It was a season of changing the guard at AFC East in 2020. What had the potential to be a split decision dispute between Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots in Week 16 on national TV, now looks more like a formality.
The Bills are seven-point favorites against the Patriots inside Gillette Stadium, a place where Buffalo has won just three times in this century. Last week, Bills won the division title and now they must win to remain no. 2 seeds in the AFC playoffs.
Since the last time the Bills (11-3) and Patriots (6-8) played in Week 8 – a 24-21 victory for Buffalo – the Bills were 5-1 and averaged almost 35 points per game in those six games. If it weren’t for a low percentage conversion from Ave Maria to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 10, the Bills could be entering this game without losing since October.
So, what kind of team will Bills face in the Patriots, whose attack has been one of the most unproductive in the NFL this season? Quarterback Cam Newton has started 13 games this season and has just five touchdown passes with 10 interceptions. The Patriots have 20 players listed as questionable for this game and have felt the loss of several major contributors this season on both sides of the ball. Without Julian Edelman, Newton has struggled to get the ball to the game’s creators and the Patriots have an average of just 20.6 points per game, which is in 27th place in the league.
In week 8, Newton and the Patriots were playing at the end of the fourth period with a chance of winning the game, losing just three points. Defensive tackle balls Justin Zimmer forced a fumble with New England threatening inside the red zone, thwarting the late return offer. Newton had some success in that game, but he was facing a completely different defense from Bills. Security Micah Hyde did not participate in the match, Matt Milano was about to enter the reserve due to a chest injury, and Trent Murphy was still receiving significant pops.
Newton said this week that Bill’s defense that he will face this week is another difficult challenge.
“We just have to be prepared for their scheme and what they are trying to do,” said Newton. “We have seen in the film several times that they press and put the burden on the attack and challenge them to hit you. We have to stay on schedule offensively, not just moving the ball, but actually running even further in the red zone and actually scoring touchdowns. We cannot simply settle for field goals, we have to ensure that we maximize our goal opportunities. “
This is exactly what the Bills attack has been doing since the last time these two teams played. Allen and receiver star Stefon Diggs are on the verge of establishing franchise brands in their positions for a single season. Allen needs 360 yards passing in the final two games to pass Drew Bledsoe (2002) to the Bills record for a single season’s passing yards. If Allen launches four more touchdowns, he will pass Jim Kelly’s 33 TD record in 1991. Diggs already has the most catches in the team’s history (111), but will surpass Eric Molds’ record (1,368) if he hits 55 receiving yards in the final two games.
Allen could also bring John Brown back this week. The accounts have until 4pm on Monday to activate Brown outside the wounded reserve. He practiced for the second consecutive week and Buffalo launched receiver Jake Kumerow over the weekend, potentially opening up a spot for Brown.
Allen said he still expects a difficult game in the defense of Bill Belichick, even with Stephon Gilmore out of the lineup, as he must miss the rest of the season.
“AFC East games are difficult to win – especially winning a second time, after they have seen us,” said Allen. “They put us in the film and they have, without a doubt, the greatest coach of all time as coach of this team. They will always be ready and always prepared. “
BILLS vs. PATRIOTS
Beginning: 8:15 pm (Eastern Time) Monday at Gillette Stadium
TV: ESPN and ABC
RADIO: WGR 550 AM (Buffalo), WROC 950 AM (Rochester), WKTV 105.5 FM (Syracuse)
Line: Invoices for 7 (over / under 46)
PREDICTIONS
MATT PARRINO: The Bills ran over the Patriots the last time these two teams met and the Patriots are still struggling to stop the race. No matter which direction Bills OC Brian Daboll chooses to attack New England, Bills must be able to move the ball and score points. I look forward to a long day for Cam Newton, who will face a consistent passing race and must avoid mistakes against a secondary playing his best football of the season.
SCORE: Bills 31, Patriots 10
RYAN TALBOT:
Bills will arrive on Monday with a lot of motivation. The win could put Buffalo back in second position with the AFC one week to go. This could also lead to Buffalo’s first sweep of the New England Patriots since 1999. Buffalo enters the game relatively healthy and could welcome John Brown back to the wide receiver’s room. Without Stephon Gilmore in the line-up, Buffalo could take the ball to his main recipients against the weakened New England secondary. Running the ball may take precedence, however. The Bills ran with great success against New England in their first encounter and the Patriots are leaving a match where they allowed 250 yards on the ground for the Dolphins. Regardless of what Buffalo decides to do, the Bills are the best team and the healthiest team entering the game. That alone is enough for Monday Night Football.
SCORE: Bills 27, Patriots 13
SEE MORE INFORMATION
Can Josh Allen of Bills win a game of chess against Bill Belichick, Patriots defender? (5 things to watch)
Accounts release WR Jake Kumerow, paving the way for the team to activate John Brown
Cam Newton won’t be surprised if Josh Allen wins MVP, roots for Bills QB
Buffalo Bills can block AFC No. 2 seeds in Week 16 if all of those things happen