Flooded hospitals expose the depth of Britain’s growing crisis

If the British government’s goal during the coronavirus pandemic was to protect healthcare, the coming weeks will be the biggest challenge yet.

After overtaking Italy again as the country with the highest mortality rate in Europe, the United Kingdom is at the epicenter of the continent struggles to contain Covid-19. Daily infections are at a record high – one in 50 people in England now have the disease – while Prime Minister Boris Johnson closed schools this week and ordered the population to stay home.

The medical team says it may be forced to send people out of hospitals if the latest blockade fails to quickly control a new strain of the virus that emerged in southeastern England last month.

Winter is already overwhelming health care and the virus means more patients are spreading through the corridors and others need to be treated in parked ambulances. The British Medical Association, which represents doctors, said the National Health Service is facing a crisis as rising infections combine with illness and burnout.

“There are so many thousands of patients coming,” said Tom Dolphin, 42, a consultant anesthetist at a London hospital. “The most worrying thing is that we probably haven’t yet seen the peak of patients who have been infected in the Christmas and New Year period. “

During 10 months of turbulence over his dealing with the pandemic, the UK government managed to keep the country’s esteemed NHS afloat and became the first western country to start immunizing its citizens. This now risks becoming an empty win while an accelerated vaccination program runs against an out-of-control virus.

Doctors pressured Johnson to take action across the country amid rising cases in recent weeks. But even at the weekend, the government was suggesting that schools would remain open.

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New treatments mean that a greater proportion of patients with Covid-19 are kept alive, but many still need to stay in the hospital due to breathing difficulties. This also puts pressure on capacity. The health system had already entered the pandemic of some 40,000 nurses.

For nurse Stuart Tuckwood, the most difficult blockade brings at least some relief, while the country desperately awaits the return of the vaccination campaign.

“People know how bad things are and how they are going to get worse if cases continue to escalate the way they are,” said Tuckwood, who works at a hospital in southern England and is also a national nursing officer in the Unison union. “We cannot trust that the vaccine is the magic solution. There can be no complacency about the capacity of the health service and staff to deal with this. “

The death toll in Britain was 76,423, according to Bloomberg Coronavirus Tracker, after the deaths exceeded those of Italy in the past few days. The number of daily cases on Tuesday rose to almost 61,000 – the highest since the coronavirus spread across Europe, although also after the United Kingdom accelerated testing.

Johnson said in a televised speech on Monday that the number of Covid patients in hospitals in England was 40% higher than the first peak in April. Pressure on intensive care units was already strong during the holiday, with figures published in the Health Service Journal showing that they were operating at over 110% of capacity in London and south east England at the end of December. Some patients had to be transported hours away to the southwest or north of England.

The dramatic escalation led Johnson to bet on several fronts. In addition to blocking the nation again, the government is trying to rapidly increase the number of people taking the first dose of the vaccine, postponing the second dose.

The goal is to increase the supply of the two vaccines being launched: one from Pfizer Inc. and partner BioNTech SE and the other from AstraZeneca Plc and the University of Oxford. The move won the support of some health experts, but raised concerns for others, including Pfizer.

The aim is to maximize the number of vulnerable people who will obtain at least some protection in the shortest possible time. UK health authorities have pointed to data showing that vaccines provide considerable defense after a single dose, with the second injection important in the long run.

Johnson said on Tuesday that 1.3 million people were immunized, or almost 2% of the population, by far most of Europe. Germany vaccinated 317,000 people by January 5 and France only 2,000, according to Bloomberg’s Vaccine Tracker. The London government has set a goal to vaccinate nearly 14 million people by mid-February.

The reality, however, is that Britain has little choice. New infections in the UK – 720 per 100,000 inhabitants in 14 days – occurred in more than double the rate for Italy or France at the end of December, according to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control.

There are almost 9,000 more coronavirus patients in hospital beds than on Christmas Day – the equivalent of almost 18 hospitals, according to the NHS Providers group.

The stress on doctors and nurses is increasing and “it really triggers the need for a new way of thinking,” said Doug Brown, chief executive of the British Society for Immunology. “The risk of not doing this is much greater.” In a normal world, the country would keep the dosage tested in clinical trials, he said. “We are not in a normal world at the moment.”

Protecting the NHS resonates in Britain. During the first block in the spring, people stood at the door and applauded health workers every Thursday night, and the children painted rainbows to stick on the front windows. The government is counting on a tired nation to step up again, with the NHS now the key to launching vaccines.

Read more: UK hospitals face a breaking point as Johnson prepares for blockade

Finding and mobilizing enough staff to carry out about 2 million vaccinations a week is not an easy task and will have a major impact on health care, he said. Richard Sloggett, former special adviser to Secretary of Health Matt Hancock.

“It certainly looks like we’re getting to the point where we are betting on a vaccine program,” said Sloggett, senior researcher at the Policy Exchange think tank.

The hope is that the blockade will work before hospitals are unable to deal with the situation, said Dolphin, the anesthesiologist, who is also a member of the BMA board. The restrictions are expected to apply in England until at least mid-February, although Johnson signaled at a news conference on Tuesday that there may be many more months of restrictions ahead.

“It’s getting to the point where the service is not what we would normally recognize as suitable for the UK,” said Dolphin. “Or suitable for any country, in fact.”

– With the help of Suzy Waite, Neil Callanan and Eric Pfanner