Biden’s agenda: Democrats prepare for internal clashes

“I think there is a real risk of political disappointment because expectations are relatively high,” said Connolly. “If the reason you’re not managing to resolve things is this archaic and racist procedure that requires a super majority of 60 votes to approve something, I don’t think it will work in today’s environment and, frankly, it shouldn’t.”

The sentiment echoed in the halls of both houses for Democrats – but particularly in the House.

“They are already enraged at the lack of progress in the Senate, not just for this Congress, but for previous ones,” said newcomer Dep. Jamaal Bowman, a Democrat from New York, referring to the party’s central voters. “Frustration, anger, despair.”

For such legislation to pass the Senate, it would take the support of 10 Republicans in the 50-50 chamber or a historic move to change the Senate’s rules so that the legislation can overcome an obstruction by just 51 votes. Without votes to change the rules, Democrats will have to strike deals with Republicans – something that has proved extraordinarily difficult in a highly polarized political climate.

“I think we can give a reasonable answer to that,” said Manchin. “If they think it’s just their way or the road, it won’t happen in the areas where I come from.”

Senator Angus King of Maine, an independent who joins the Democrats, said that, by changing the obstruction: “I think you should be careful what you want because you are frustrated now because you cannot fulfill everything you want to enact.”

“But it could be that in five or six years you’re really happy to be able to stop the other side from enacting things that are really bad,” said King, who says he will wait to see if the Republican Senate will seriously obstruct the next bills before decide whether he will support changes to the obstruction rules.

Progressives are shooting back.

“It is the responsibility of these senators to also look a little at their role,” said Representative Mark Pocan, a Wisconsin Democrat who co-chairs the progressive caucus in the House. “Yes, they represent their state, but also, if they delay legislation, it will have an effect across the country.”

‘To be honest, it gets harder’

The $ 1.9 trillion relief bill, a comprehensive measure that injects aid into the economy, small businesses, schools, the unemployed, and low- and middle-income families, was approved by Congress in Biden’s first 50 days in position – an effort that Democrats consider essential to fulfill its campaign promise and respond to the crises caused by Covid-19.

To get there, progressive Democrats swallowed losses in relation to the minimum wage and agreed to reduce weekly unemployment benefits. Moderates supported a higher price than they would have otherwise allowed – all in the name of bringing the project to the president’s table in the middle of a national emergency.

Now, talking about making some of the account’s provisional items – such as the expansion of the child tax credit – permanent is already generating an intra-party debate.

“The question is how it would be compensated, how it would be paid,” King said when asked if he would support a permanent expansion of the tax credit. “I really think there is a limit to what we can borrow.”

King added, “I think we should start paying for things.”

Meanwhile, some Democrats do not see the next items on Biden’s agenda as an emergency that requires immediate action, arguing that Congress should deliberate in a much more methodical manner.

Intra-party debate on infrastructure and immigration

In fact, one of the next big tests will be on a huge infrastructure package that some Democrats have already estimated could cost trillions, as they begin to debate how to finance such a plan and how much of its costs must be offset.

Democrats will have to reconcile how much of the infrastructure package should be focused on roads, bridges and broadband and how much will be focused on expanding the so-called clean energy agenda, which can be difficult for moderate members of districts where fuel-based industries fossils are great employers.

“It’s difficult,” said Rep. Dan Kildee, a Democrat from Michigan. “It will be, but whether it is Senator Manchin or anyone else, they will have to look at the whole legislation. It will be difficult.”

Infrastructure challenges are not just what to include in the bill, which can cut urban and rural divisions and confuse party lines, but how and if you pay for it.

After approving $ 1.9 trillion, which was sued for more trillions of government spending to fight the pandemic, many Democrats argue that at least part of the package’s costs should be offset. But there is no consensus on how to do this.

On Thursday, House majority leader Jim Clyburn rejected suggestions that the gasoline tax be raised, a common option that some Democrats have defended in the past.

“Whatever the payment, it must be fair and equitable,” said Clyburn, a Democrat from South Carolina. “This whole thing of saying, ‘let’s just raise the gas tax’ is unfair to the rural population. have tractors and trucks. “

House Ways and Means President Richard Neal rejected the idea that an infrastructure package would be more challenging. But when pressed by CNN about whether there was an agreement on how to finance such a plan, the Massachusetts Democrat said he did not want to enter these discussions. Its own infrastructure package, which left the House last year, never provided a way to pay.

“I’m not going to make a payment or talk about these things until we really have an architectural membership for that,” said Neal.

The other big question: what parliamentary tactics to use to pursue a huge infrastructure bill. Republican senators, including decisive votes such as Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, are rejecting the idea of ​​using a budget process known as reconciliation to allow the bill to pass only with the support of Democrats, a tactic Democrats used to pass. the $ 1.9 trillion relief bill.

And Manchin himself has vowed to block such an effort if Democrats do not try to win Republicans first, a clear sign that legislation must progress slowly, as Democrats see Memorial Day as their deadline for advancing it in the Senate.

But there are other items that can also stop.

In immigration, Democrats face problems within their own ranks. A comprehensive bill that would have given millions of immigrants a path to citizenship has yet to receive the support needed to pass the House floor – partly because some moderates argue that they do not see a path to Senate approval and do not want to vote on a controversial bill that is dead when it reaches the other House.

“It takes time to get members and just make them comfortable,” a Democratic Chamber member told CNN of the process in which they were involved. “If you are going to make the members walk on the board, you have to tell them which way it is. Senator (Chuck) Schumer and Senator (Dick) Durbin should work with us and tell us how it is. ”

Instead, House Democrats are trying to pass two more bills – one aimed at farm workers and one for undocumented young immigrants, known as Dreamers – in the next week. The comprehensive immigration bill is expected to be discussed in the committee next month, but members say it will take time to obtain the support needed to put it on the table.

Even so, these measures will still need 60 votes to advance in the Senate.

“This place should be based on concessions,” said Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat from Montana. “I have a different perspective from the people on the far left and the far right. I think you have to do the best you can – and that’s what you do.”

Senator Chris Murphy, a Democrat from Connecticut, said that while the obstruction should be on the table, there is still a chance to strike bipartisan deals on all these important items ahead of the 2022 midterm elections.

“I don’t think the American public is concerned with the rules of this place. They just want us to do things,” said Murphy. “I worry that the only way for you to pass anything in the Senate is to change the rules. I don’t accept that. I just don’t.”