Republicans are concerned that the battle between President Trump
Donald TrumpUN report says Erik Prince violated arms embargo against Libya: Lee report after Romney impeachment vote: There is enough space in the Republican Party ‘for both of us’ Nunes lawsuit against CNN is rejected MORE and Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell
Addison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellOn The Money: What’s next for Neera Tanden’s nomination The elephant in the room: Trump’s remaining power 17 state attorneys call for K to be canceled on student loan debt MORE (R-Ky.) It could torpedo its efforts to win back the majorities in the House and Senate in 2022.
GOP operatives believe they are in a position to turn both chambers if they can race against President biden
Joe BidenREAD: Gigantic COVID-19 relief bill from House Democrats House panel reveals relief package .9T Nunes lawsuit against CNN filed MOREcompany agenda and avoid a destructive civil war.
Democrats are clinging to the smallest majority in the House in modern times and to a 50-50 split in the Senate. The new government party has historically lost seats in its first half-term cycle.
But Republicans fear they may miss these opportunities amid the unpleasant dispute that broke out between Trump and McConnell over the future of the party.
The division can depress fundraising, decrease participation, alienate undecided voters and push bad candidates for general elections in divided primary camps, Republicans say.
Republican operative veteran Brian Walsh pointed to the Republican Party’s recent failures in Georgia as evidence of the kind of calamity that awaits them if Republicans are fighting themselves on election day.
Trump’s allegations of systemic electoral fraud destroyed the party before the second round of the Georgia Senate, eroding participation both among Trump supporters in the northern part of the state and among undecided voters in the suburbs.
Republicans lost fierce disputes over both seats in the traditionally red state, which cost them a majority in the Senate.
“Rhetoric and false claims definitely impacted Georgia attendance,” said Walsh. “When Republicans talk about personal complaints, it undermines the effort to win back the majority. The scenario, at least to start this cycle, is not terribly favorable to Republicans, so each seat will be important here. “
Privately, many Republicans believe they are more likely to win the House back than the Senate.
Republicans need to win less than 10 seats to retake the majority in the House, after drawing 15 seats in the last cycle.
In the Senate, the map is complicated for Republicans.
Pickup opportunities exist in purple states like Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and New Hampshire, but Trump lost all of those states in 2020.
Republicans are also defending Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, two decisive states that Trump lost in 2020 but won in 2016. There is a vacancy held by the Republican Party in North Carolina, which Trump barely won.
McConnell and leader of the Republican Party Kevin McCarthy
Kevin McCarthy17 state attorney generals call for cancellation of K on student loan debts Rift Trump-McConnell divides Republican donors Trump declined meeting in Mar-a-Lago with Nikki Haley MORE (California) followed different paths with Trump that may influence how some of these races unfold.
McCarthy, whose caucus is full of Trump supporters, continues to consider him the leader of the GOP. McConnell is encouraging his party to leave Trump.
There are dozens of unanswered questions surrounding Trump’s involvement in 2022, including whether he will raise funds for Senate Republicans and how aggressively he will support primary opponents.
Trump’s allies say it is possible that the rivalry between Trump and McConnell will not explode in the huge civil war that everyone anticipates if McConnell retreats. Trump is known for moving quickly from one target to another and likes to support the winners.
But if the battle continues to escalate, they say McConnell has found an opponent in Trump who has the full support of most Republicans and a corresponding fundraising operation.
“If you worry about Republicans having a cycle of success in the Senate, the best thing is for Mitch and everyone around him to step back and take a deep breath and hope that some of these issues will naturally dissipate on Trump’s side,” said a former adviser to Trump’s campaigns.
“Stinging Trump continuously in the eye does not lead to the success of the Republican Party in the Senate and is not a fair fight,” said the adviser. “Usually, the fight is armed against anti-establishment types, but this time it is totally rigged against Mitch and the establishment because 80% of our voters disagree with him and he is no longer facing someone over whom he has a huge financial advantage.”
McConnell’s primary goal in rebuking Trump appears to be to free the party from marginal candidates who have lost win-win runs in the past and to attract unremitting media attention if they arrive in Washington.
Republicans remember the Tea Party primaries very clearly and blame bad insurgent candidates for losing at least five Senate contests between 2010 and 2012.
By denouncing the worst elements of Trump’s base and calling on members of the House, such as Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), McConnell hopes to bring together Republicans in support of conservatives who can win the primaries and general elections.
“Mitch believes we can win back the Senate if we recruit good candidates in some of the seats occupied by Democrats and support them with money and experience,” said Charlie Black, a veteran Republican operative. “He has a good record of doing that. Trump is, of course, a factor if he enters any of these disputes and supports right-wing candidates. But these are decisive states and should not be placed in Trump’s hands. Put them in the hands of good candidates and give them the support of the national party ”.
The tension between Trump and McConnell has made life difficult for Senator Rick Scott (Florida), who is chairing the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) in this cycle.
McConnell is deeply involved in the NRSC, but Scott is close to Trump.
The Florida senator is pushing for unity among Republicans as the cycle heats up.
He and other Republicans are hopeful that they can move from intra-party battles to focus on the Democratic agenda.
“We have a long, long way to go between now and election day,” said a Republican member of the Senate. “Democrats in Congress are helping to prevent schools from reopening and promoting radical policies like open borders, higher taxes and the New Green Deal. Republicans are unified against this agenda and will come together to defeat it at the polls in 2022. ”