GREEN BAY, Wis. – Matt LaFleur said that while he regretted his decision to take the ball out of Aaron Rodgers ‘hands and kick a field goal with 2:09 remaining in the Green Bay Packers’ 31-26 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday, he relied on the thinking behind the move.
With eight points lost (31-23) at the time and facing the fourth and the goal at the 8-yard line, LaFleur sent Mason Crosby to a 26-yard field goal instead of giving Rodgers another shot in the end zone (and then a 2-point conversation attempt) to tie the score.
Crosby converted, but Rodgers never recovered the ball thanks to Tom Brady and an interference in the pass to Packers’ cornerback Kevin King, which allowed the Bucs to run out of time.
“Yes, whenever it doesn’t work, you always regret it, right?” LaFleur said after the game. “It was just the circumstance of having three shots and going without yards and knowing that you not only need the touchdown, but you need the 2 points [conversion]. The way I was looking, we basically had four timeouts with a two-minute warning.
“We knew we needed to make a stop and I thought we were going to make a stop there at the end, but we were called to [defensive pass interference] and it didn’t work. I think that whenever something goes wrong, do you regret it? Sure, but we’re always going to be guided by the process here, and the way our defense was fighting, the way our defense was playing, it seemed like the right decision to make. It just didn’t work. “
Rodgers understood the thought, but after the game he said, “It wasn’t my decision.” He said LaFleur gave him the option to call the previous move on the third down – a move that resulted in confusion and a throw-away when Rodgers might have been able to execute it.
Rodgers said he could have called a different move if he had known that LaFleur would opt for a field goal.
“I thought we might have four chances to go,” said Rodgers.
According to ESPN’s probability of victory model, the Packers had a 10% chance of winning when trying on the fourth down and a 9.5% chance of winning by kicking a field goal.
The model also suggested that the Packers needed a 21% chance of conversion to justify going to the touchdown there, with an average league conversion rate at that location of 23%. The Packers were the number one offensive this season.
Earlier, LaFleur opted for a 2-point conversation after Rodgers’ 2-yard touchdown pass to Davante Adams, 24 seconds from the end of the fourth period, made it 28-23. Packers ‘receiver Equanimeous St. Brown dropped Rodgers’ pass into the end zone. According to the ESPN model, the failure in the 2-point attempt was the correct decision from an analytical point of view.
However, by losing a point that they would have gotten for an extra point made, the Packers later found themselves in the position of having eight hits and therefore needing a touchdown and a 2 point conversation in the final minutes before their last objective field.
Tampa Bay coach Bruce Arians said he thought the decision was the right one – “I thought they had a lot of confidence in their defense at the time,” he said – but linebacker Shaq Barrett said he was surprised by what unfolded.
“I couldn’t honestly believe it, because there was no guarantee that they would be able to get back there again, even if they were on the fourth descent – they should try,” said Barrett. “I know our attack – they’ve been amazing in their four-minute attack this year, not giving the team the ball – so I had the greatest confidence in them. But, I know that if he could go back, he probably wouldn’t do that in the first place. next time. “
Although LaFleur was not necessarily talking about the field goal decision, he said towards the end of his press conference that he was not at the top of his game.
“I felt that we had a lot of opportunities tonight to enjoy and get the job done,” said LaFleur. “We didn’t do that, and it falls on me, and it’s a hard pill to swallow when you’re responsible for everyone in this organization to make sure you’re at your best, and I don’t feel like I was tonight. I’m really disappointed that [I] disappoint a lot of people. “
ESPN’s Jenna Laine contributed to this story.