If Republicans want to come, great. Democrats argue that Republicans can vote for budget reconciliation. If Republicans don’t like the plan, they can keep talking to the White House, but what is behind the Monday night meeting – and all the messages from the White House in previous days – is that the president is just willing negotiating a lot. The $ 618 billion Republican proposal, without state and local funding, will not be enough. Period.
In short: President Joe Biden has the House. Biden has the Senate. It has a procedural process that gives it a chance to approve a $ 1.9 trillion relief package with only Democratic votes, and conveniently, it is a process that Republicans used just four years ago to crack down on a tax plan and try to revoke Obamacare.
We’ll look at the second point, but when you’re talking about giving people direct checks, expanding unemployment insurance, giving people more money to buy food, and raising the minimum wage to $ 15 an hour, you’re not talking about unpopular ideas . Democratic aides repeatedly tell CNN that this is not revoking Obamacare. They are giving people something, not taking something away, and it encourages members to act quickly and decisively and not give in to saying that they need to unify the country by bringing Republicans on board with a plan.
This does not mean that the impact this could have on debt and the deficit is not real. This does not mean that Republicans will not argue that such a plan is not necessary. It is true that there are still billions of the last package that did not come out the door. Many Republicans argue that it is irresponsible to spend more when you don’t even know what you need. These are arguments that they can make to the public. But Democrats are confident they can win the public struggle.
A little about mechanics
A Democratic aide familiar with the Senate process told CNN that the plan is for the House and Senate committees to work in coordination over the next week and a half to draft the legislative text. Throughout the newsroom, Democrats in the Senate will be consulting with the Senate parliamentarian to ensure that their plans are actually allowed under the rules governing reconciliation. The Chamber will vote to approve the plan first. Then, the Senate will move.
Before the Senate goes to plenary, they will engage in various meetings with Republican Senate officials and the Senate parliamentarian on the merits of each provision they wish to include and whether the provisions meet the strict rules of what can be allowed through reconciliation. . The fight for the minimum wage is expected to be massive here, but there will be others as well. This process takes place in private during several meetings, but it is crucial in determining the scope of what Democrats can do.
The goal is to finish and sanction the bill by March 14, the Senate aide told CNN. This gives lawmakers some time to approve this before unemployment insurance runs out in late March.
It’s a huge task, but Democrats are not working from scratch here. They will take Biden’s $ 1.9 trillion plan and make it an account. Much of the work has already been done on the front end to ensure that each committee has the amount of money needed to make this plan a reality. The House and Senate budgets gave reconciliation instructions to 12 and 11 committees, respectively. This is too much. It will be a mess. Aides say they are very clear about what they should do here and are confident that it can be done quickly.
Still, there will be some intraparty schisms about the final appearance of this project. Not all Democrats feel comfortable raising the minimum wage to $ 15, for example. In New York, that amount may make sense. In Montana and West Virginia – where the cost of living is much lower – this type of minimum wage can be the difference between whether a company remains profitable or not. That is why some Democrats argue that any increase in the minimum wage must be regional, while others argue that it must be implemented gradually.
A reminder: TThe twists and turns of reconciliation will be countless. This process is complicated, boring and will force Democrats to go through a complicated negotiation and stay together in a way that they have not had to in recent years. Add to that the fact that Biden has promised to continue talking to Republicans throughout the process and the reality that the Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, cannot lose a single member of his caucus and it is fair to say that Democrats need to operate very close to do this perfectly in mid-March. Approving budget resolution is the easy part. Take everyone to the other side of this process without massive internal reaction? This is much more difficult.
On the division of power: why Democrats do not yet control committees
The organization’s resolution has not yet been approved.
This is the same resolution the organization has been holding for more than a week because of a disagreement over whether Democrats should or should not promise in writing that the obstruction would not explode. Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell said he was no longer delaying the process after two Democratic senators officially declared that they had no plans to vote to remove the obstruction anytime soon.
But the negotiations dragged on. They have been productive. They are close to an agreement, but have dragged on among employees. The initial fight over the obstruction delayed important negotiations over other complicated and procedural negotiations. The hope and expectation were that the deal would be very similar to the 2001 power division deal, but that 2001 deal lasted only a few months and some operational changes had to be made. It is taking, perhaps even longer than it should have, but advisers say they are close. It can be completed on Tuesday.
The point is that we are now seeing some real effects of what this means for the way the Senate is governed. Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Carolina who is technically still the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, announced late on Monday that he would not allow a hearing to advance over Biden’s attorney general, Merrick Garland, on February 8 because he argued that Attorney General confirmation hearings usually take two days. The Senate impeachment trial begins on February 9. Again, aides say the party leaders are close. We’ll see if that gets resolved on Tuesday.
Keep an eye on Republicans
The Republican civil war continues on Tuesday morning.
We are watching to see if minority leader in the House, Kevin McCarthy, finally meets with Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene on Tuesday night and whether he expels her from his committees or expects House Democrats to make that change.
House Democrats have a Rules Committee meeting scheduled on a resolution to remove it from Budget and Education on Wednesday. A reminder that just because they approved the Rules panel resolution does not mean that it has to be approved. It is designed to be a fail safe to force McCarthy to act.
House Democrats will have a conference call at 9 am ET on Wednesday, where that question may arise. There is growing concern that forcing Greene to step down from the committees through a plenary vote could set a dangerous precedent for the future if Republicans retake the House and then use the measure to expel Democrats from their committee duties. This is usually a call made by the leadership. Giving votes to the entire House is extremely unusual.
Also scheduled for Wednesday is the GOP conference meeting, which is due to take place in person and is likely to be a forum where House Republicans can finally discuss the future of MP Liz Cheney. Aides told CNN that Cheney has been making calls and listening to members of her conference for several weeks since she voted to impeach former President Donald Trump for inciting an uprising on January 6. The juxtaposition here is striking. Republicans are calling for the removal of a member of his leadership for voting for impeachment, while many members have remained silent about Greene’s actions and words. If you want to know whether Republicans have changed from Trump, the only evidence you need is this dichotomy. The short answer: they don’t.
