As vaccine launches increase – or, in some cases, advance – in countries around the world, the SARS-CoV-2 strain has launched some new own resources, mainly in the form of rapid genetic mutations. Some evidence indicates that variants from the past few months have made the virus more infectious or, in one case, possibly more deadly.
Variants of viruses are inevitable and often benign. The new coronavirus has probably mutated countless times without attracting the attention of epidemiologists. But new strains identified in the UK, South Africa, Brazil and California have stopped some infectious disease specialists.
Several studies indicate that the strain known as variant B117, prevalent in the United Kingdom, can be up to 70% more transmissible than the original virus. Two analyzes in California suggested that a new strain on the West Coast, called B.1.426, accounted for a quarter of the infections examined. As news emerges between peaks of infection and inoculation efforts, it may appear that the world has entered a race between the variant and the vaccine.
“Change through mutation is quite rapid,” said Dr. Irwin Redlener, pediatric physician and disaster preparedness adviser to New York Mayor Bill de Blasio. “We don’t know where it is going. This is the reality, that we don’t know what to expect. What worries us most is that it can mutate and become resistant to vaccines or partially resistant to vaccines. That would be awful. We could make changes to the vaccine, but that would slow everything down. “
Overall, the arrival of new threatening strains is unlikely to change the average person’s behavior, three epidemiologists and public health consultants told the Daily Beast. “In terms of vaccines and mitigation, that doesn’t change mitigation strategies because we know about mitigation work,” said Dr. Arnold Monto, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan and professor of public health. “But that just means that we have to be even more serious about following these types of rules.”
“I think this mainly reinforces the urgency of every aspect of responding to the pandemic,” echoed Dr. Joshua Sharfstein, vice president of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “Not only vaccination, but also contact tracking, precautions and general surveillance … it will take much more than vaccines, because we don’t have enough vaccines in the short term.”
The UK Strain
UK health officials announced the detection of a new strain in mid-December – just a week after becoming the first country in the world to start administering a vaccine. At a news conference, national health secretary Matt Hancock revealed that the new mutation was seen in more than 1,000 patients there, leading to a new wave of rigid blockages across the country. The strain was thought to date back to mid-September. In late December, its spread was linked to a massive increase in the number of COVID-19 infections across the county.
The phrase “more infectious” can be misleading, said Monto. The data on the new strain does not tell us, for example, that someone exposed to it will be infected faster than someone exposed to the old strain in identical conditions. It refers specifically to the virus reproduction rate.
“We will analyze this in terms of what we know,” said Monto. “What we do know is that this virus replicates better. In an individual, less of this virus is needed to cause an infection. How do we know that? We don’t know about this in terms of ‘people in a room and how many are infected with one variant compared to the other.’ But what is very clear is that this virus is more efficient and has taken over the old virus. This tells us that it has some kind of advantage in reproduction ”.
On Friday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced at a news conference that the dominant variant could be 30% more deadly than the original. The conclusions came from an article published by the New and Emerging Virus Threats Advisory Group – a study that was, Monto pointed out, based on a very small number of patients in just a handful of settings.
“Many other things can be related to an increase in mortality,” he said, “even when you have, as in the UK, a larger number of people in care. It’s based on small numbers, so we really can’t say anything right now. We cannot speculate. “
“It was a statement he made,” said Redlener of Johnson setting the alarm. “There was really not much evidence to go on. But he drew a conclusion and went public with it … For now, I will say that Boris Johnson should have kept his statement until there was more evidence.
The South Africa Strain
Shortly after the UK strain was announced, a variant called B.1.351 emerged in South Africa. The new strain shared some mutations with its British predecessor, according to the CDC. It also seemed to have a higher transmission rate. Most worrying about the South African strain, however, was a new mutation in its genetic code that some experts feared could reduce the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccines. Some preliminary studies – few of them peer-reviewed – found that the E484K mutation in the South African variant limited the effectiveness of antibodies by up to 50 percent.
“It’s definitely a concern,” said Redlener, referring to a report on the studies by Richard Engel of NBC. “It is a concern because a legitimate scientist mentioned it. What we don’t know is how reliable his studies were that led him to that conclusion. “
Monto found the conclusions less alarming, noting that the studies were based on a small body of research and very few real-world cases. “The end result is that they are trying to see in a laboratory whether the blood from the vaccines neutralizes the variants as well as it does with the original virus,” said Dr. Monto. “It seems so and even today there are several newspapers. One says his test is good. Another says it’s not that good, but it’s still good. “
Other strains
Another new variant has been detected in Japan among four travelers from Brazil, according to the CDC. Although relatively less is known about the Brazilian variant, Reuters reported on Friday that the new strain was responsible for almost half of the new infections in Manaus, the largest city in the Brazilian state of Amazonas.
Last summer, a strain of SARS-CoV-2 appeared in Denmark in association with the country’s mink-growing industry, according to the WHO. The country killed 17 million mink to prevent the virus from spreading to humans.
In California, scientists discovered a new variant in late December, not long after the state experienced the deadliest outbreak of the pandemic. According Los Angeles Times, two research groups observed the new form while looking for evidence that the UK lineage traveled west. Also highly transmissible, it now appears to be the fastest growing variant in the state. Despite the discovery, local authorities and the media largely blamed the residents, who claim to have stopped following the blocking guidelines.
“It is a very complicated issue – what is causing an outbreak in a particular place,” said Redlener. “It has a lot to do with basic compliance. But in addition to that, there may be some other strains that simply have not been identified. We are operating in the dark on a lot of things. It is a lot of guesswork and speculation. We just have to keep looking. “