President-elect Joe Biden hopes to revive the nuclear deal with Iran after taking office, but that task is becoming increasingly daunting.
Driving the news: Iran announced today that it would begin enriching 20% uranium – within range of adequate levels for weapons – at its underground facility in Fordow.
- Hours later, Tehran announced that it had seized a South Korean flag tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, allegedly for pollution. This is another reminder to the world of Iran’s ability to disrupt a crucial boarding aisle.
- Meanwhile, the United States and its regional partners continue to fear possible Iranian reprisals a year after the U.S. attack that killed Iranian general Qasem Soleimani, as well as the most recent assassination of Iranian chief nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.
The big picture
In Biden’s view, Iran’s nuclear acceleration and latent regional tensions are consequences of President Trump’s “maximum pressure” approach following his withdrawal from the 2015 agreement. Biden is willing to lift nuclear sanctions and bring the United States back to I agree – if Iran will obey again.
- National security adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria on Sunday that after returning to the agreement, known as the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA), Biden will seek subsequent negotiations to curb Iran’s regional behavior.
- Iran’s ballistic missile program, Sullivan said, “must be on the table” in these negotiations.
The structure may appear to be in place, as President Hassan Rouhani said, Iran is also prepared to return to obey if the US suspends its sanctions. But today’s enrichment announcement underscores how thorny the process will be.
- If Iran enriches significant amounts of uranium to 20%, its nuclear escape time will become “very, very small”, says Ernest Moniz, who played a key role in the 2015 deal negotiations as Barack Obama’s energy secretary. “The main question is how much do they earn.”
Game status
The move towards 20% enrichment is part of a law – passed against Rouhani’s objections – which also calls for the suspension of UN nuclear inspections if sanctions on Iran’s banking and oil sectors are not lifted by February.
- That would be a “game changer” in addition to any of the measures that Iran has taken so far, Moniz says, because “then it becomes increasingly difficult to argue that we know they are not engaging in an arms program.”
Iran also demanded compensation for the damage of US sanctions, although Rouhani has shown some flexibility on that point.
- More challenging may be Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s insistence that Iran is unwilling to negotiate on issues beyond its nuclear program – at least not before the United States lift sanctions.
What is the next: Iran also has presidential elections in June, with a hard-line administration that is expected to replace Rouhani’s.
- Returning to business after being burned by Trump is an extremely controversial proposition.
- “It’s probably the kind of thing that is easiest for an outgoing government to do, as the JCPOA is not the most popular item in some political circles in Iran,” said Rob Malley, former Obama adviser for the Middle East and now president of the International Crisis Group. The direction of the trip will be determined by the supreme leader of Iran, adds Malley.
Where things are: If Biden wants a deal with Rouhani, he will only have five months to get it.
The opposition
Biden will face strong opposition to a quick return to the Israel and Gulf States deal, as well as Republicans and some Democrats in Congress.
What they are saying: Opponents argue that Biden received a strong hand from Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign and he should play it carefully.
“It is really an economic war that the US is fighting Iran “, says Gérard Araud, former French ambassador to the USA (2014-2019) and permanent representative to the UN Security Council (2009-2014).” It is true that this gives the United States an advantage. “
- There have already been some public comments from Israeli and Gulf officials discouraging Biden from returning to the 2015 agreement and only So trying to negotiate an agreement addressing regional issues.
- Sullivan’s argument is that the United States will be in a better position to negotiate these issues once Iran’s nuclear program is “back in the box”.
One of the most controversial points it will probably be sequencing.
- Iran says it will return to obey as soon as the US suspends sanctions, while Biden says it will suspend sanctions as soon as Iran again complies.
- This will require Iran to take a series of technical measures, including sending enriched uranium outside the country, likely to Russia.
- The process can be completed in about four months, says Moniz – probably faster if Iran does “everything out,” but slower in a stepwise process where Iranian measures are accompanied by easing of US sanctions.
The other side: The Trump administration tried to block Biden’s path back to the JCPOA, in part by accumulating sanctions on Iran for non-nuclear issues.
- Biden could lift these sanctions without Congressional approval – and Iranians may demand that he do so – but Iran’s hawks hope the issue will become another minefield of domestic politics.
What to watch
Iran’s recent nuclear acceleration, and his threat to expel inspectors is likely to be Biden’s main concerns in the short term – and these acts are clearly aimed at forcing him to act quickly.
Yes but: “Some measures that Iran could take could backfire,” adds Malley. “I think there comes a point where more pressure could mean that the Biden government will also change course.”
Flashback: European signatories to the JCPOA – France, Germany and the United Kingdom – worked desperately during the two years after Trump’s withdrawal to preserve the deal until the next election in the United States.
- Now, the candidate who prioritized the recovery of the Iran deal is two weeks away from the Oval Office.
- But even he recognizes that the way forward is uncertain. Tony Blinken, chosen by Biden as secretary of state, said the United States will work in partnership with Europe in Iran – whether or not Iran agrees to return to compliance.
European leaders and diplomats will try to facilitate dialogue between the US and Iran, says Araud. But he remembers years of Europe’s unsuccessful attempts to negotiate with Iran before the Obama administration addressed the issue.
The end result: “We knew from the beginning that the real problem was between the United States and Iran,” he says, “and that is even more true now.”