NAIROBI, Kenya – After months of denial, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed admitted this week that Eritrean troops were fighting in Tigray, the war-torn region in northern Ethiopia, where the brutal conflict between pro-government fighters and has become synonymous with atrocities against civilians.
On Friday, under increasing American and international pressure, Abiy went a step further and announced that the Eritrean soldiers had agreed to return home.
Abiy’s statement, issued after a meeting with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, offered a faint glimmer of hope amid a torrent of horrific reports about widespread looting, massacres and sexual violence in Tigray.
Still, it was unclear whether all Eritrean forces would leave Tigray or just those posted along the border, and how quickly they would go.
United Nations officials and human rights groups blamed many of the worst violations on Eritrean soldiers – even when Isaias, the notoriously secretive country’s dictatorial leader, denied that his troops were present in Tigray.
Abiy flew to meet Isaias on Thursday, days after an envoy sent by President Biden to pressure the Ethiopian leader to stop the carnage and reinforce American calls for the immediate withdrawal of troops from Eritrea. The United States has publicly asked for Eritrean soldiers withdrawn from Tigray.
On Friday, Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Ghebremeskel appeared to confirm Abiy’s statement that the withdrawal of Eritrean troops was agreed. Public statements by both governments “underline the full agreement and consensus on all the issues discussed,” he said in a text message after Abiy left the Eritrean capital, Asmara.
The Eritreans crossed the border into northern Ethiopia shortly after Abiy launched a military campaign in Tigray on 4 November, accusing Tigray’s rebel leaders of orchestrating an attack on a major military base and trying to overthrow the federal government.
As the fighting intensified, reports of serious abuses against civilians began to surface in Tigray. Ethiopian soldiers, allied fighters from Ahmara militias and loyal fighters to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front faced charges.
But United Nations officials and human rights groups have pointed to Eritrean troops as responsible for many of the worst violations. Last weekend, Abiy spent five hours talking to US Senator Chris Coons, who was sent to Ethiopia by President Biden to convey his alarm at the deteriorating situation.
In a briefing to reporters on Thursday, Coons said the talks were “straightforward” at times, and that Abiy reiterated his promise to investigate human rights abuses in Tigray, including “credible reports of sexual violence as a tool for war.”
But Abiy has not fulfilled these commitments before, said Coons, and the United States intends to maintain the pressure. “It is the stocks that will matter,” he said.
On Friday, a State Department spokeswoman welcomed Ethiopia’s announcement, calling it “an important step” in slowing the escalation.
In a mark of impunity that has come to characterize the Tigrayan conflict, Ethiopian soldiers dragged civilians off a bus on a major road in Tigray and executed four of them in front of aid workers at Médecins Sans Frontières, the group said in a statement Thursday. market. .
Eritrea and Ethiopia have been fierce enemies for most of the past three decades and waged a border war in the late 1990s that claimed tens of thousands of lives. But they reconciled in 2018, signing a historic peace agreement shortly after Abiy came to power.
The pact earned Abiy the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize and helped Isaias, one of the most repressive leaders in the world, emerge from international isolation. After the Tigray war broke out in November, however, critics said the two leaders were united mainly by their shared hostility towards Tigray leaders.
It was unclear on Friday whether Abiy’s announcement signaled a potential breakthrough at the end of the fighting in Tigray or another feint by two leaders under international pressure.
In his statement, Abiy said that Eritrea agreed to withdraw its forces “from the border with Ethiopia”, where, with immediate effect, Ethiopian soldiers would assume the role of border guard.
But it was not clear whether that included Eritrean troops stationed in the depths of Tigray, where many of the worst atrocities occurred.
Amnesty International blamed Eritrean forces for the massacre of hundreds of civilians in Axum, a city in northern Tigray. Survivors of Tigray’s sexual violence blamed the horrific attacks on Eritrean troops.
A senior UN official told the Security Council on Thursday that more than 500 cases of rape were reported at five clinics in Tigray, although the actual number is likely to be much higher.
“Women say they were raped by armed actors, they also told stories of gang rape, rape in front of relatives and men being forced to rape their own family members under threat of violence,” said official Wafaa Said. .
Exactly how many Eritrean troops are stationed inside Tigray and where it is unclear. Much of the region remains off-limits to aid workers and reporters, and sporadic fighting continues in rural and mountainous areas.
Still, the departure of all Eritrean troops would likely pose a serious military challenge for Abiy.
The Ethiopian army fragmented in the early days of the war, when hundreds and possibly more Ethiopian soldiers deserted the rebel side, according to Western officials. Since then, Abiy has regained control of a Tigray strip with the help of his allies – Amhara fighters and Eritrean soldiers.
If Eritreans leave en masse, some analysts say, government forces may find it difficult to maintain control over the parts of Tigray they now control.