office again.
“We think every American should be aware of what happened,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin, a Maryland Democrat and chief prosecutor, in an interview. “That the reason he was accused by the House and the reason he must be convicted and disqualified from taking up a future federal office is to ensure that such an attack on our democracy and constitution never happens again.”
In a 78-page report presented on Monday, Trump’s lawyers argued that the impeachment process was unconstitutional because Congress has no basis for trying a former president. No former president has been impeached, but the trial is not without precedent: the Senate tried a war secretary in the 1870s after he stepped down.
On Friday, more than 140 constitutional lawyers attacked the argument put forward by Trump’s lawyers, calling it “legally frivolous”. However, it can still give Republican senators political coverage to reject the charges on a technicality, without being forced to focus on Trump’s behavior.
Is Mr. Trump likely to be convicted?
Regardless of what unfolds in the discussions over the week, few expect a sufficient number of Senate Republicans to vote differently than they did in Trump’s first impeachment trial.
Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Carolina, said this on Sunday, suggesting on CBS’s “Face the Nation” program that the outcome of the trial “was really not in doubt.”
When the Senate voted to acquit Trump last year, Utah Sen. Mitt Romney was the only Republican to join Democrats in the vote to condemn.
This time, he may not be alone.
Several other Republicans, including Senators Ben Sasse of Nebraska, Patrick J. Toomey of Pennsylvania and Susan Collins of Maine, indicated that they had serious concerns about Trump’s role in inciting violence.
But less than two weeks ago, 45 Republicans voted to dismiss the entire impeachment process as unconstitutional, strongly indicating that the 67-vote limit – or two-thirds of the chamber – needed to convict may be out of reach.
How can I follow the trial?
The New York Times Congressional team will follow events on Capitol Hill. Visit nytimes.com for weekday coverage.
The proceedings will also be broadcast online by C-SPAN and televised by major networks, including CNN and PBS.