The coronavirus exposed the “catastrophic effects” of ignoring long-term risks, such as pandemics, and the economic and political consequences could cause more crises in the years to come, according to the World Economic Forum.
The WEF’s annual survey of global risks lists infectious diseases and subsistence crises as the main “clear and present dangers” in the next two years. Indirect effects, such as asset bubbles and price instability, raise concerns over 3 to 5 years.
WEF said that most countries struggled with crisis management during the pandemic, despite some notable examples of determination and cooperation. This highlights how leaders need to be better prepared for whatever the next big shock is.
Risky business
WEF survey shows widespread concern about the crisis
Source: World Economic Forum
“The immediate human and economic cost of Covid-19 is severe,” said the WEF in the report. “The ramifications – in the form of social unrest, political fragmentation and geopolitical tensions – will shape the effectiveness of our responses to the other major threats in the next decade.”
While the impact of the pandemic is dominant at the moment, other events are likely to surface, according to the research. As in previous years, extreme weather is seen as the most likely risk, just before a failure in climate action. Infectious diseases are among the top five for the first time in at least a decade.
Digital inequality and the concentration of digital power are also seen as major concerns, with WEF managing director Saadia Zahidi warning of a “global fork in terms of growth and development”.
“There are parts of the world that have digital access and inclusion and that is where some parts of the workforce – not all – are able to continue, are able to adapt,” she told Bloomberg Television on Tuesday. “But there is this other part of the world where we don’t even have basic access to the Internet, basic access to electricity, basic access to water and this is where recovery and return to growth will be very different.”
Greater global risks
Probability of major risks occurring in the next 10 years
Source: World Economic Forum 2021 Global Risk Report
WEF recommendations for increasing resilience include combating misinformation, especially when coronavirus vaccines are launched. He cited an example of false information – that high concentration intake alcohol kills Covid-19 – which caused more than 700 deaths and almost 6,000 hospitalizations in Iran.
More broadly, he said that post-truth policies are “amplifying hate speech, increasing the risk of conflict, violence and human rights violations, and threatening the long-term prospects for advancing democracy.”
The forum also recommended a “holistic” risk analysis, investing in “risk champions” to encourage international cooperation and exploring new forms of risk management, such as public-private partnerships.
“If the lessons of this crisis only inform decision makers on how to better prepare for the next pandemic – instead of improving the capacities and culture of risk processes – the world will be planning for the latest crisis again instead of anticipating the next ”, said WEF said.
– With the help of Samuel Dodge, Francine Lacqua and Tom Keene
(Updates with Zahidi from WEF starting in the sixth paragraph.)