California Recall: everything you need to know about the effort to recall Governor Gavin Newsom

California Recall: everything you need to know about the effort to recall Governor Gavin Newsom

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Recall leaders said late on Wednesday that they had far exceeded that goal, delivering more than 2.1 million signature petitions to county officials. But it is now up to these officials, who have until April 29 to complete verification of signatures and then report their results to the California Secretary of State.

ONE: At this point, it seems quite likely. Newsom’s sudden explosion of media interviews – and his promise to fight the recall – underline that his team is taking the recall threat very seriously. Proponents of the recall have organized themselves in all California counties and collected more than 2 million signatures, so that they would have protection if some signatures were duplicated or considered invalid for other reasons. And so far, the subscription validity rate is very high – one more reason why you are likely to qualify. The Secretary of State’s latest report in early February showed that of the signatures verified by county officials so far, 83.7% were valid. The recall organizers also hired a third-party company to verify the signatures before they were sent, eliminating many duplicates on the front end.

Q: If you qualify, how long would the recall go into the vote?

ONE: No one has a good answer for that yet, because there are a series of procedural steps that must be completed before the vice governor officially calls for a revocation election. But sources on both sides of the recall expect it to reach the polls sometime between August and December. First, however, there is a mysterious series of next steps.

After county election officials finish checking signatures in late April, the secretary of state has until May to inform counties whether the recall has been qualified. After that, any voter who signed a revocation petition has 30 business days to reconsider and withdraw his signature. Then, county officials conduct a second verification process to determine if there are still enough signatures. If the recall continues, the California Department of Finance and the Secretary of State present a cost estimate that is sent to the chairman of the state’s Legislative Budget Committee, Newsom, Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis and Secretary of State Shirley Weber. The budget committee has 30 working days to review the estimate. After Weber’s final approval, Kounalakis would be required to set a date for a revocation election that is no earlier than 60 days from that point and no later than 80 days.

Q: What will voters see on the ballot if they are qualified?

ONE: State voters will ask two questions. First, they want to vote “yes” or “no” by revoking Newsom. And two, who should replace him – an issue that is likely to be followed by a very long list of names, just as it did in 2003, when Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, replaced former California Governor Gray Davis, a Democrat.

Q: Can Newsom insert its own name in the dispute for question # 2 as a backup plan?

ONE: No. He is prohibited from doing so under state electoral law.

Q: Newsom was elected in 2018 with almost 62% of the vote in one of the most liberal states in the country. How did he end up in that situation?

ONE: In fact, this is the sixth time that Newsom’s opponents have tried to call him back, which demonstrates the polarized climate in America, even in a blue state like California. Initially, advocates of the recall were more focused on their ideological differences with the governor. The recall petition, which was written before the pandemic began, argues that Newsom failed to adequately address high state taxes, immigration, widespread homelessness, lack of affordable housing and forest fires, among other complaints. But the signature collection collided last summer with anger over the pandemic, attracting a broader group of Californians who were irritated by Newsom’s restrictive approach to containing the virus.

Q: Did Newsom take a more restrictive approach to controlling the pandemic than other governors? Why was so much anger directed at him?

ONE: Certainly. He instituted the first state-of-the-home order across the country last March and then another set of regional home-order orders in early December last year – based on the capacity of the intensive care unit in different regions of the state. He previously angered some Orange County residents by temporarily shutting out crowded beaches. Newsom was also repeatedly prosecuted by religious freedom defenders because of his initial restrictions on religious services, and he lost some of those cases in the Supreme Court. The recall also drew a broader support base, in part because many business owners believed that Newsom’s restrictions were economically disabling and, at times, arbitrary. West Coast school districts were also slow to open, despite Newsom’s efforts to speed up reopening. Newsom became the most visible target of all that anger.

Q: Why was your visit to the French Laundry in Napa Valley so important?

ONE: There is nothing that voters hate more than the hypocrisy of their leaders. And to his opponents, Newsom looked hypocritical and elitist when he attended a 50-year-old friend’s lobby dinner at the Michelin-starred French Laundry last November. At the time, he was encouraging residents to stay at home and avoid social gatherings with people outside the home. For many Californians who were already frustrated with the restrictions, it seemed that Newsom was playing with a different set of rules when he visited the restaurant. He apologized several times, including during a recent interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper, who asked bluntly, “What were you thinking?” Newsom said, “I didn’t make a mistake like that before or after.”

Q: Who is behind the recall effort?

ONE: The main proponent of the recall is a retired county sheriff sergeant named Orrin Heatlie, who joined 124 others to submit the petition. Its grassroots group, California Patriot Coalition – Recall Governor Newsom, focused heavily on collecting signatures and worked closely with another group called Rescue California … Recall Gavin Newsom, who raised a considerable amount of money for the effort. The second group included California Republican Party heavyweights, including longtime consultant Anne Dunsmore and former California Republican Party chairman Tom Del Beccaro. Both the Republican Party of the State of California and the National Republican Committee made large donations to aid the effort. Other big financiers include Orange County businessman John Kruger, real estate developer Geoff Palmer and venture capitalist Douglas Leone.

Q: What are the main metrics to watch for to determine whether the recall will succeed or fail?

ONE: It is important to remember that Democrats now outnumber Republicans by almost two-to-one, giving Newsom an advantage built at the polls – if he can get Democrats to come forward and defend him. After the holidays, when anger over the California pandemic was at a boiling point, about 52% of likely California voters approved Newsom’s job performance in a poll by the Public Policy Institute of California (a fall of 64% last May). But for a recall to continue, 50% of California voters must vote in favor. In the poll released in February, only 43% of likely voters disapproved of Newsom and that number could improve as more people get vaccinated and the virus decreases. By comparison, about 7 out of 10 voters disapproved of Davis shortly before he was called back with 55% of the vote.

Q: If the recall qualifies, who should we expect to apply to replace Newsom?

ONE: There are likely to be more than 100 names on that list – if not hundreds of names – because the requirements for entering the ballot are not expected to be very difficult to meet. The most prominent Republicans in the mix are former Newsom opponent John H. Cox, whom Newsom defeated by about 24 points in 2018, and former San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer. Richard Grenell, the former acting director of national intelligence for former President Donald Trump, also sparked a possible race during a recent appearance at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Orlando, which could excite Trump voters in California. (Cox and Faulconer plan to challenge Newsom when he is re-elected in 2022). Given the cheap filing fee and the expected minimum threshold for registration, the list could become a rather wild cast of characters.

Q: What is Newsom doing to stop the recall?

ONE: To begin with, after shrugging his shoulders and focusing on his duties as governor, he is now looking for a more engaged stance – doing a series of press interviews to try to define his opponents. Democrats launched a new effort – Stop the Republican Recall – the day before signatures were due earlier this week, and Newsom referred to the proponents of the recall as “anti-mask and antivax extremists” and “pro-Trump forces who want to overthrow the last election and oppose much of what we have done to combat the pandemic. ”

President Joe Biden is opposed to the recall, along with many California Democrats in Washington. As Newsom focuses on vaccinating Californians in the coming months, expect to see many prominent Golden State Democrats vigorously defending his record as governor as they work to redefine his image. Newsom’s current strategy was summed up in his March 15 tweet: “I’m not going to be distracted by this supporter, recalls the Republican – but I’m going to fight him.”

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