Implementing a nationwide masking mandate, combined with complementary public health measures, could reduce the spread of coronavirus to virtually zero and have a potential impact of $ 1 trillion on U.S. GDP, according to UCLA researchers Fielding School of Public Health.
The team’s research “makes it clear that even as vaccines are being developed and new variants, such as B.1.7.7, are being discovered, the power to protect us remains in our hands, as individuals,” said co-author Anne Rimoin, Professor of epidemiology at UCLA Fielding School.
“Wearing a mask is one of the simplest, most effective and inexpensive ways to do just that – and it has been proven by the history of epidemiology in the past century, since the 1918-19 influenza pandemic and even before that, ” she said.
“Reducing the spread of the disease requires two things: limiting the contacts of infected individuals through physical distance and other measures and reducing the likelihood of transmission by contact, ‘” said co-author Christina Ramirez, professor of biostatistics at Fielding School. ” The preponderance of evidence indicates the use of a mask reduces transmissibility by contact, reducing the transmission of infected respiratory particles in laboratory and clinical contexts. ”
The results – published in the January issue of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a peer-reviewed journal – were the work of an international team of 19 UCLA experts and more than a dozen other universities and research centers, including Oxford University, University of Cape Town, Peking University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and University of San Francisco.
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R0, pronounced “R nada”, is a mathematical term that indicates how contagious an infectious disease is. It is also known as the reproduction number. As an infection is transmitted to new people, it reproduces. Reducing reproduction to zero, in turn, could add $ 1 trillion to US GDP, the authors said.
“When used in conjunction with widespread testing, contact tracking, quarantine of anyone who may be infected, hand washing and physical distance, face masks are an invaluable tool in reducing community transmission, ” said Rimoin.` All of these measures, through their effects on R0, have the potential to reduce the number of infections. As governments get out of the roadblocks, keeping transmissions low enough to preserve health care capacity will be critical until vaccines can be developed and widely delivered. ”
To reach their conclusions, the team examined a wide range of new and existing studies and research, including work that goes back to a 1910 plague outbreak in northeastern China. Still, according to the researchers, scientists fighting plague recognized that the cloth mask was “the primary means of personal protection”.
There is also ample evidence of the current pandemic, said study co-author Jeremy Howard, a research scientist at the University of San Francisco.
“At the end of June 2020, almost 90% of the global population lived in regions that had almost universal mask use or had laws that required the use of a mask in some public places, and mask use in the community was recommended by almost all major public health agencies, “Howard said.” This is a radical change since the early days of the pandemic, when masks were rarely recommended or used.
The researchers came to a variety of conclusions, including:
- Facial masks were 79% effective in preventing transmission, if used by all family members before symptoms occurred.
- The use of a mask was strongly protective, with a risk reduction of 70% for those who always wore a mask when leaving.
- Transmission was 7.5 times higher in countries that did not have a mask mandate.
- The difference between US states with masked mandates and those without detected that the daily growth rate was 2 percentage points lower in states with masked mandates, estimating that mandates avoided 230.00 to 450,000 COVID-19 cases until the last May 22nd.
- Face masks have a major effect on reducing infections and fatalities, with a potential impact on US GDP of $ 1 trillion if a nationwide mask order were implemented.
- The marginal benefit per used fabric mask is in the range of $ 3,000 to $ 6,000.