WASHINGTON (AP) – Arguments begin Tuesday at impeachment trial Donald Trump on allegations that he incited the violent crowd that invaded the United States Capitol on January 6.
A look at five key questions about what to expect when senators hear the case against the former president in the same chamber that was surrounded by insurrectionists:
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WILL TRUMP BE CONDEMNED?
It is unlikely. While many Republicans were harshly critical of Trump for telling his supporters to “fight like hell” and go to Capitol Hill, his criticisms have since softened.
The change was evident during a test vote on January 26. Only five Republican senators voted against the motion to end the trial.
A two-thirds vote of the 100 Senate members will be needed to condemn Trump on the impeachment charge, which is “inciting insurrection.” If all 50 Democrats voted to condemn him, 17 Republicans would have to join them to reach that limit.
Most Republicans avoided defending Trump’s actions on the day of the riot. Instead, lawmakers argued that the trial is unconstitutional because Trump is no longer in office. Democrats and many legal experts disagree.
After the January test vote, many Republicans indicated that Trump’s acquittal was a foregone conclusion.
“Do the math,” said Maine Senator Susan Collins, one of five Republicans who voted to move ahead with the trial. Senator Lindsey Graham, RS.C., said he thought the vote was a “floor, not a ceiling” for Republican support for absolution.
Still, some Republicans said they were waiting to hear the arguments at the trial. Ohio Sen. Rob Portman voted for the attempt to resign, but said constitutionality “is an entirely different matter” than whether Trump is guilty of incitement.
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HOW DO TRUMP LAWYERS SET UP A DEFENSE WITHOUT ANNOYING THE SENATE?
It is a difficult needle to thread. The Trump team will likely try to remove the emotion from the case and focus on legal and practical arguments against the conviction.
In their first filing for the trial, their lawyers made it clear that they will challenge the constitutionality of the trial now that Trump has left the White House. This could provide an answer to Republican senators who are inclined to absolve the former president without condemning his behavior.
The defense may also argue that the trial is useless with Trump no longer being president, because the removal from office is automatic punishment for an impeachment conviction. Democrats note that, after a conviction, the Senate may also prevent Trump from taking public office in the future.
As defense lawyers are forced to fight head-on with the violence and chaos of January 6, they will likely admit the horror of that day, but will blame the protesters who invaded the Capitol. Trump’s lawyers claim that Trump never incited the insurrection.
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HOW DO HOME IMPEACHMENT MANAGERS ATTRACT Skeptical REPUBLICANS?
It will not be easy. For prosecutors, the end result is that the riot would not have happened without Trump, so he must be held responsible.
It is a simple case that Democrats do not need to be exaggerated, especially since five people died in the chaos and the senators themselves were victims. The Senate was evacuated quickly as the rebels were pushing up the stairs near the chamber. After the senators left, the rebels invaded and searched the lawmakers’ tables.
In a petition filed last week foreseeing their arguments, House impeachment managers used sharp images and emotional appeals to argue Trump’s guilt.
Their action said the senators were “a few feet” from the mass protesters, and noted that those outside “wearing Trump’s paraphernalia pushed and punched Capitol cops, gouged out their eyes, assaulted them with pepper spray. and projectiles. ”
In the Chamber, impeachment managers wrote, “terrified members were arrested in the Chamber; they prayed and tried to build improvised defenses while the rioters destroyed the entrance … some members called their loved ones for fear of not surviving the attack by President Trump’s insurrectional mob.
These scenes will come to life at the trial. Prosecutors are expected to play a video of the attack during their presentations.
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DO WE HEAR TRUMP?
This does not seem likely. He rejected through his lawyers a request from impeachment managers to testify. A subpoena seeking to compel your testimony is not expected at this time.
Trump also no longer has access to Twitter, which he relied on extensively during his first impeachment trial last year to attack the case against him and retweet messages, videos and other posts from Republicans who disagreed with Democrats.
With Trump at his Florida resort, his lawyers will have to present arguments on his behalf. Democrats have promised to hold back Trump’s reluctance to testify against him at the trial, but the argument may not resonate. It is unclear whether Republican senators – even the many who are likely to absolve him – really want to hear from him.
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WHAT HAPPENS IF TRUMP IS PURCHASED?
The likelihood of Trump’s acquittal worries some senators, who fear the consequences for the country. Some have suggested the possibility of censoring Trump after the trial to ensure that he is punished in some way for the riot.
But there may also be another way for Congress to prevent Trump from holding a future position.
In an opinion article published last month in The Washington Post, Yale law professor Bruce Ackerman and Indiana University law professor Gerard Magliocca suggested that Congress could appeal to a 14th Amendment clause that it aims to prevent people from occupying federal positions if they are considered to have “been involved in insurrections or rebellions against” the Constitution.
Professors wrote that if the majority of votes from both houses agree that Trump was involved in an act of “insurrection or rebellion”, he would be barred from running for the White House again. Only a two-thirds vote of each Congressional chamber in the future could undo that result.