The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Detroit Tigers 9-3 on Saturday, but the results for individual players trying to make the final list of 26 players are all that matters. And as these list decisions get closer, the big picture of the initial 2021 list starts to take shape.
We’ll get the bad news out first. Casey Mize has no chance to start the rotation right now. In the long run, our perspective on the previous general first choice has not changed. He should become a good starting pitcher over time, but he’s not there yet.
Mize started and was unable to get out of the third entry on Saturday, losing six races won in four strokes and three walks, eliminating three. Bryce Harper greeted Mize with a two-run shot to the deep right center of a fourseamer in the first inning. It was Didi Gregorius who put the emphasis on the beat, throwing a slider hanging deep to the right field for a grand slam in the third inning, and knocking out Mize with only one eliminated registered on the board.
The problem for Mize remains the weak command, especially the fast ball. As we have repeatedly noted in our benchmarking reports, this has been a constant topic, even during its excellent 2019 season at the Double-A level. The speed is consistently 94-96 mph, but it decreases slightly due to the lack of Mize extension for the board. Now, with the major league hitters refusing to offer heaters around the zone, his mediocre fastball command is leaving him exposed when he falls behind in the count. He has to be more precise to stay ahead of the major league hitters and allow his divider and slurve to work for him. On Saturday, he was also pulling out many dividers on the ground, which did not help at all.
The Tigers, somewhat obtusely, highlight their three punchouts, and you will see that the secondary pitches remain dangerous, but considering the amount of quality trash that Mize throws there, it is disconcerting to see the hitters identify the fastball so consistently . In the interest of objectivity, we will show you the two homers that he also allowed.
Akil Baddoo is not going anywhere
Akil Baddoo will not be returning to the Minnesota Twins. We can say that with almost certainty. The choice of Rule 5 of the Tigers was one of the most impressive players in the camp, despite having spent almost two whole years without playing a real game.
The 22 year old is hitting .389 so far with outrageous OBP and slugging numbers. He managed seven hits for just five eliminations in 25 appearances on the plate, while showing his positive speed in the field. On Saturday, he launched his first home run at spring camp, and was a stark on the right field line.
The only question now is whether the Tigers can make a deal with the twins for him and acquire all of his rights. GM Thad Levine needs to know that Al Avila is going to play chicken all year to cling to Baddoo like he did for Victor Reyes, but it would be better for the young outfielder to play in the higher categories this year, instead of jumping to the end of the A -ball for major leagues. Hopefully, a deal can be reached, but if not, Baddoo looks like the Tigers’ best outfield prospect after Riley Greene and there’s no way to let him go, even if he has to stay hidden in the squad for the entire season.
Alex Lange can eat Joe Jiménez’s lunch
It was another disappointing start for former player Joe Jiménez, while the prospect of relief Alex Lange continues to look like a viable technical future. Jiménez was generally effective this spring, but he didn’t look great on three outings. On Saturday, he walked two and allowed a well-deserved run on his work shift. Nothing terrible, and Jiménez was clearly trying to use his shift and slider to get them in shape. The problem? After a fall in speed in 2020, he sat at just 91-92 mph on Saturday. The great right-hand may see that improvement in the coming weeks, but without a mid-90s heater it is very difficult to see him as a viable major league reliever, and he has options left.
On the other hand, Alex Lange arrives to take the place where Jiménez is losing control. The former Cubs player in the first round came to Detroit in the business of Nick Castellanos and, since converting to relief, saw a nice jump in the speed of the fastball. On Saturday, he entered the game relieved by Jiménez and was again showing 96-97 mph with a good life to match his difficult corner at 85 mph. Lange’s rigid, high-effort delivery remains unrefined, and he may not be able to locate the heater well enough to handle a major league role yet, but he is coming up strong and will almost certainly make his debut sometime this year.
Of course, with Derek Holland pitching well, and Jose Cisnero, Bryan Garcia, Daniel Norris and Tyler Alexander all looking like locks on the pen and Buck Farmer with no options, there may not be many places available, but the club needs another powerful right-hander and now Lange, and potentially Jason Foley, they seem like better bets than Jiménez.
Torkelson leaves schneid
Spencer Torkelson had a difficult experience on his first look at a high-caliber professional pitch. This is not a real concern, but it should feel good to collect your first hit of the Grapefruit League season on Saturday. He led the eighth inning with a hard line drive to leave veteran reliever Michael Ynoa.
Ryan Kreidler continues to impress
The other important news came from the infielder Ryan Kreidler. Kreidler was the choice of the fourth round of the Tigers in 2019, after a college career playing as an intermediary and third baseman for UCLA. He didn’t do a ton to impress in a brief post-draft look at pro ball, but he was still on our periphery as a guy to keep an eye on. So far, he’s made it easy this spring, swinging the baton well and exhibiting good defensive work as well. He is still a marginal candidate who can achieve enough to become a utility, but without the potential power to take him to the majors in a full-time role. Still, he has the defensive ability to handle the shortstop and third base reasonably well, and the continued success this spring would increase his stock as he embarks on his first full year of pro ball at A-ball levels.