New Jersey’s 7th winter storm in February is coming. Let’s keep things really simple for this final update to the winter mess from Thursday to Friday. Let’s analyze the forecast using a set of simple, easy-to-read statements, so you know what to expect and can plan your day (s) accordingly.
The Bottom Line
While not a blockbuster, historic, bread-and-milk type storm, the whole of New Jersey is experiencing snow and ice mixing during the hours of Thursday, leading to a rapid deterioration in travel conditions.
Ch-Ch-Ch-Ch-Ch changes
I made exactly two adjustments to my forecast earlier this morning. 1.) I lowered my snow totals slightly to better match model trends and my feeling about snow vs. snow. hail. 2.) I moved part of Monmouth County to a higher snow range, given initial radar trends. Along with the “keep things simple” mentality, I chose to keep only three colors on my final snow / impact map, differentiating between significant impacts “mainly snow”, the “snow and hail” area and the southern part “with snow and rain “coast.
Snowy Start
By the time this book was written, it was snowing in almost the entire state. At around 9 am on Thursday morning, snow will fill the entire state.
The weight of the storm
The snow will quickly become moderate to heavy, around 3 pm on Thursday. About 75% of our total snowfall will occur during this window.
A remarkable calm
From late Thursday afternoon to evening and evening, the intensity of precipitation will decrease considerably and become more dispersed.
The final push of snow
Not over yet! The storm will still be with us for most of Friday, with a last wave of snow (and possible 1-2 “accumulations) from Friday in the late morning until early evening. Final flakes are expected around from 8pm on Friday.
The hail factor
As the average atmosphere levels heat up, the snowflakes mix and transition to an icy mixture of snow, hail and rain in approximately the southern half of the state around noon. (The “orange” and “light blue” areas of my map above.) This area will continue to see some degree of “winter mix” (instead of direct snow) until Friday, at least. The immediate south coast is likely to turn to rain at some point. Since ice pellets (hail) are denser than snow, they do not accumulate as efficiently. It’s still going to be a cold, muddy mess – and cleaning up that mess won’t be fun.
Accumulations
Although my weather and forecasting confidence are very limited this morning to build a complete “county by county” forecast, here is a quick analysis of snow accumulation across the state (usually following the snow map I pasted above):
—Atlantic County … 1 “coast, 3” west
“Bergen County … 5-7 “
“Burlington County … 2 “coast, 5” west
—Camden County … 3-5 “
—Cape May County … 1-2 “
—Cumberland County … 2-4 “
—Essex County … 5-7 “
“Gloucester County … 3-5 “
—Hudson County … 5-7 “
—Hunterdon County … 6-8 “
—Mercer County … 6-8 “
—Middlesex County … 6-8 “
—Monmouth County … 4 “strand, up to 8” inside
—Morris County … 4-7 “
—Ocean County … 2 “strand, 4” inside
—Passaic County … 4-6 “
“Salem County … 3-5 “
—Somerset County … 5-8 “
“Sussex County … 4-6 “
—Union County … 5-8 “
—Warren County … 4-6 “
I included a “more” in my snow map, to indicate that northeastern New Jersey could see some snowfall totals up to 10 inches.
Also remember that light to moderate ice formation (due to hail and freezing) is a concern for the southern half of the state. These are the “orange” and “light blue” zones on my map above.
Coastal floods
It’s not a big concern this time, I’m happy to say. But on Friday, even an extra foot of water in tidal streams can cause small floods, especially in vulnerable areas that tend to flood with each storm.
Warnings
ONE Winter storm alert is in effect for NW Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, inland Monmouth, Salem, Somerset, Sussex and Warren counties until 10am on Friday.
A less severe Winter weather warning covers almost the entire state until Friday.
There are currently no warnings for the coastal county of Cape May.
The extended forecast
After the storm passes, our weather pattern will finally calm down. There are no major storms on the horizon.
The weekend will be sunny and dry, but cold. The highs will only reach the 30s, with a strong breeze adding a touch to the air on Saturday.
Our next storm system will arrive on Monday afternoon. It is a high-speed clipper system that will drop some snow over North Jersey and rain over South Jersey. About an inch of buildup is possible – not a big deal, but possibly enough to complicate the roads for the ride on Monday night a little.
We’re in the air!
We will be on your radio and computer with the latest information on storms all day, all night and every Friday as well. Be smart, stay safe and warm!
Dan Zarrow is the chief meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecasts and real-time weather updates.