A series of retaliatory movements and hostile statements between Washington and Tehran are putting the Biden government’s plans for a return to the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran in jeopardy each day.
“You cannot act with impunity. Be careful,” President Joe Biden told reporters on Friday, describing his message to Iran after ordering air strikes against buildings in eastern Syria that the Pentagon says are being used by militias supported by Iran.
The attacks were in retaliation for a February 15 attack in which rockets hit Erbil International Airport in Iraq, which is home to the coalition’s military forces. The attack, which Western and Iraqi officials attribute to Iran-backed militia forces, killed one US-led coalition contractor and wounded several others, including an American military. Iran rejects the accusations of its involvement.
None of this bodes well for what the Biden government considers a foreign policy priority: a return to the Iranian nuclear deal, also known as JCPOA, which was signed under the Obama administration with various world powers and lifted economic sanctions on Iran in exchange brakes to your nuclear program.
The deal has largely collapsed since the Trump administration unilaterally abandoned it in 2018 and imposed comprehensive sanctions on Iran that paralyzed its economy.
Whether or when the deal can be reactivated is a critical issue for foreign policy and the legacy of Biden’s team in the Middle East. Former US diplomat Joseph Westphal, who served as ambassador to Saudi Arabia during Obama’s second term, does not believe this will happen in the short or even the medium term.
“I don’t think we’re going to see a deal” this year, Westphal told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Monday. “I think we can see the start of negotiations to reach an agreement. The end of the year is coming fast. And I think that these things take a long time.”
An invitation and a rejection
In early February, Biden’s team took an important step in offering to start informal negotiations with Tehran, signaling the first US diplomatic reach in more than four years. Iran’s leadership over the weekend rejected the invitation.
Attempting some kind of rapprochement is complicated for Biden. He faces substantial internal opposition in the Iran deal and does not want to appear “soft” to the country’s regime, especially at a time when Iran is increasing its uranium enrichment and storage in violation of the agreement, measures that bring it closer to capacity. bomb manufacturing.
Tehran insists that this is a response to U.S. sanctions and that its actions can be reversed if sanctions are lifted first; Biden, meanwhile, says he will only lift economic penalties if Tehran reverses its violations. Therefore, the two are at an impasse.
Tehran last week limited the UN nuclear watchdog’s access to its nuclear activities, putting the business in even greater danger, although inspectors still maintain some access. And on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Iran of being behind an attack on one of its tankers off the coast of Oman on Friday. Iran denies any involvement.
Attempts to level the playing field
Still, not everyone believes that a return to JCPOA cannot happen this year. Ayham Kamel, head of the Eurasia Group’s political risk advisory department for the Middle East, sees the current escalations as an attempt to balance the playing field.
“There is no easy road to JCPOA plus. I think whatever is happening in the region now – part of the escalation in Iraq, part of the escalation in Iran, even the Iranians rejecting the first offer of direct negotiations with the US – I think all of this is a pre-negotiation negotiation, “said Kamel.
“It is an effort to really balance the field, the Iranians trying to get the most out of this process. JCPOA will happen, re-entry will happen sometime this year in my opinion, but it will be difficult. “
Kamel added that the Iranian leadership itself remains divided over the return to the deal, as it weighs the need for economic sanctions relief and its opposition to yielding to US demands.
“The supreme leader wants an agreement, but many in the IRGC (Revolutionary Guard Corps) do not necessarily want to see the start of a weak negotiation,” he said, referring to Iran’s powerful parallel ideological military force. “They want the negotiations start from a strong position and the regional escalation is part of that. ”
Others believe that a return to the deal is inevitable simply because Iran’s economy has been heavily devastated by sanctions. Its currency is in free fall, its exports have been reduced and the Iranians are struggling to buy food and medicine.
“I think, ultimately, a deal is possible,” Richard Goldberg, of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, told CNBC earlier this month, “because the Iranians need money.”